What if...?
In Luxembourg 🇱🇺 outside the capital city, there's an American memorial cemetery. The German cemetery is a 15 min walk away. On the other side of the trees.
What if...we fools had a choice not to make war on our brothers in arms?
https://t.co/pTGPWQmB6m
In the 1964 presidential election campaign, the young Ronald Reagan supported the Republican candidate Barry M. Goldwater with this speech. It is considered one of the best speeches ever given by a later US president.
Almost 60 years old, Reagan's message has lost none of its relevance. He is speaking to all the countries of the free world which support Ukraine today. He is speaking to all of us. Listen up!👇 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦✌️
@jasonzweigwsj “There’s no Fidelity “dead accounts” study:
The Fidelity "dead accounts" study is fake, not wrong - Independently Financed via @_Glasp
https://t.co/ZDZNLHLrBu
As with the Einstein quote: it's fake, not wrong.
Sharing 4 interesting charts on China 🇨🇳over the last ~30 years and some thoughts:
1) China’s GDP grew ~30X from 1993 to 2022
2) But China’s stock market (proxied by MSCI China) went nowhere, and is actually lower than before
3) That’s because MSCI China’s Earnings per Share (EPS) too almost went nowhere
4) No surprise MSCI China’s PE multiples seem really cheap <10, and probably for good reason.
Thoughts:
1) The stock market is not the economy. Does not mean that the economy does well, the stock market will do well. Stocks follow fundamentals.
2) Better to be a long-term bottom-up stock investor, than a long-term index investor who is told to invest based on its rapidly growing economy.
2) Could it still stay cheap? Yes, though further significant downside seems limited.
3) Can the Chinese stock market go higher? Yes. But it needs to be driven by continued long-term EPS growth, and/or upward revaluation in PE valuation multiples.
4) We still own 3 Chinese companies, JD, Meituan and Tencent, but the overall allocation remains small. We are happy to increase further when we start to see signs of green shoots.
Pondering something lately... people aren't loyal to companies, people are loyal to other people at companies. This is why good engineering management matters so much.
1/ Last week I uploaded pt. 1 of an $ASML presentation I gave to some investors. I discussed topics such as the industry, what the company does, financials, moat etc.
In Part 2 I will talk about management, capital allocation, risks, and valuation
Let's get on with it 👇
Everyone talks about long-term investing, but few people actually do it.
The biggest reason for underperformance both with retail as well as professional fund managers.
Investors unconsciously optimize for 1-year returns instead of 10-year returns...
Great read by Mauboussin.
What is your favorite example of insider buying when the stock gets slammed to the downside?
For ex: Jamie Dimon going in big on three separate occasions. Note to self: stop what I’m doing and follow Jamie into the stock…
Approaching shareholder letter season.
Have found length to be inversely related to performance and clarity.
These ten lesser-known letters can be read with one cup of coffee:
Wrote three industry deep dives this year (one is a podcast transcript):
1. Luxury
2. Spirits
3. Semiconductors
I always have trouble finding an industry primer before digging deep into any given company so I hope they were useful.
🔗 in the next tweet
Another day and another attack from Russia onto the beautiful city where I grew up - Kharkiv, Ukraine.
This time they destroyed the Kharkiv Palace Hotel, where @ngtalks_ua Angular conference was hosting their speakers.
You can see the same piano that @fmalcher01 played.
One company that is not mentioned enough on here is $EL.PA – the €82B Eyewear & Eyecare Powerhouse.
EssilorLuxottica is completely vertically integrated, which means they cover every single step of the value creation process - from product development and manufacturing to end-consumer sale.
Aside from their vast physical scale, EL's brand and long-term licensing agreement portfolio is without a doubt unmatched in the eyewear world.
It includes world-renowned brands such as $RACE, Chanel, Oakley, Ray-Ban, $LVMH's Tiffany, and Bulgari, $MONC, and $BRBY.
Looking back over the last 15 years, the company has managed to grow its revenue and FCF at a 15% and 11% CAGR respectively.
We've just created this infographic that illustrates EssilorLuxottica's most notable mergers, acquisitions, and licensing agreements over the last 35 years: