Cornerstone Value

Professional Investor | Value Bent | Special Sit Focus

[Cornerstone Value @cornerstone127]

@masayoshisson What a perfect acct name for this post

[Cornerstone Value @cornerstone127]

Most of current and planned compute is parked off the inference market, reserved for model training. This is because training costs exponentially more per capability step. What if ROIC on capability turns negative? Training compute would then be reallocated to inference. Not good

[Cornerstone Value @cornerstone127]

@arakharazian What does "Other" encompass here?

[Cornerstone Value @cornerstone127]

As Ive spent a tremendous amount of time in the space, I've come to appreciate this. There are many areas of risk and, in fact, I do believe the situations must end badly. The problem is in no way about the unit economic of selling tokens. Today we can see that is true.

[dnap @dnapway]

Gavin Baker says the Anthropic S-1 will break a lot of investors' brains

"The Anthropic S-1 is going to be really important. And it's going to break a lot of people's brains. There are a lot of macro and value investors who are very confidently making these prognostications about AI with the assumption that tokens are subsidized."

"Anthropic is generating cash. They're profitable. Open source tokens are profitable. OpenAI, if they're not generating cash, they will be imminently. SpaceX, same thing."

"These macro and value investors are ignorant. They're very smart, but they're ignorant of the facts. They're making an assumption that tokens are subsidized and this is all going to collapse in some circular financing bonfire."

"They're just wrong. The overwhelming majority of tokens are profitable for everyone in the chain. Everyone."

"It's saying I'm very bearish on the world economy because oil is at $500 a barrel. If oil was at $500 a barrel, that'd be a good reason to be bearish. It's just not. They're just wrong. The central fact is wrong."

[Cornerstone Value @cornerstone127]

@JonkooTrades I dont think luck is the main issue here

[Cornerstone Value @cornerstone127]

@JaredKubin Some many dumb mistakes here. ARR in July was $65bn. Thus, we can solve for July revenue of $5.4. Meta and MSFT scaled back in June. Distillation was reported at 5-7%. Ex-distill its $5.0. We can then re-based growth Jul -> Sept as 6% cagr at best.

[Christian Catalini @ccatalini]

Frontier labs argue distillation threatens R&D and US national security. Open-weights proponents counter that diffusion is essential to competition and innovation.

Both believe theirs is the only safe path.

Luckily, the economics is loyal to neither. https://t.co/jFnLjqz5DR

[Cornerstone Value @cornerstone127]

@OpenClawCentral @rdd147 By successful at investing you mean... he lost 100% of his investors public capital b/c of a completely lack of any risk control?

[Cornerstone Value @cornerstone127]

@yngki341336 @elonmusk Thanks claude

[Cornerstone Value @cornerstone127]

@soatto @JackFarley96 This is the most delusionally stupid thing I have ever read on this platform

[Cornerstone Value @cornerstone127]

@brendanmatth @heyfinlo @RJCcapital How do you know its profitable? Id love some insight into sources here

[Cornerstone Value @cornerstone127]

@elonmusk there's so much low quality AI garbage in my twitter feed these days. Influencers just pumping out useless prompt responses to get views. What we if had a no AI gen text filter? I think people would love this.

[Cornerstone Value @cornerstone127]

@GavinSBaker @TMTBreakout Do we have any tangible reason to believe they changed their reporting? People are saying that "maybe" they did, but I've seen no evidence that this is the case.

[Cornerstone Value @cornerstone127]

@MortadellaCap The only thing that matters is whether they adopted a new methodology or not. Did they? If so, can you provide a source?

[Cornerstone Value @cornerstone127]

This might be the dumbest thing I've seen all year lol

[Pete Koomen @koomen]

I just spoke with a founder who is buying several factories. The first thing he wants to do is rip out Salesforce, Oracle and SAP, for which they’re paying a combined $1m per month. If you have experience with this please DM!

[Cornerstone Value @cornerstone127]

@williamblack107 @Seanfrank They eat lots of time. Theres no doubt. But you quickly find it was mostly time you were wasting either working on stuff that wasnt actually moving the ball forward or just wasting time on other things. Net productivity loss has been pretty minimal for me and Im happier.

[Cornerstone Value @cornerstone127]

@brian_armstrong @brian_armstrong are the colored sections on the bar chart cost per model? Curious which model or models you're spending most on at this point?

[Cornerstone Value @cornerstone127]

@Seanfrank Its been a few months... follow up on how AXON has performed??

[Cornerstone Value @cornerstone127]

@kuppyskorner The whole thing ahout investing is valuing the business on cash flow... If I can by 10s of billions of investment for a few billion and expect to harvest many billions of $ of cash per year in short order... thats a good investment.

[Cornerstone Value @cornerstone127]

@kuppyskorner Enjoy your work, but this is full of holes. Take the Uber example. Your premise is buy and hold from inception. Alternatively, you could have picked your spot based on valuation which would have led you to buy in 2022 at a fraction of replacement cost and dirt cheap fwd multiples