Conhead Capital

just happy to be here

[Conhead Capital @conheadcapital]

@PochardCapital Basically a smaller version of Haaland

[Conhead Capital @conheadcapital]

@DadInvest Power laws everywhere!

[Conhead Capital @conheadcapital]

Imagine Steve Jobs coming out on stage and saying that they’ve built a “blackberry-class” phone

[Michael Truell @mntruell]

Excited to release Grok 4.5 with @SpaceXAI.

It's an Opus-class model that's fast and low cost. It's a significant step up over any model we've developed so far, including Composer 2.5, and has become the daily driver for many on our team.

First of many releases. More soon.

[Conhead Capital @conheadcapital]

@WaterworldCapi1 @DadInvest Probably masters/augusta?

[Conhead Capital @conheadcapital]

@WaterworldCapi1 $HRB - printing tons of cash, major bear case (US direct file) got shut down by current administration, AI for tax prep is a weak use case generally (and more likely to cannibalize $INTU first given its customer base is more tech-forward).

[Conhead Capital @conheadcapital]

NJ government learns about supply & demand for $98 train tickets. I’m sure running these trains mostly-empty will totally save their tax payers a bunch of money

[Conhead Capital @conheadcapital]

Superintelligence. SpaceX IPO. World Cup. Knicks in NBA finals. What a time to be alive!

[Conhead Capital @conheadcapital]

@ebitdaddy90 @pmje73 He’s saying that you’re more likely to act (sunk cost bias) if you’ve done work cause you originally liked an idea and less likely to do work if you’ve done originally didn’t like an idea. New info should inform you equally both ways (positive/negative) but skews to confirm bias

[Conhead Capital @conheadcapital]

@CapitalObserver https://t.co/JPPd3kCeII

[Conhead Capital @conheadcapital]

@dalibali2 @Daeron0x yeah 100% - this race is not over!

[Conhead Capital @conheadcapital]

@dalibali2 @Daeron0x Anthropic would need a fundamentally different model to do that and they want to keep pushing on code. Gemini took the path of being multimodal from the start (which is harder) and they’re behind on code.

Two different approaches, you’re asking why a sports car can’t tow a boat

[Conhead Capital @conheadcapital]

@BluthCapital Soccer already has a solution for this. Technical foul for any player that’s deemed to intentionally “flop” at the ref’s discretion

[Conhead Capital @conheadcapital]

I think we’re still pretty early in this acceleration story.

Dashboards —> agents driving revenue acceleration today (doubly bullish if the agent driving usage is CoCo)

[Conhead Capital @conheadcapital]

I think Snowflake revenue is going to absolutely blow out its revenue target. Rev growth is going to accelerate and I wouldn’t be surprised to see 50% y/y growth driven by agents running queries.

[Conhead Capital @conheadcapital]

What are the second order impacts of $KOSPI increasing by over 200% in 1 year?

Wealth effect feels like a pretty great tailwind for $CPNG which is currently sitting at all-time lows?

[Conhead Capital @conheadcapital]

@KlendathuCap @WaterworldCapi1 What are the sales?

[Conhead Capital @conheadcapital]

@ToddWenning @ErnestWongBWM Who is the “someone else” you are referring to? I think you’re looking for a “team” that doesn’t exist.

[Conhead Capital @conheadcapital]

@WaterworldCapi1 The counter to all of this is that agentic usage is still only a tiny fraction of the enterprise, not even the minority of the enterprise, much less majority of consumer

[Conhead Capital @conheadcapital]

@WaterworldCapi1 There’s another vector of token efficiency-lots of agentic systems build up intuition about the world by the equivalent of reading the entire 10k to answer what revenue was last year. More capable agentic systems will be able to read the glossary, the skip to page w/ financials

[Conhead Capital @conheadcapital]

Lots of FOMO driving the CFO-level decisions to give every engineer on the team unlimited access to Claude with little to prove its value other than “most lines of code now written by AI” or “GitHub PRs have skyrocketed”

[Conhead Capital @conheadcapital]

If there is one thing that’s been made abundantly clear by AI, it’s that companies of all size struggle to measure the ROI of individual engineers.