slendie

I like politics and trading prediction markets. Tech guy, pragmatic lib, New Yorker

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

I think about this a lot

[Nick Smith @NSmithReports]

Abdul El-Sayed campaign finance report for 7/16-9/30 is on FEC website

Total receipts: $30.7M
Spent: $29.4M
Cash on hand: $3.79M

Unless someone can correct me, I believe that may be a new high for any Michigan U.S. Senate candidate in a single quarter, ever.

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

@GorillaHpn Yeah their bromance is funny. I’m sure the rest of Fox isn’t thrilled about it lol

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

@MWpatriot01 It doesn’t mean anything period. Grow up

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

Watching Con ET put all their hopes and dreams into *completely meaningless* early vote voodoo is fun to watch man I gotta say

[Midwestern Patriot 🇺🇸 @MWpatriot01]

What’s going on in Madison? Last couple of cycles they’ve had one of the best turnouts in the country. Now all of a sudden it’s one of the worst in the state.

[Ethan Kelly @ethanckelly]

Great news for Senator Adam Laxalt, Senator Mehmet Oz, Senator Herschel Walker, and Senator Blake Masters!

[John Bresnahan @bresreports]

How does democracy function when one person can donate $150 million for 1 Senate race? In a state where one of his companies has major facilities?

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

I don't know how predictive this stuff is but these *enormous* fundraising gaps strike me as auspicious for Dems 🤷‍♂️

[Political Polls @PpollingNumbers]

US Senate Ohio fundraising totals - Q3 2026

🔵 Sherrod Brown - $23M
🔴 Jon Husted - $5M

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

@JakeSherman He sounds confident lol

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

@burgessev There shouldn't be a "tilt" rating, it's too granular. Just do Lean/Likely/Safe like an adult lol

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

In theory, you should learn more as the election approaches. But in practice, the discussion often gets dumber in the final 3 weeks. Particularly in elections when the polls aren't changing much.
https://t.co/DcEqztP5MS

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

@JacksonMartinKS "Not actual analysis" you're a gentleman and a scholar

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

Probably nothing

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

@Shimmersoft I'll take it a step further - don't look into EV tea leaves, ever, for any state, for any reason

Your future self will thank you lol

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

@GorillaHpn They're not accurate when Trump's not on the ballot. In the same league as Trafalgar, their pro-GOP data manipulation just doesn't really carry over properly to midterms lol

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

@jello_jiggle @SeanTrende Oh no what a pity 😉

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

The problem is it’s borderline impossible to separate the signal from the noise. On net we would all be mentally healthier and more correct in our predictions long-term if everyone just stopped doing it lol

(But that’d get fewer clicks, and for some that’s all that matters)

[jack @thinbluesublime]

Still firmly on the side of “EV analysis is fake until you get pretty close to the election and even then it’s useful only in a few specific states”, but it is astonishing to see the amount of GOP cope about what the current EV data looks like.

[James Talarico @jamestalarico]

BREAKING: Our grassroots campaign raised $64 million in Q3 — the most of any Senate campaign in American history.

All without taking a dime from corporate PACs.

Our people-powered movement is going to change this broken, corrupt political system.

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

@Classybluebug Good for you. CO is def my favorite state outside of the Northeast

[slendie @DatBoiSlendie]

@SethAbrams1 @bdquinn Saw 1 is legit a good movie with a legendary twist. The rest are just torture porn lol