David Bailey

[David Bailey @dab265]

@MichaelPBento @saltydocEM also want to suggest reading @A_May_MD posts on $MRNA for a solid counterpoint to the euphoria.

[David Bailey @dab265]

@MichaelPBento @saltydocEM Phase 3 trials in non-small cell lung cancer are already running, with bladder and kidney behind them.

https://t.co/5iGHf6UhvX

[Afshine Emrani MD FACC @afshineemrani]

Moderna's cancer "vaccine" made history this week, and most people misunderstand what it actually is. Three things to know, from a physician.

It doesn't prevent cancer. It treats it!!!

The word "vaccine" is misleading here. This isn't a shot that stops you from getting melanoma — it's given after the tumor is surgically removed, to clear the microscopic cancer cells left behind and stop them from returning or spreading. Here's how it's built: doctors sequence the DNA of your specific tumor, compare it to your healthy cells, and identify the mutations unique to your cancer. Machine learning ranks roughly 34 of those mutations as the best targets. Those get encoded into mRNA, which instructs your cells to display those markers so your immune system's T cells learn to recognize and attack any cell carrying them. Same mRNA platform as the COVID shots — completely different job. And it predates both COVID and the AI boom: Merck and Moderna began this program in 2016 and were dosing patients in 2017.

It only works combined with Keytruda — and that combination just passed Phase 3.

The vaccine is never used alone. Every patient also receives Keytruda, currently the highest-revenue drug in the world. The two do different jobs: the vaccine teaches the immune system which mutations to target, and Keytruda blocks the "off switch" tumors use to evade immune attack, so the T cells can actually do their work. In the Phase 3 trial of 1,137 high-risk melanoma patients, the combination significantly reduced both recurrence and spread to distant organs versus Keytruda alone — the first Phase 3 win for any mRNA cancer therapy. Earlier-stage data had shown about a 49% reduction in recurrence or death.

Melanoma is a proof of concept for the whole platform.

The reason this matters beyond skin cancer: the method is repeatable. The same personalized process — sequence the tumor, pick the mutations, build the mRNA — can in principle be applied to other cancers. Phase 3 trials in non-small cell lung cancer are already running, with bladder and kidney behind them. And Moderna isn't the only one: BioNTech is developing nearly identical individualized mRNA therapies. Melanoma success is a strong signal for the approach, not a guarantee it works everywhere — but it's the clearest proof to date that the platform works at all.

The prior major advance in cancer treatment was immunotherapy — checkpoint inhibitors like Keytruda, which help the immune system recognize tumors it was ignoring. This is the next step: not just helping the immune system see the cancer, but training it against the specific mutations in one patient's tumor.

Twenty-four hours ago, whether this approach could work in a large trial was an open question. As of this week, the data says it does.

[David Bailey @dab265]

@Biotech2k1 2/2 through high-speed networking chips and custom AI accelerator silicon (XPUs) built for major cloud operators. [1, 2, 3, 4]

[David Bailey @dab265]

@Biotech2k1 maybe not a key bottleneck but I've seen good arguments that $AVGO is a critical component. From Google: "Yes, it is entirely accurate to call Broadcom Inc. one of the most important AI infrastructure companies. It powers the backbone of the generative AI boom".

[medoyid_ua @LetsArmUKR]

Moldova’s president just spelled out the brutal logic that the rest of Europe keeps ignoring. Maia Sandu put it plainly. If Ukraine cannot export its grain, it cannot fund its defense. No sales means no money. No money means no resistance. Once that resistance collapses, the full Russian problem lands on Moldova’s doorstep and every neighbor’s.

She admits the domestic agricultural lobby will suffer from Ukrainian transit. Even so, she refuses to turn away. Ukrainians are bombed every night and still plant every morning. Their stubborn fight is buying Chisinau peace right now. This is straight sentimentality. simply seeing Ukraine as Europe’s forward security provider while most NATO capitals still treat it like a charity case.

The 50 percent railway discount struck between Kyiv and Chisinau is the bare minimum. It should be standard across the entire eastern flank. Every ton that rolls through Moldova or Romania weakens Moscow's hold on global food prices and reduces the money available for its drone and missile attacks on civilian ports. Odessa is already bleeding tonnage. Russian strikes on grain infrastructure are halving projected exports this season. Alternative Danube routes are choked by drought. The math is merciless.

Sandu understands what the professional appeasers in Berlin and Washington still dodge. Ukraine’s battlefield endurance isn’t for show. It is hard power that protects their borders at a discount. Ukrainian grain and Ukrainian blood are not separate line items. They are the same invoice, and Europe is the beneficiary. Pay it properly now or pay later at full market rate in ruined cities and mass refugee flows.

The choice was never between helping Ukraine or helping yourselves. It is whether you help while the line still holds or beg us to hold it after your own capitals come into range. Sandu chose reality. The rest of the continent needs to catch up.

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

THIS HAS TO BE THE STORY OF 2026

Ken Griffin’s Citadel was pushing surprise-rate-hike fears just days before the AI trade collapsed and forced 4x-levered Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness to unload its book near the lows.

Citadel then reportedly bought most of those assets at significantly lower prices knowing that if sentiment deteriorated enough the fund could be forced to sell which makes the entire sequence look absolutely ruthless.

This is why the stock market is the greatest game on Earth.

[David Bailey @dab265]

@RealSimpleAriel I got similar errors with my 5 yr old Dell, it was related to SSD drive "disc" drive

[David Bailey @dab265]

@TradingWarz LEAPS

[David Bailey @dab265]

@blondebroker1 Jiu-Jitsu, would like my daughter to take this up. Good workout plus self defense benefit.

[David Bailey @dab265]

@cwebbonline So, this is Biden's Algae.

[Election Truth Alliance @ETA_Org]

How do you explain a +356% change in vote totals between Massie's challengers in 2024 versus 2026? We dove deep into the data to try!

Read our preliminary analysis, now available on our Substack: https://t.co/DzB7KRkCu7

[Adam May @A_May_MD]

It has been a while since I shared a full-blown diligence write up document here. I try to save them for really compelling situations...without a doubt, the current $ABVX situation definitely deserves one, so here we go!

I won't give a full blown thread here on X to outline it. You'll have to click on the Google Doc link here and in the first comment to read the deeper details, but I will give just a few very key points that I think people must know about this (IMO false) "cancer signal" debacle that $ABVX finds itself in:

➡️The panic here was largely management's fault for the way they:
1⃣FALSELY called colonic dysplasia "colon cancer" thus falsely elevating the "cancer rate"
2⃣Foolishly lumped 4 cases of NMSC in with the "real" cancers, which the FDA specifically calls *non*NMSC for a reason (they are *NOT* "legitimate" cases of dangerous cases and they DO NOT lead to black box warnings!!!)
3⃣Were not prepared to explain the cancer cases because they (correctly but naively) didn't think they would need explaining!
↪️This further led to the perception that management was actually unwilling (and not just unable) to answer questions about "cancer signals", spurring panic that management was hiding something, thus driving further panic selling during the crash.

➡️People do not realize that you CANNOT reasonably/usefully compare treatment arm cancer rates to the placebo arm rate...the study is NOT AT ALL powered to detect differences in such rare events, and what we saw in the 50mg arm is textbook statistical noise.
↪️On top of that, nobody seems to have realized that the adverse event capture in the placebo arm is actually MUCH LOWER than the adverse event capture in the drug arms, DESPITE matching sample sizes. Exactly how and why is explained in the doc, but suffice it to: We absolutely SHOULD expect higher cancer rates to appear in the drug arms than the placebo arm (Hint: The reason why has to do with attrition).

➡️THE BIGGEST POINTS:
↪️The observed nNMSC ("cancer") rate in the 50mg Obe arm is in line with expectations for UC patients at baseline!!! (~0.59 cases/100PY versus 0.5/100PY). This fact ALONE refutes the idea that Obefazimod would get a black box cancer warning, but people failed to calculate this rate correctly because they:
(1) Falsely included colonic dysplasia and NMSC cases in the calculation!
(2) Falsely excluded (forgot about) the GIANT phase 2 safety database than dramatically lowers the 50mg cancer rate!!!
↪️The 50mg Obe arm also has the same rate as another UC drug that has NO CANCER WARNING ON THE LABEL WHATSEOVER (not just no black box, no mention of cancer risk on the label whatsoever) - Obe with ~0.59, Omvoh with 0.60. Obe should get the same squeaky clean label as this drug with the same cancer rate (which, again, is roughly the expected background rate!!!
↪️Bears might point to Rinvoq that also had a 0.60/100PY cancer rate...the same as Omvoh with a clean label, yet Rinvoq has a full blown black box...what gives?
➡️Rinvoq got its black box warning as JAK inhibitor *CLASS EFFECT WARNING*, which actually derived from much higher cancer rates that were seen with a DIFFERENT JAK inhibitor (Xeljanz) in a DIFFERENT DISEASE (rheumatoid arthritis).
↪️If Rinvoq only had its 0.6 cancer rate in UC in a vacuum, it would have the same squeaky clean cancer label that Omvoh has, and that Obefazimod is on its way to having!

➡️These data above VERY CLEARLY demonstrate that the EXISTING data that we ALREADY HAVE for $ABVX show that obefazimod is headed for a clean label...that is to say, we can actually already, objectively refute the idea that there is an nNMSC signal that will give Obfazimod a black box warning! Of course, the stock price does NOT reflect that fact at $101 right now, because the market has confused/missed a lot of facts and a lot of data.
↪️Management could have been prepared to fully explain that this "signal" isn't real and prevented the stock price crash that we are currently enduring at $101. In fact, the stock would likely have sniffed $200/share on the back of the unbelievably strong efficacy data they provided that blew away all expectations and hopes. However, management was (IMO correctly) so certain that no cancer signal exists that they (IMO naively) did not prepare to explain to people why that is the case. So now we are left to sort through the wreckage...ultimately this may prove to have been an opportunity.

➡️Investors now appear to be waiting for the June update where we will not only get more details on the existing cases and likely context from management showing that these existing cases are already occurring at the EXPECTED baseline rates for UC patients, but we will also get NEW data from the very large "part 2" sample of the P3 study.

➡️Although you can already (IMO) objectively disprove the idea that Obefazimod is headed for a black box warning with the EXISTING data (as I think I can convincingly lay out in the larger document) the market may wait for the part 2 data to come out to before giving $ABVX the credit that it deserves to shoot back to those $175+ prices that it briefly saw after the maintenance data were released

➡️We should take note that MORE CANCER CASES ARE A NEAR STATISTICAL CERTAINTY IN THE UPCOMING PART 2 UPDATE. This is actually an even larger on-drug sample size than what we have already. In all, ~3 cases of "true" non-nonmelanoma skin cancer should be expected to occur in this cohort of patients just based on the background rate of cancers we see in UC patients at baseline. If the rate comes in at that level or lower, then the case is even more tightly sealed than it already was by the first round of data, and there will be little to no merit left in the argument that Obefazimod could get a black box warning....

❓What does this mean for $ABVX's valuation? I think that if people catch on to the appropriate analysis of the existing data that we already having showing that Obfazimod's EXISTING cancer rate is:
↪️In line with the baseline rate of cancers in UC patients
↪️In line with UC drugs like Omvoh that have ZERO cancer risk on their label
....then the stock could return to the $130-$150 range even before we get the updated dataset.

➡️It cannot be overstated how unbelievably positive the maintenance efficacy data were, especially with the endoscopic remission rate DOUBLING the placebo adjusted delta of the previously unchallenged Rinvoq (comparing high dose to high dose)...these efficacy results were truly unprecedent, and again, would likely have gotten the stock to nearly $200/share without the (IMO false) safety baggage clinging on.
↪️Given how convincingly we can already refute this cancer safety risk claim with the existing data that we already have, getting the stock back to the ~$150 range BEFORE the June update does not seem like that tall of a task to me, though we will see if the market is able to psychologically get over that brief crash!

➡️The document goes over all these points in far greater detail, in my BIASED opinion (yes I am long the stock!) making a pretty convincing case that we can already tell that the cancer signal Is. Not. Real.

And that Obefazimod will get a perfectly clean safety label!
↪️I also discuss how I think this impacts the current and future valuation of the company and my thoughts around potential M&A (IMO the highest they've ever been over the next 6 months)

That's enough for here - check out the document below!
https://t.co/P3fmfMlkaE

[David Bailey @dab265]

@stockdatamarket @market_sleuth thanks for sharing this explanation from @stockdatamarket. John, does this info/explanation for todays cliff dive change your strategy you mentioned for next week? thanks

[David Bailey @dab265]

@OptimusDelta thank you for sharing your research. Sadly, I ALMOST purchased shares yesterday.🙁

[David Bailey @dab265]

@Gantosj Joe, would you mind sharing your latest thoughts on $CRICF? Are they dependent on investment from the Canadian government to develop their holdings? thanks

[David Bailey @dab265]

@TheRonnieVShow Hi Ronnie, I got an email from X that my existing subscription is going from $10 to $19, is this correct? I thought the $10 price for existing subscribers would not change.

[JER @lifeofjer]

https://t.co/ofucbVgkLV

[Gary Marcus @GaryMarcus]

Total AI disaster, totally predictable

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

All the hyperscalers $SIVE likely ends up in 2027-2028 is staggering at a $900m MC.

Markets don't understand what's coming.

From speculative mapping:

> $SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL ->
1. $AMZN (purchase agreement/warrants with photonic fabric from celestial)
2. $MSFT (maia)
3. $GOOGL (recent development talks with Marvell)

$SIVE powers Poet Starlight/optical interposers, and Poet's CFO confirmed they're supplying to Marvell few days ago.

> $SIVE -> $POET -> "NDAs other hyperscaler suppliers"
1. Western Hyperscalers

> $SIVE -> $JBL (1.6T LRO)->
1. $META (Jabil $INTC SiPH inheritance, maps to Meta LRO program)
2. $NVDA (NVIDIA possibly OEMs optical transceivers) -> $MSFT | AWS | hyperscalers

$SIVE is the confirmed laser source for $JBL 1.6T optical transceivers.

> $SIVE -> Ayar ($500m fundraiser last month for volume ramp) ->
1. Alchip (Joint CPO)
2. Intel
3. GUC/Wiwynn
-> $AMZN (Alchip)
-> $AMD (CPO from $GFS partnership) possible.

$SIVE is known laser supplier to Ayar, and Ayar removed $MTSI / $LITE from their website recently. Only showing $GFS + $SIVE, likely showing Sivers was primary laser supplier.

As $GFS x $AMD partnered up recently, that makes Siver a possible core laser supplier for $AMD's CPO program if they go with Ayar.

> $SIVE -> Enablence -> O-Net (massive Asian OEM)-> Asian Hyperscalers
1. $AVGO ELS (possible)
2. $META and $GOOGL ELS
3. ByteDance (possible) -> ELS
4. Tencent (possible) -> ELS
5. Alibaba (possible) -> ELS

$SIVE ELS partnership with O-Net/Enablence around OFC.

Sivers lasers is mass produced by foundries like Win Semi... and they're validated in $GFS CPO supply chains too from their recent image presentations.

It's not about what Sivers is forecasting today from qualification revenue that everyone models off of.

Alpha comes from future revenue proportional to demand from every Western/Asian hyperscaler for CPO/1.6T in 2027, 2028, 2029, and onward.

$SIVE looks like one of the most unknown photonic stocks on the market that's yet to come.

[Mark Cuban @mcuban]

The greatest problem in healthcare ? Hospitals, even market dominant hospitals, won’t walk away from the big ins companies that underpay, late pay, clawback, deny claims, waste their time in denial appeals, and require them to pay up to 8 pct of revenue to RCM consultants so they think they are getting what they are owed.

Here is the crazy part. The ins companies ARE NOT THE ONES ACTUALLY PAYING THEM on commercial plans. Employers are.

60 pct of employees get their insurance from their self insured employers. The ins carrier is just a middleman that pretends to add value.

All the clinical “value” they add, the hospital could do better, for both medical and pharmacy.

Most hospitals have no idea whether they make or lose money with their big ins contracts. They are just afraid to lose patient flow.

But. They actually know which companies their patients are coming from. They actually know or can find out, how much more the employers are paying the ins company, than what the ins company pays them (the spread, just like in pharmacy )

And to make it worse, those ins companies negotiate their rates as a discount from the “charge master “, which is like WAC in pharmacy. Just a made up list price.

Because the hospitals are afraid or too uninformed to walk away from these deals, the hospitals use the inflated charge master prices as the basis to charge uninsured , or out of network , or insured but not covered for their care, at charge master rates. Which of course the patients can’t afford. And it crushes their finances or they go without care

I’ll summarize. Employers , and their members , are paying far more than they should to companies they don’t like working with , that effectively rip off both the employer and hospital , and they could eliminate the middlemen if they went directly to to the employer.

It’s so simple. Sell your services to the employers that use your services at a price that is less than what nine companies charge for your services and you will make MORE money and employers will save a ton

And if they did this, they could dump the chargemaster and reduce the price they bill patients when they are at their most vulnerable

But they don’t want to change. And don’t get me started on how much hospitals over pay for drugs and devices because of the GPO deals they do. It’s just stupid.

Which in turn leads to the hospital being a bad actor with 340b , facilities fees and afraid of their doctors who demand they pay more for things like glue and implants so they can get vacations.

If you are a politician and reading this. Now you know why this is so fucked up and it’s not about capping rates. The insurance companies are smarter than you. They will just move the money to other places. It’s not about giving money to patients. You can’t shop for care from hospitals that are too gutless to walk away from the ins companies that distort all of healthcare economics

Go to your local hospitals , particularly those at risk of closing and ask for their profitability by carrier. Fully burdened. Ask how much they spend on RCM and consultants. In many cases they could survive if they ran like a real business and hired execs that could do the work rather than just manage consultants. They could work out contracts in their communities rather than with ins companies and benefit everyone.

The middlemen are not needed. Get rid of them