MichaelIngle

Retired lawyer/student of Chinese. At I comment on articles posted on 爱思想, also writing about Hu Feng on

[MichaelIngle @ChinaNotes]

@MarioNawfal That is one of the great things about London. A large proportion of the 2/3rds figure by the way were likely born in the UK.

[‏ً @omgsidewalks]

NO, you CANNOT walk 10,000 steps daily, get 8 hours of sleep, cook every night, clean every day, take care of a family, make time for your own hobbies, and still be productive at work every day. This is not just propaganda, it is rubbısh. Free yourself from it.

[Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش @citrinowicz]

At long last, I hope policymakers in Washington have come to understand a reality that has too often been ignored: the road to regional normalization runs through Ramallah, not Tehran.

The recent campaign against Iran only reinforced a fundamental strategic lesson. Despite repeated claims to the contrary, the prospects for meaningful normalization between Israel and key Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia, remain extremely limited without tangible progress on the Palestinian track.

The Palestinian Authority undoubtedly suffers from serious shortcomings and requires significant reforms. Yet it remains the internationally recognized representative of the Palestinian people and the only viable political framework through which a sustainable solution can be pursued. There is no realistic path to stability in either Gaza or the West Bank that bypasses the PA. While reform is necessary, making reform a precondition for any political progress risks turning it into an excuse for indefinite paralysis.

More broadly, the unresolved Palestinian issue continues to provide Iran with one of its most effective tools for regional influence. Tehran has long exploited the Palestinian cause to justify its intervention across the Middle East, strengthen its network of proxies, and challenge the legitimacy of Arab governments pursuing closer ties with Israel. Genuine political progress between Israelis and Palestinians would significantly weaken this narrative, strengthen the foundations for Saudi-Israeli normalization, It would also help repair and strengthen Israel’s increasingly fragile ties with Jordan and Egypt as Both governments face significant domestic and regional pressures related to the Palestinian issue, making progress on the Palestinian track essential not only for future normalization efforts, but also for preserving and deepening Israel’s existing strategic partnerships in the Arab world. and increase pressure on Iran as regional actors move toward greater cooperation.

Conversely, when Israel avoids meaningful movement on the Palestinian issue and allows the diplomatic process to stagnate, it inadvertently serves the interests of Iran and the so-called “Axis of Resistance.” The absence of a political horizon creates opportunities for Tehran to present itself as the primary defender of Palestinian aspirations and to expand its regional influence.

The immediate priority should be the creation of a credible political horizon. This requires advancing confidence-building measures, preventing unilateral actions that could fundamentally alter realities on the ground, and reestablishing meaningful political dialogue between the parties. These steps alone will not resolve the conflict, but they are essential for restoring the conditions necessary for future diplomacy.

Ironically, the confrontation with Iran demonstrated precisely why the Palestinian issue cannot be sidelined. Military pressure on Tehran may constrain some of its capabilities, but it cannot substitute for a political strategy that addresses one of the region’s central sources of instability. If the United States seeks to advance a broader regional architecture centered on normalization, integration, and the containment of Iran, progress on the Palestinian issue is not optional—it is indispensable.

#iran

[Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand]

Fascinating argument by Bloomberg's top energy analyst Javier Blas 👇: he argues that China effectively saved the world economy during the Iran war by absorbing the brunt of the global oil supply shock on its own, without visible economic damage.

According to his calculations, China "cut its average daily waterborne oil imports by the same amount as the combined oil consumption of Germany, France and the UK."

And, still according to Blas, they "did so without suffering economic harm" because they could rely on many levers: their huge strategic petroleum reserve, a massive surge in EV usage, their remaining coal-fired electricity capacity, and coal-to-chemicals replacing lost feedstocks.

Had China not been ready to absorb that blow, a good argument can be made that the economic damage to the West, and the world at large, would have spiraled far beyond what we saw.

Effectively, China's energy strategy at all levels (petroleum reserves, EVs, etc.) and its ability to withstand huge supply shocks paid off for everyone, not just for them.

It sounds awfully familiar: in 2008 too it was China's stimulus package and continuous buying of US Treasuries that averted a complete breakdown of the global financial system.

So twice in 20 years the country the West loves to present as a "threat" to the global economy effectively saved it from a US-made global economic disaster 🤷

[Trita Parsi @tparsi]

Many will dismiss this clip with Trump as empty talk and self-serving.

But they may miss a deeper message here: Trump is deliberately refuting the very premises of Israel's case against Iran: That Iran is ideological, irrational, and suicidal.

The first two premises eliminate diplomacy and detterence. The last one ensures that the only option the US will have is preventive war.

These are the premises you want in order to force the US into war.

Israel largely succeeded in getting Washington to adopt these assumptions.

It is not a small thing that Trump is directly tearing them apart.

[MichaelIngle @ChinaNotes]

@yarbatman You have made a good point about the need to address the underlying causes.

[MichaelIngle @ChinaNotes]

@HistorianZhang The only way to know a Chinese person’s name for certain is to have the characters in front of you.

[MichaelIngle @ChinaNotes]

@bedfordtwo @joncstone @rorysutherland It is true that I managed well in the past with a typewriter, writing paper, alarm clock, record player and physical newspapers and books, but our phones nowadays are a lot more convenient.

[MichaelIngle @ChinaNotes]

@HistorianZhang Chopped onions without cheese must be a Hong Kong thing. People eat different food in different places. That is one of the main pleasures of travelling (including to the UK).

[MichaelIngle @ChinaNotes]

@joncstone @rorysutherland I don’t see the problem either. Most phone contracts now provide huge amounts of data. Why bother with train wifi?

[MichaelIngle @ChinaNotes]

@dominictsz The videos of new stations in China make Shanghai’s Hongqiao Station look like a branch station. At age 75 my first thought is of the amount of walking involved.

[Pedro Sánchez @sanchezcastejon]

Más de 7.400 muertos, la mayoría civiles. Cientos de hogares, colegios y hospitales destruidos. Un incremento generalizado de los precios y miles de millones de euros en pérdidas, también en Europa. Este es el saldo que ha tenido el conflicto en Irán.

Confiamos en que el acuerdo de paz anunciado hoy sirva para poner fin a este sinsentido, que sea respetado por todas las partes, y que marque así el inicio de una nueva etapa en Oriente Medio.

Celebremos. Pero no olvidemos. Y aprendamos de una vez por todas que la guerra es un fracaso. El diálogo y la diplomacia son el único camino.

[Brendan Cox @MrBrendanCox]

10 years ago my wife, the mum of our kids & the MP for Batley&Spen was killed by a far right extremist.

At anniversaries I try to be optimistic about the future. But not this time. In the ten years since she was killed we have gone backwards & I fear our democracy is now at risk

[Tom Harwood @tomhfh]

It's often claimed that social media is producing a generation of inarticulate zombies.

But listen to this girl. Here she is on national TV without missing a beat getting across her points with confidence and good humour.

Too many people are reading into the joke at the end as if it's genuinely what she's going to do. If you think that, she is smarter than you. And she grew up with social media.

[MichaelIngle @ChinaNotes]

@DiaryofaSickGrl Obsessions about food started way back in the 1970s. I was there.

[MichaelIngle @ChinaNotes]

@GabrielAttal OK, where is the plan?

[Shashank Joshi @shashj]

Trump on Feb 28th. https://t.co/G29UoSstoC

https://t.co/zC21NPnHQq

[MichaelIngle @ChinaNotes]

@tomhfh Looks great to me. What is the problem?

[David Henig 🇺🇦 @DavidHenigUK]

Globalisation survives another scare, as is repeatedly the case. Inter dependency is a far greater force than national government wants to admit.

[MichaelIngle @ChinaNotes]

@marcosagusstinn @andrewhesselden Voters were told about many of these things, but they were mesmerised by promises of ‘sovereignty’, the message on the bus, and decades of press attacks on immigration.