Fortune大排档

投资路上，我们相互陪伴

[Teslaconomics @Teslaconomics]

I don’t think people truly understand what’s about to happen with 𝕏 Money.

This is Elon going back to his roots - back to https://t.co/xPHLRiKvNk - and building what he always wanted in the first place: one place that runs your entire financial life.

When he rebranded Twitter to 𝕏 in 2023, he said straight up that we’re adding the ability to conduct your entire financial world. He even said you may not even need a traditional bank account.

Most people brushed that off. And now it’s becoming real.

𝕏 Money has already been live in closed beta internally within the company. A limited external beta is expected soon, and they’ve already secured money transmitter licenses in over 40 states plus DC. 𝕏 Payments is registered with FinCEN. Visa is officially partnered. You’ll be able to fund your wallet instantly, send peer-to-peer payments, move money to your bank, and eventually use a debit card.

And I think this is just the beginning.

This will probably start as a simple wallet where you can send money as easily as sending a DM. With this technology, you can pay creators, pay subscriptions, pay whatever bills, shop inside the app, get paid inside the app, and much more.

Then, there will be high-yield savings, you can invest, you can get loans, have money market accounts, maybe even treasury access, cool smart cashtags that let you see live stock prices in your timeline and execute trades seamlessly, crypto integration, potentially full asset management… the list goes on and on… Elon literally said this is meant to be the central source of ALL monetary transactions.

Bro… think about that for a sec.

Your 𝕏 profile becomes your financial identity.

Everyone you follow is already there. Everyone you interact with is already there. That social graph becomes your distribution engine. Like, you won’t need a separate banking app, no need for a separate investing app, no need for a separate payment app… this all lives where you already spend your time. Right here on 𝕏.

Look at WeChat in China, which Elon always alluded to. Payments, messaging, shopping, investing - all integrated in one app. It handles $ trillions in volume and became deeply embedded in everyone’s daily life. Now 𝕏 is building the Western version of that, but with a more global reach, and xAI’s AI layered on top of all this.

Before you call me crazy, you have to understand how big this opportunity is.

Digital payments globally are measured in the tens of $ trillions of dollars annually. Even just capturing a small slice of that across hundreds of millions, and eventually a billion, users can change everything. 𝕏 already has the audience. That lowers customer acquisition costs significantly. Add fintech revenue on top of ads, plus float, plus lending, plus investing tools, and we’re talking about a completely different valuation profile.

Now, $44B for this company looks like the bargain of the decade… this was one of the main reasons I invested in 𝕏.

And if they execute the way they’ve executed at Tesla and SpaceX, this could truly fundamentally redefine how people handle $ .

Most people today still see 𝕏 as just a social media app. I see it as the foundation of a financial system layered on top of a global network. Ultimately becoming the “everything” app.

And this I believe is a once-in-a-generation opportunity.

Elon is calling this a game-changer.

I believe him.

[Fortune大排档 @Chris_dddddd]

@FromValue @ZackStacksKap @Forestinvest9

[John Huber @JohnHuber72]

META plans to spend $125b on capex this year. GOOG $180b (+100% growth yoy). Capex now 40% or more of expected sales at both. Just stunning.
My hunch is hyperscalers will slow down their rapid pace of capex spending sooner than the market expects. They won't be capital light, but I think capex takes a big step down in a few years or less as capacity catches up to demand. Will be painful if that occurs, but that might be a buying opportunity for LT investors. Stocks will be a lot cheaper, FCF will be much higher, and their core businesses are in most cases still dominant.
The stocks will get marked down because the perceived growth rate will be lower, but I'm not sure the growth rate or the ROIC's are as high as the market thinks to begin with...
Obviously there are lots of other ways this could play out (both very good and not so good), but this is one scenario that seems plausible, so worth considering it/preparing for it

[不缺木 @Forestinvest9]

软件股正在断崖式下跌。
过去一周，超过 5000 亿美元市值蒸发。
◾ $MSFT 收入超预期 → 股价却下跌超过 11%
◾ $NOW 业绩大超预期 → 股价暴跌 11%
◾ $CRM 报告增长 → 下跌 6%，而且还在继续跌

软件是不是“死了”？
回到 2024 年中，市场的共识非常清晰：
硬件被高估了，软件才是 AI 的下一个最大受益者。

于是软件公司开始疯狂投入。
Salesforce、ServiceNow 等公司高举“AI Agent”大旗，
砸下数十亿美元做并购、做平台、做生态。

但问题来了——

这些软件巨头花了好几年时间，
最终做出来的工具，却几乎没有真正解决客户的核心需求。
与此同时，生成式 AI 已经能够完成传统软件原本要做的事情，
而且做得更好、更快、还是实时的。

传统软件的逻辑是：
一次性构建系统 → 再去培训用户 → 写操作手册 → 强迫流程落地。
而 AI 模型的逻辑是：
动态适应任务本身，根据需求实时调整。
那么问题就变成了：
如果 AI 可以即时构建定制化解决方案，
为什么企业还要购买成千上万个软件席位？

结果就是，软件估值体系正在崩塌。

软件公司的远期收入倍数，
从 2021 年的 17x，
一路压缩到今天的 4.2x —— 历史最低水平。
过去支撑高估值的逻辑是：

高增长
强粘性的经常性收入

高度可预测的现金流
但现在，这种“可预测性”正在被正面冲击。

当然，并不是所有软件公司都一样。
在这场“情绪化抛售”中，
确实存在被错杀的机会。
但从整体来看——
这是自 2008 年以来最大的一次行业重新定价，
而且远未结束。

站在正确的行业轮动一侧，
可能会决定你未来 长期回报的成败。

[Stock Market Nerd @StockMarketNerd]

FCF-based valuation comp sheet:

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Correct.

My Tesla and SpaceX shares, which are almost all my “wealth”, only go up in value as a function of how much useful product those companies produce and service.

This means my “wealth” can only increase due to producing more products and services for the public. Moreover, anyone else who is a shareholder in Tesla and SpaceX, which incudes employees, participates in the upside of stock appreciation.

That is because I am a maker, not a taker like the Bernie Sanders type politicians of the world. They take and they’re on the take, because they cannot or will not make.

[Fortune大排档 @Chris_dddddd]

@KarelMercx @Forestinvest9

[Trung Phan @TrungTPhan]

OnlyFans CEO says the platform has paid out $25B to creators since 2016 (and majority of customers are in the US).

It makes profit of $11m per employee, more than Nvidia ($1m), Meta ($837k), Netflix ($621k), Apple ($585k) or Google ($545k).

[Stock Market Nerd @StockMarketNerd]

Thoughts on the $LMND Car Integration with $TSLA:

[Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath]

Here are two very important charts about the current AI boom.

Chart 1: Distribution Matters

Open AI is still the clear leader but, interestingly, they are loosing percentage share as the market grows. This is normal for a category leader but it’s curious who they are losing share to. It’s not really to other startups but incumbents with existing, massive distribution. This means that Google has a huge runway ahead of itself as their models and services become better. It also means that when/if Meta gets their act together, they will be able to gain share quickly. Lastly, it likely means that xAI will need to license Grok aggressively OR acquire existing distribution for their models - Snapchat, Pinterest etc.

Chart 2: Coding Agents are Slopware App-crappers

It should be concerning that this category is shrinking. I think the reason why is obvious but we aren’t allowed to talk about it.

The reason is vibe coding is a joke.

It is deeply unserious and these tools aren’t delivering when they encounter real world complexity (building quick demos isn’t complex) in any meaningful enterprise.

Hence people try, pay, churn. This trend is not good.

[Cathie Wood @CathieDWood]

Based on preliminary research, no company in history has grown EBITDA 41% at an annual rate, or ~30-fold, over 10 years. If Elon and team meet these goals, the impact will be much greater than on Tesla alone: productivity and real GDP growth will accelerate meaningfully, auto fatalities will drop more than 50%, and all Tesla shareholders—importantly, its employees and their families—will become more wealthy than they ever dreamed possible.

[Domien Van der Elst @DomienVdE]

Here are my thoughts on @Lemonade_Inc Car insurance‘s direct integration with Teslas.

POSITIVES:

$LMND and $TSLA are my two favorite companies (besides my own), so it’s lovely to see them integrate! 🫂

My biggest fear for Lemonade Car was that Tesla Insurance would inevitably be better at risk assessment due to superior sensor data (cameras) and that they would wall off this data from third parties. And I was afraid that with licensing FSD to other automakers, Tesla Insurance would come with it. But now @Tesla’s API allows insurers to access this data, proving Tesla and @elonmusk aren’t monopolistic and just want to do what’s best for the people, just like when they gave away their patents and opened up their charging network to other automakers. The whole point of Tesla Insurance was to lower the cost of ownership because other insurers were overcharging customers. If Lemonade can drastically underprice competitors, there is no more need for Tesla Insurance. 🔥

According to Grok, Lemonade is the only/first insurer to use this direct integration. 🥇

This integration offers a lot of benefits for Lemonade: easier sign-up, less hardware and shipping cost, better risk assessment, as well as many cross-sell opportunities to people who can afford Tesla’s so presumably they have above average value homes and stuff. 💰

A lot of Lemonade bulls are OG Tesla investors. This news introduces even more Tesla enthousiasts to Lemonade. @shai_wininger’s post has been widely shared on X, such that it already has 1M+ views! That’s spectacular when you consider our $LMND Community on X only has a few thousand members. 📢

This integration shows the flexibility of Lemonade’s Car platform. Basically, their AI can process any type of input and use it for risk assessment, including large real-time telematics data streams. This is a system built for scale and the general nature of it means in the future it will be relatively easy for Lemonade to launch new types of insurance (e.g. for humanoid robots). 🤖

NEGATIVES:

In a subsequent post, @shai_wininger publicly reached out to @elonmusk to ask for an even deeper integration regarding miles driven on FSD. That sounds great, but reaching out publicly could also mean Lemonade currently doesn’t have a close relationship with Tesla/Elon, such that those things could be discussed behind the scenes. It would be great if Tesla would fully embrace and highlight Lemonade’s integration, as does @OpenAI. 👩‍❤️‍👨

The fact that Shai highlights the benefits of the direct integration over other alternatives like phone data or a UBI device, shows they are dependent on the automakers to get the best data. Hopefully, all automakers will start sharing telematics just like Tesla does. If they don’t, direct insurance offerings from automakers remain a threat to all other insurers including Lemonade 🚘

[Fortune大排档 @Chris_dddddd]

@WealthyReadings @Forestinvest9

[Matt McClintock @MattJMcClintock]

I am bullish $LULU but have to admit the Wells Fargo note today is pretty good. Don't think the topic is Lululemon specific and it could be entirely wrong...but you have to tip your hat to a sell-side analyst that does actual work (Ike).

[Fortune大排档 @Chris_dddddd]

@OwlWealthy @honam @GenAIRoblox @Forestinvest9

[From Growth To Value @FromValue]

People who say AI brings no value, don't pay attention.

$SHOP's revenue per employee exploded after AI became the standard.

[Paper Bag Investor @PaperBagInvest]

Had a community member (who prefers to stay anonymous) send me the below $LMND web data:

"I’ve never seen such traffic on Lemonade’s website before. This is a crazy jump. They’re indeed entering more markets with more products, but still, that doesn’t always necessarily lead to a significant increase in website traffic — and here, we’re seeing a massive spike."

📈 Key Takeaways for July 2025: Massive traffic surge: From 2.879M in June → 3.406M in July (+18.3% MoM), setting a new all-time high.

Engagement quality stable: Duration and pages/visit only slightly changed — meaning this traffic spike is not just “low-quality clicks” but consistent user interaction.

Bounce Rate remains healthy: Above the low in June, but still better than February–April levels. 📷

Interpretation: This is five straight months of traffic growth, accelerating in the summer. Q3 2025 could be even stronger than Q2 if this trend continues

Sustained visit duration and healthy bounce rates mean users are staying engaged, likely driving higher policy sign-ups and renewals.

[App Economy Insights @EconomyApp]

🇨🇦 Shopify is now Canada's largest stock.

$SHOP popped 20% after a blockbuster Q2:

• Revenue up 31% Y/Y to $2.68B ($130M beat).
• Net income up 5x to $906M.

That mysterious $615M “Other” income? Mostly equity gains from Affirm, Global‑e, and Klaviyo.

[Daniel @danielisdizzy]

$NBIS is positioning itself to be the next $100B cloud powerhouse.

It’s $NVDA-backed, founder-led, and fully vertically integrated — designed from the ground up for the AI age.

At today’s ~$12B valuation, this could be a 10x play.

Here’s the breakdown ����👇

[Compounding Quality @QCompounding]

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