Chris Traynor

I like the beach, and learning about anything

[VedaPartners @VedaPartners1]

The AI and data center debate is front and center headed into the midterms. @HenriettaVeda is looking ahead and broke down how Washington may consider taxing it.
Great to be in studio with @FerroTV, @lisaabramowicz1 and @annmarie.
Want to learn more? [email protected]

[VedaPartners @VedaPartners1]

Great joining @Bloomberg's @tomkeene and @AlexisTVNews this morning to talk midterms. Henrietta discussed the President’s decision to primary several incumbents and the potential impact it could have in November. Full interview below.

[Henrietta Treyz @HenriettaVeda]

Early voting is underway! 10 ballots returned so far in North Carolina per the great @ElectProject - Gas is $4.15/gallon, diesel at record $5.85 and the Fed is on track to hike interest rates in September after a blow out jobs report but 65 months of over 2% inflation w lagging wage growth.

[Henrietta Treyz @HenriettaVeda]

US-Canada relations have been popular as far back as @Gallup polling goes, but MAGA voters have followed President Trump into opposing Canada, bringing down US support from 91% to 80% by dropping their support to 62% - materially offsetting the national average, as I discuss with @daniburgz and @FerroTV this am. Sure steel and aluminum imports are important, but just as critical for the @GOP and @realDonaldTrump right now is exciting the base to turn out and vote - and surprise surprise, they like when Trump is aggressive, regardless of who the target is - even Canada, polling shows they'll take on that opinion. Even if it means a blow to manufacturing jobs in Rust Belt states exposed to US-Canada trade. This political feedback loop is overriding the economic negatives of expanding tariffs and risks us tripping and falling out of the USMCA.
The market is pretty blase about the whole thing, assuming a TACO, but the political positives for Carney and Trump (with his base) are being underappreciated.

[Henrietta Treyz @HenriettaVeda]

“Sometimes US trade agreements are signed with a pencil.” This is the theme of my upcoming Capitol Signals piece for @agf and its popping up everywhere: with the IRGC, South Korea, and now our closest trading partner, Canada. Tune in to Bloomberg This Weekend at 9:20am et today - I’ll be discussing with @davidgura @LisaMateoTV and Christina Ruffini alongside @tomkeene

[St. Louis Fed @stlouisfed]

The federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour, and 20 states follow that rate. The other states have higher minimum wages: from West Virginia's $8.75 to Washington, D.C.'s $18.40. Visit the FRED Blog for more on the national picture https://t.co/FXfO0ODMvS

[St. Louis Fed @stlouisfed]

Since 1991, annual employment growth in the computer systems design industry has almost always outpaced overall U.S. employment growth. With two exceptions: The rollback in 2002-2003 (after the dot-com buildup and the 2001 recession), as well as in 2022.
Visit the FRED Blog to see happened in 2022 https://t.co/03uwKwDseU

[St. Louis Fed @stlouisfed]

On Aug. 21, the St. Louis Fed Economic News Index was projecting Q3 2026 real GDP growth of 1.9% at an annual rate. The “nowcast” draws from key monthly data releases to forecast GDP growth for the current quarter. Learn more: https://t.co/4HJblWJ2Sk

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

AI Is Now Costing the U.S. 16,000 Jobs a Month, Goldman Sachs Finds

Goldman Sachs Research estimates that AI has reduced U.S. payroll growth by roughly 16,000 jobs per month over the past year, while also raising the unemployment rate by about 0.1 percentage point. The figure is a net estimate: AI substitution eliminated roughly 25,000 jobs monthly, while AI-driven augmentation offset about 9,000 through increased demand for workers.

The impact is falling disproportionately on younger and entry-level workers, particularly in roles such as data entry, customer service, billing and administrative support. Goldman cautions that the current shock remains relatively narrow, with AI also creating jobs through productivity gains and the massive build-out of data centers and related infrastructure

[Bloomberg @business]

The Trump administration agreed to delay 50% tariffs on billions of dollars of Canadian products for three days following high-stakes negotiations in Washington https://t.co/aeIAZzWl8G

[Henrietta Treyz @HenriettaVeda]

The AI risk in place this election cycle is actually two-fold: 1) Dem leadership has a directive out to prioritize "affordability" - a campaign message that has been working nationwide in polling and special elections since November 2025 - that dam releases November 4th; and 2) with more than 60 new, often younger lawmakers in office nationwide, almost all of whom have an AI platform waiting, this will be a more natural dialogue in the halls of Congress (compared to today) to drive the regulatory discussion.
@Mattg2235 and @thenorahtorious provide a great preview of what's to come today for @business - thanks for including me
https://t.co/TTaDQdoZHA

[Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall]

The US Secretary of Energy says Strait of Hormuz oil exports are 8-9MM Bbl/d (vs. ~15MM Bbl/d pre-war) while Kpler says the 7-day average is 1.8 ships leaving the Strait (vs. ~56 pre-war). I know which one I'm going with!

[Political Polls @PpollingNumbers]

New - US July budget deficit

🔵 2024: $244 billion
🔴 2025: $291 billion
🔴 2026: $432 billion

Up 77% in two years.

[Henrietta Treyz @HenriettaVeda]

All eyes on Michigan & fallout from the President's trade wars. Since Trump took office originally, the state has gone from having the 22nd highest unemployment rate in the nation to having the 44th highest unemployment rate. Why? Tariffs. To answer Richard's excellent question on the show this morning: tariffs absolutely do matter.
Thanks so much to @tomkeene and @ptsweeney for having me on @BloombergLive this morning. Always a pleasure gents.

[Chris Traynor @ctray1219]

@stlouisfed Is this swiftie inflation?

[Chris Traynor @ctray1219]

@united I had my flight cancelled twice and want a refund for the return trip but I’m not getting anywhere with customer service…

[Chris Traynor @ctray1219]

Hey it’s me

[KOTA @KotaTheFriend]

Wait till yall hear the album.. just wait..

[Chris Traynor @ctray1219]

I’m late to Twitter, but what else am I supposed to do during a pandemic? Learn a skill?