Daniel Moss

Co-founder of @gopadder Obsessed with real estate, data, tech and the outdoors

[More Neighbours Toronto @MoreNeighbours]

Edmonton now permits at least 8 units and 3 storeys on every residential lot with 0 parking required. This should be the bare minimum for every Canadian city.

Ask your city councillor and staff: why can Edmonton do it, but we can't?

[Eric Lombardi (EricForOLP.ca) 🇨🇦🚀 @EricDLombardi]

And Canada!

[AlkarimDevani @DevaniAlkarim]

Missing middle housing is deeply tied to our aging population. Boomers own a significant portion of the existing housing that can unlock this potential. If they don’t feel included or supported, it will never scale. Need to find strategies that help with aging in community!

A single family corner lot becomes 8 units with 4 fully accessible at grade suites and townhomes on top. The Montreal stack!

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Canadian rents outpace income for the first time in 60 years, per BMO.

[Hanif Bayat @HanifBayat]

Canada Mortgage Renewal Stats:

1st 6 month
Nov 1, 2023 to Apr 30, 2024:
Avg. each month ∼1.07% of all 🇨🇦 mortgages will be renewed: ∼75k/mo.

2nd 6 month:
May 1 to Oct 31, 2024
Avg. each month ∼1.36% of all 🇨🇦 mortgages will be renewed: ∼95k/mo.

12-24 months from now:
Nov 1, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025:
Avg. each month ∼1.78% of all 🇨🇦 mortgages will be renewed: ∼125k/mo.

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

BREAKING: Wells Fargo suspends new HELOC loans

[Hanif Bayat @HanifBayat]

1/3
Scotiabank's Q4 report (Nov. 28, 2023):
High interest rates and economic challenges led to increased impaired loans, higher provision for credit losses, and a dip in the bank's net income.

[Jeremiah Shamess | Toronto Land & Building Sales @JShamess]

We need to allow more small lot development with zero lot lines in avenues and urban areas.

Many streets have a plethora of 30’ x 100’ site areas and < 5,000 SF lots.

This would open up significant amount of new housing possibilities.

This article @donnelly_b is a great breakdown of a project in Germany with a 3,735 SF site as an example.

But we need a changes on zoning and site plan requirements to allow for incremental cost to make financial sense.

[Hiten Samtani 🗞️ @hitsamty]

Proptech graveyard 🪦/infirmary 🤒: Running list

Veev
Type: Modular homebuilder 🏗️
Raised: $600M+ VC
Backers: Fifth Wall, JLL, Bond
Status: Shutting down (Nov. '23) after fundraising fell through

Latch
Type: Smart locks 🔏
Raised: $182M VC, $453M SPAC IPO
Backers: Tishman Speyer (SPAC sponsor), RXR, LeFrak, Camber Creek
Valuation at IPO: $1.5B
Status: Rocked by financial irregularities ⚠️, rebranded Sept. '23 as Door
Current market cap: $141M (↓92%)

Stoa
Type: iBuyer 🏡🏡
Raised: $300M
Backers: Oren Zeev
Status: Workforce slashed 80% (summer '23), figuring out options

Zeus Living
Type: Property Management 👩‍💼
Raised: $150M
Backers: Airbnb, Initialized, YC, GV
Status: Shut down fall '23

Doma
Type: Title insurance 📃
Raised: $600M, plus $645M SPAC IPO
Backers: Mark Ein (SPAC sponsor), Lennar, Fifth Wall, Bloomberg Beta
Valuation at IPO: $3B (early investors redeemed $300M)
Status: Mass layoffs, select asset sales to rival firm, heavy losses
Current market cap: $77M (↓98%)

Blend
Type: Digital mortgage 💸
Raised: $650M+, plus $360M in IPO
Backers: LeFrak, Founders Fund, Lennar, 8VC, Fifth Wall, Tiger, Coatue, Temasek
Valuation at IPO: $4B
Status: 4x layoffs, consistent massive losses
Current market cap: $323M (↓94%)

Hippo
Type: Insurtech 📃💻
Raised: $709M, plus $550M SPAC IPO
Backers: Reid Hoffman (SPAC sponsor), Lennar, Mitsui Sumitomo, Comcast, Fifth Wall, Oren Zeev
Valuation at IPO: $5B
Status: Heavy layoffs, freeze on new biz
Current market cap: $200M (↓97%)

PeerStreet
Type: Distressed-debt investment platform
Raised: $122M
Status: Filed for bankruptcy June '23

CrowdStreet:
Type: Crowdfunding platform
Raised: $25M
Status: Got Nightingale'd summer '23

Cadre
Type: Crowdfunding platform
Raised: $118M
Backers: Kushners, Thrive, Fascitelli, Goldman, Founders Fund, a16z
Status: In talks to sell to Yieldstreet at $100M valuation (from high of $800M)

* $ raised is both debt/equity (Sources: Pitchbook, news clips)
* Investor list not comprehensive- and many have cashed out
* Fundraising figures/valuations vary slightly depending on source
* Far from comprehensive list. Many smaller casualties (Squarefoot, etc) not flagged, plus many demises from '22 and earlier

Please flag other biggies I may have missed.

[Tablesalt 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @Tablesalt13]

People who paid down their mortgage when it was 1.9%

didnt save 1.9%

They saved the weighted average of all of their future interest rates.

Few understand this.

[Saad Baig @saadbaig3]

Letter from @SeanFraserMP to @MayorOliviaChow with list of requests in order to approve federal 💰:

- Increase min density near transit
- Increase land with 4 storey as-of-right
- Reduce angular plane requirements
- More multi-tenant near uni/colleges
+ more

Source: CBC

[Steve Saretsky @SteveSaretsky]

For the first time in 60 years, income growth is trailing rents and its not even close. Maybe a million immigrants a year is the wrong number? @BMO

[Ben Rabidoux @BenRabidoux]

You know the Canadian consumer is hurting when...

[Triple Net Investor @TripleNetInvest]

Troubling signs are emerging for multi-family/apartment assets in the US...

A recently built, 275 unit high rise apartment complex in the South Loop (Chicago) just sold for $59M

This is shocking given the previous owner took out a $69M construction loan to build the apartment complex in 2020

Here's a worrying snippet from Crain's:

"Longtime Chicago developer has taken a loss on a South Loop apartment tower, selling the Aspire Residences to a New Jersey landlord for less than the construction loan it used to build them.

The deal is evidence that strong rental demand in downtown Chicago may not be enough to offset the negative impact of high interest rates on pricing.

Nationally, multifamily sales were down by 64% year over year as of October..."

First it was office, now it's multi-family/apartments that's cracking with distress emerging across the US

It will be interesting to see how bad it gets but it's certainly a story to keep an eye on in 2024 as opportunities emerge

For the latest updates on the meltdown in US commercial real estate, make sure to follow @TripleNetInvest

[Joe Pompliano @JoePompliano]

Amazon is paying $100 million to broadcast the NFL's first-ever Black Friday game.

But it's really a chess move to steal market share from brick-and-mortar stores and generate online sales.

Let me explain 👇

Thanksgiving Day football has always been huge.

Last year's games averaged 33.5 million viewers, including 42 million viewers for the Cowboys vs. Giants — the most-watched regular season game of all time.

2022 Average Viewership
• NBA Christmas Day: 4.27 million
• NFL Thanksgiving Day: 33.5 million

But the NFL has never done a Black Friday game because 1) it's a holiday known for people leaving the house to go shopping and 2) the Sports Broadcasting Act of 1961 prohibits NFL games on Fridays after 6 pm ET and all day on Saturdays during the fall.

This rule was implemented by Congress to protect high school and college football from seeing a decline in attendance and viewership because of the NFL.

But Amazon offered the NFL $100 million for the game, so they decided to put it at 3 pm ET to skirt the rule.

And it's an even better deal for Amazon.

Amazon is allowing anyone to watch — Amazon's first TNF broadcast generated more Prime sign-ups than any other 3-hour window in company history — and Amazon is also reportedly charging 2x more than their TNF broadcast for 30-second ad placements.

Cost Of A 30-Second Commercial
• Thursday Night Football: $440,000
• Black Friday: $880,000

But more importantly, Amazon will leverage its new ad strategy called "audience-based creative."

This will enable brands to target different audience segments with different ads in the same time slot.

For example, according to Ad Age, Bose will show three different ads using Amazon's ad technology.

The first ad features Joe Burrow and will be delivered to non-Prime members, while the other two Bose ads will feature different products and be shown only to Prime members based on their Amazon Prime search history.

And here's the best part...

These targeted ads will also be shoppable, meaning viewers can watch the commercial, place the product in their cart with the click of a button, and checkout without ever leaving the broadcast.

That makes Amazon's broadcast far more valuable than a typical commercial — brands will be able to retarget these customers after the game — and it also gives us a view into how brand advertising could look in the future.

Companies like Amazon and Apple are only going to spend more money on live sports rights, and their ad targeting could change how brands market forever.

Now that's pretty damn cool.

** If you enjoyed this breakdown, follow me @JoePompliano for more sports business content **

[Ron Butler @ronmortgageguy]

WTF is "The Canada Mortgage Charter"? Mainly Nonsense

@cafreeland sang the praises of this Mortgage Charter yesterday

Like most of the announcements, it is just old news repackaged for added political theater

Let's break down what it is &amp; some of it is wildly contradictory

2/

[Kirk Lubimov @KirkLubimov]

Fall Economic Statement, 2023:

* $40B deficit projection for 2023-2024.
* net new spending of $13.2B over the next 6 years.
* subsidies for developers for expensive rentals but nothing for affordable housing until 2025-2026.
* Canadian Mortgage Charter, isn't really clear what new it offers or mandates.
* cracking on short term rentals like Airbnbs and tax changes on deductions from their revenue.
* nothing really to reduce grocery prices (but in favour of carbon taxes on farmers which will increase food costs).
* no forecast to return to balance for next 6 years.
* deficits will be higher each of the next 6 years than the Liberal's previous projections.
* downside projection see unemployment hitting 7%.
* public debt charges forecasted to hit $60.7B in 2028-2029.

Chrystia Freeland: "Our responsible fiscal plan" 🥴

[Daniel Foch @danielfoch]

Set a reminder for my upcoming Space! With @danlmoss

https://t.co/dAjG4eYV3Q

[Akshay @akshay_sol]

Mortgage cost (30.5%) is the top in Main contributors to the 12-month CPI change from Oct22- Oct23🇨🇦