Clay Seigle

Nonresident scholar in energy security at CSIS

[Clay Seigle @ClaySeigle]

We also previewed in our Feb 18 “If Trump Strikes Iran: Mapping the Oil Disruption Scenarios.” https://t.co/NpB0iubE6D

[Graham Allison @GrahamTAllison]

10/ Academic analysts offered similar warnings, for example, Caitlin Talmadge’s 2008 article in International Security @IntSecHarvard that describes a plausible scenario in which Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, choking global energy markets.

https://t.co/W6631NqmOX

[Clay Seigle @ClaySeigle]

@gbrew24 To make up what loss? Until very recently, Iran has reportedly been exporting at near pre-war volumes

[Clay Seigle @ClaySeigle]

Washington got the message that Lebanon had to be included in the CF. Tehran got the message from Trump’s blockade that a concession was needed to extend the diplomatic negotiation track.

[Clay Seigle @ClaySeigle]

Iran has announced that Hormuz is open to all traffic during the remainder of the cease fire, which is set to end Monday. I expect limited movements until then, relieving pressure within the Gulf but no reversion to pre war operations until CF is extended or war ended

[Clay Seigle @ClaySeigle]

Futures prices will plunge; focus on physical price reaction as barometer for oil scarcity

[Clay Seigle @ClaySeigle]

@SStapczynski to the contrary, exactly now -- predictably and predicted.

[Clay Seigle @ClaySeigle]

#iran #trump #oil #blockade #hormuz #energy #economy @CSIS

[Clay Seigle @ClaySeigle]

President Trump's blockade announcement could be a helpful step toward ending the war and the energy supply disruption, if designed correctly. I outlined an approach last month: https://t.co/fd8V2wKZkz (1/x)

[Clay Seigle @ClaySeigle]

Iran shouldn't have a free pass to sell its oil while everyone else's remains paralyzed. Instead of seizing Kharg Island, I recommend seizing Iran's oil shipments with a blockade to even the playing field ahead of negotiations to end the crisis. https://t.co/kpFzgYsPvc

[Clay Seigle @ClaySeigle]

tl/dr: intercept Iranian oil only, far from the Strait, with no other restrictions on ship movements. Then go back to the negotiating table with both sides making compromises to end the war and restore Gulf exports (6/6)

[Clay Seigle @ClaySeigle]

Guys I’m unplugging for Seder so good luck with this one

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Guys, is Trump literally making his important Iran War address on April Fools’ Day?

[Clay Seigle @ClaySeigle]

Iran shouldn't have a free pass to sell its oil while everyone else's remains paralyzed. Instead of seizing Kharg Island, I recommend seizing Iran's oil shipments with a blockade to even the playing field ahead of negotiations to end the crisis. https://t.co/kpFzgYsPvc

[Clay Seigle @ClaySeigle]

Looking forward to joining CSPAN’s Washington Journal shortly to discuss the unfolding Mideast energy disruption and the economic effects

[Clay Seigle @ClaySeigle]

Unless a cease fire is agreed in the coming days, we will witness the start of what history books will eventually call The Battle of the Strait of Hormuz

[Clay Seigle @ClaySeigle]

Europe, Asia, and developing markets will all face different challenges by product category. Need detailed projections to determine the cost/benefit, because in any case the remaining cushion is finite and only buys X more days of 20 mb/d cutoff (2/2)

[Clay Seigle @ClaySeigle]

My view: this question shouldn't be answered yes/no with top-down approach, i.e. in principle, this is what they're designed for. Let's do the oil math and show exactly how specific regions would benefit, in which product markets, versus the 20 mb/d global disruption (1/2)

[Jason Bordoff @JasonBordoff]

Agree. If there was ever a poster child for the use of strategic stocks, it's now.

[Clay Seigle @ClaySeigle]

Do you have a driver's license? If you know someone will be trying to shoot at your car, will you drive or stay home? But wait - won't knowing that your insurer will be okay financially affect your decision? 😆 (2/2)

[Clay Seigle @ClaySeigle]

Backstopping insurance claim payouts is one way to assuage insurers' concerns. But this does nothing for the insured, who need to avoid calamity regardless of payout potential (1/2)