@markusdd5 Elon also said that Tesla would sell 250k cybertrucks annually. He also said that he aims for above 50% accuracy with his predictions. I think the biggest issue with Terafab is where does the money come from.
JPow is correct, the economy is fine. Currently at target and stable. Tariffs introduce risk but currently unclear if they count as a shock large enough to offset a 7% deficit and flexible financial conditions (rates, exchange rates, and oil).
@rev_cap@rev_cap trump's goal is to bring manufacturing back to the US. The problem is that USMCA allows it to go to Mexico and import into the US for free. We saw China build plants in Mexico. Trump is trying to force plants to be built in the US, by crushing USMCA.
@AahanPrometheus Yeah I think of it like: the quantity and cost of money affect decision-making. Some decisions are fast acting and some are slow, with the bulk somewhere in the middle, like a normal distribution. I suspect this is because there's a normal distribution in how soon people get info
@rev_cap@BobEUnlimited@dampedspring I tend to agree with you. From a first principles view, a roaring economy should have a higher price for money, since there are lots of good investment opportunities. I just wanted to make the point that Andy's fear-mongering piece is unsupported.
@MacroAlf@MacroAlf what evidence is there that growth matters for bonds? Is it just that high growth take investor demand away from bonds to stocks instead?