Chuck Sugnet

Connecting technology with people in Google Cloud's Office of CTO. Wrangler of data and children. Inherently curious but try to stay pragmatic. Opinions my own

[Chuck Sugnet @chuckcode]

@choffstein Great episode! Definitely worth listening too. BLNDX has handily beaten standard 60/40 since inception on both return and risk metrics. Eric's talks 5 years ago on Excess Returns and Flirting With Models made me rethink investment approach. Wish for higher vol version...

[Chuck Sugnet @chuckcode]

@MebFaber @SowingAlphaSeed @orrdavid @AlexMoonvest @fundstrat @Hedgeye @opptrader1 @CarterBWorth @FundsmithLLP @Ritholtz @WarrenPies Might be a KO... Huge congrats to you and team, great ETF and amazing performance in first year. Really sound asset allocation and capital efficiency makes it new baseline IMHO

[Chuck Sugnet @chuckcode]

@HML_Compounder @Tanner_HL @RuleByPowerLaw @DadInvest What about swapping out some of VT for UPRO & EFO or something similar for capital efficiency and adding little more trend?

[Chuck Sugnet @chuckcode]

@choffstein Any thoughts on using momentum/trend to help time rebalancing portfolios? "Strategic Rebalancing" paper seems to suggest simple heuristics delaying rebalancing while assets trending down seem to reduce overall draw downs https://t.co/N6vWT2XjQG

[Chuck Sugnet @chuckcode]

@SowingAlphaSeed Sounds like good diversification in a high valuations market. Unfortunately $QDSIX isn’t as tax efficient. Would definitely look at $AQMIX or $QMHIX for as well. I know you’re skeptical of MF traditional trend following, but I think AQR is doing more than that.

[Chuck Sugnet @chuckcode]

@SowingAlphaSeed AQR had a bad spell from 2018-2020 when their quant algos didn't perform. Last 5 years pretty consistent though. Amazing how liquid alts get solid returns with almost zero Beta or R2 and controlled vol. Don't mesh with mantra of low cost index and chill though

[Chuck Sugnet @chuckcode]

@SowingAlphaSeed Thanks. I haven't figured out how identify quality managers yet, large quality screen could really help. With current skills I've been focused on basic approach of core portfolio with cheapish equity beta and uncorrelated alts with leverage to desired volatility

[Chuck Sugnet @chuckcode]

@dampedspring Portfolio needs vary. I was surprised with level of DBMF equity correlation over past few years. QMHNX from AQR is not an ETF nor low expense, but good for me with relatively high sharpe combined with low equity beta and low taxable distributions https://t.co/XDPpuJGV7Q

[Chuck Sugnet @chuckcode]

@HML_Compounder Any software or services you recommend to track aggregated performance? Been disappointed how poorly Schwab does accounting for distributions being reinvested

[Chuck Sugnet @chuckcode]

@OptimizedPort Nice comparison to RPAR, would be curious to see how similar portfolio backtests too. Little surprised to see such large bond allocation given Dalio’s worry’s about govt debt and inflation

[Chuck Sugnet @chuckcode]

@OptimizedPort @Investinc_Intel Where do portable alpha strategies like RSST or QCFNX land in the 4 phases?

[Chuck Sugnet @chuckcode]

@SowingAlphaSeed Sharpe and Sortino look low compared to https://t.co/u2vaKtu59t ? Do you have details about how you're calculating? https://t.co/3qESAI1ggX

[Chuck Sugnet @chuckcode]

@OptimizedPort Thanks! Do you have any thoughts on how RSSB or other return stacking ETFs change tax impact? Do the use of futures/derivatives have tax implications like additional distributions or classification of distributions?

[Chuck Sugnet @chuckcode]

@iblanco_finance Meb Faber reported similar reduction in volatility, MaxDD going back to 1901 with 200 day MA in his paper "Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation". Would probably have to do in a tax advantaged account. https://t.co/HbD6BVV98W

[meg.ai 🇨🇦 @MeganRisdal]

@kaggle Read our blog "Evaluating LLMs by Finding Werewolves" https://t.co/5OrcowIPD5

[Demis Hassabis @demishassabis]

The AI field is in need of harder benchmarks to test capabilities of the latest AI models. This update to @Kaggle Game Arena with werewolf and poker (heads-up) plus chess, gives us new objective measures of real-world skills like planning and decision making under uncertainty.