claussy

product / growth @centaur_io

[claussy @clausikami]

great story from @frank_liquid on an agentic trading panel in singapore. his team at @liquidtrading tested how well an llm could predict the world cup. it called the first 14 games right and they thought they had found a forecasting model, then the underdogs started winning and it turned out the model had been picking the favourite every single time

the favourite is the consensus. most of what the model read said the stronger team would win, and almost nothing recorded when that was wrong. trading content has the same problem, so agents trained on it pile into the same assets and the same technicals as everyone else. the edge comes from data the crowd is not looking at

[claussy @clausikami]

most bullish takeaway from token2049: eyewear for cats

[Tony Cotzias @tonycotzias]

Agents can now turn your take into a portfolio. @Supertake launched out of USV, and @CatalystLabsX raised $30m from Sequoia.

We ran the top takes on Supertake’s leaderboard through the test: how much of each portfolio is actually the take? https://t.co/erhmD2j8EK

[Tony Cotzias @tonycotzias]

3 of the top 5 crypto venues by revenue are built around trade discovery / social features, per @DefiLlama

@Pumpfun @gmgnai @fomo made over $120m in September alone

thesis is clear

[Centaur @centaur_io]

The best traders on X and Telegram, tracked like wallets.

Every trade as they post it, their track records, and where they're positioned on every asset they trade, delivered as structured trading data.

Plug it into your app, agent, exchange, trading bot, terminal or wallet via API or MCP.

[claussy @clausikami]

@SurfAIHQ Meee 🏄🏻‍♀️

[claussy @clausikami]

@OnchainAditi agents, exchanges, partners

[claussy @clausikami]

could not agree more. i wrote a whole article on this, while researching i came across a study published earlier this year that backs this idea up too in case interesting - https://t.co/U8WEXofvlj

they tracked 1,000+ finfluencer picks and found they beat the market by about 1.2% for the first 30d, then trailed it by 7-13% after three years. that is why anyone following social trading signals should be looking at the trader's public track record first

[claussy @clausikami]

best traders of japanese small cap industrials on X? asking for a friend

[Tony Cotzias @tonycotzias]

think the proper perspective is that follower count is only a factor

our thesis is, and the data validates to date, that relatively smaller accounts operating in market niches, consistently share high-alpha signals

we are building @centaur_io entirely in this direction

[claussy @clausikami]

@ShortTheShort and shinji for jap !!

[claussy @clausikami]

@ShortTheShort + imperial treasure paragon for the best peking duck in sg

[claussy @clausikami]

before taking a trade you do your due diligence. the same logic applies when trading from your X timeline and there is no better DD tool for that than @centaur_io

[Tony Cotzias @tonycotzias]

.@X has now turned itself into a trading interface

which is validation for our thesis that accurate and backtested trading signals shared on X have tremendous value

our job @centaur_io is to power these analytics like none other

[claussy @clausikami]

@DefiLlama interesting to see that 3 of the top 5 have social trading, and 6 of these 10 have some kind of social layer built in. traders want to see what other traders are doing

[claussy @clausikami]

@uttam_singhk sent you a DM

[claussy @clausikami]

@edoweb3 will be there

[claussy @clausikami]

solid trader, what made you want to track him specifically? he's one of the traders we track at @centaur_io as well. have all his trades from X there along with deeper perf analytics available for free via our api/mcp + hundreds of other big traders if you wanted to plug other names into your agent

[claussy @clausikami]

@Itachidata very cool thank you for sharing this - how are you sourcing the sentiment piece?

[claussy @clausikami]

we do a version of this at @centaur_io with public traders instead of funds based on trades shared on X and TG. ran it on lighter this morning against your 15 sep question in case interesting

- @TraderMercury (structurally bullish, de-risked) – sees the august daily structure break and higher-timeframe trend reclaim as the defining event, with only one resistance between there and new highs. took most of the position off at the 4.236 fib extension around $5.14 to free capital for rotations elsewhere, and treats any return to the original august inflection level as the place to rebuild. bullish on the trend, unwilling to hold full size into extension.

- @Evan_ss6 (long-term holder, short-term skeptic) – views ethereum:0x232ce3bd40fcd6f80f3d55a522d03f25df784ee2 as a multi-year investment and considers trading it around a mistake. has been spot long since $2.34. took a tactical perp long on clarity act headlines but exited within hours after concluding the odds of passage were weaker than the market was pricing. his take is that the fundamental case is fine, but the regulatory catalyst is less certain than the sunday tape implied.

- @blknoiz06 (bullish on narrative and regime) – frames ethereum:0x232ce3bd40fcd6f80f3d55a522d03f25df784ee2 as one of a handful of midcap perp setups that only appear every few years, alongside hyperliquid:native and zcash:native. considers robinhood's early listing behaviour a strong signal of how committed they are to the ecosystem. treats this as a momentum regime trade rather than a valuation call

- @MoonOverlord (bullish on fundamentals) – argues the market underprices the robinhood relationship and that lighter is a plausible top-two Ethereum L2 by activity, which on its own would justify a multi-billion valuation

- @zeroxkyle (relative value) - thinks the $HOOD equity rally on robinhood chain news overstated a modest top-line uplift, and that ethereum:0x232ce3bd40fcd6f80f3d55a522d03f25df784ee2 is the cleaner expression of the same theme

- @TaikiMaeda2 (bullish, catalyst driven) - contrarian Q3 accumulation view: buy quality now to front-run the crowd waiting for a Q4 bottom. re-entered after meeting lighter's founder

- @awawat (bullish on product) - sees lighter as the mature end state of a lot of current DeFi experimentation, with the consistent strength confirming it

- @astekz (was bearish, capitulated) - shorted near 4.18 on a valuation and tape read, cut half within a day, flipped long into the sunday session and then went flat on all perps by monday. the short thesis did not survive contact with the flow.

- @ValkyrieFinance (bullish, macro-hedged) - repeatedly identifies ethereum:0x232ce3bd40fcd6f80f3d55a522d03f25df784ee2 as one of the fastest horses in the group but refuses to carry net long exposure through FOMC and other binary events. 5 entries and exits in eight days, net flat. bullish on the asset, bearish on holding anything through a scheduled catalyst.

- @Cheshire_Cap (long, cautious) - holding ethereum:0x232ce3bd40fcd6f80f3d55a522d03f25df784ee2 alongside zcash:native and hyperliquid:native, but thinks the SEC exemption news may mark a local top for all three. a holder who expects a pullback and has not acted on it yet

- @Wild_Randomness (structural holder) - believes the token should be staked rather than traded, positioning it as a yield-bearing exchange asset

[claussy @clausikami]

can you imagine a world where not all trade tracking happens onchain?

i can

watching an add to a $HOOD long right now and there isn't a wallet in sight

luv seeing the world in technicolor 🌈

[claussy @clausikami]

social skills in trading apis are very good at telling you which assets are being amplified on X right now. what the best kols are actually trading is a different dataset.

@Surfdeveloper has the deepest social stack in an trading agent i have used to date. i asked it who the best social accounts to track are and what they are trading.

it gave me a role-split watchlist with protocol voice, macro regime, bitcoin:native bias, meme beta, a fraud filter. every row carried a copy-trade column and every row said no, do not copy, or high risk.

it said plainly that named kol wallets are not streamed as a live portfolio and that is where most social skills currently stop. amplification is measurable, but positions take extraction work that most stacks have not done.

so i plugged the centaur api into surf studio to see how the two layers work together: https://t.co/wjUWsIImJ7

if you are building an agent, attention is the easy thing to measure. trades, ideas and positioning from vetted sources are where the edge is.