Alex Davidovich

Product Designer & Builder from Kyiv.

[Alex Davidovich @davidovich1993]

@claudeai Can someone from @AnthropicAI or @claudeai get back to me regarding the identity verification issue? I'm still being charged for the account, but I can't use Claude Code or Claude Design. Please get back to me.

[Alex Davidovich @davidovich1993]

@AnthropicAI Can someone from @AnthropicAI or @claudeai get back to me regarding the identity verification issue? You keep charging me for the account but do not allow me to use Claude Code or even Claude Design. Please get back to me.

[Alex Davidovich @davidovich1993]

After watching @harari_yuval new interview with @TheEconomist, I realized how much my view of him has changed.

I used to admire him a lot. I thought he was extremely intelligent, and I still think he is. But intelligence doesn’t protect anyone from ignorance outside their domain, bad reasoning, or a consistently negative attitude.

The more I listen to him, the more I find myself distancing from his worldview.

My current impression: he sometimes sounds like a COC (Chief of Complaints).

Successful, rich people are villains. Many games are framed as zero-sum. Frontier technologies are primarily threats. Existing systems are deeply flawed. Everything should somehow be different.

Lots of diagnosis. No solutions that can actually be tested against reality.

And what bothers me most isn’t pessimism itself. We need people who identify risks that builders and optimists miss.

But I wish more of the world’s best thinkers combined criticism with a bias toward action: identify what’s broken, ask great questions, seriously engage with people trying to build things, and help search for solutions rather than only explaining why things might go wrong.

Maybe I’m missing something.

But that’s my current snapshot of how I see Noah Harari today.

[Alex Davidovich @davidovich1993]

On predicting the future…

“There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know.”

— John Kenneth Galbraith, cited in The Wall Street Journal, January 22, 1993.

[Alex Davidovich @davidovich1993]

Brilliant

[Daniel Belfort ⊙ @danielbelfort]

Introducing Offprint™

The physical magazine made from everything you "save for later" but never actually go back to read.

Find online, read offline.

Print media is back!

[Alex Davidovich @davidovich1993]

@awilkinson @sivers Imagine also sharing your top 10 highlights from those books?

[Alex Davidovich @davidovich1993]

@DenShtilierman @iraterekh Дуже сильно! Швидкий OODA loop на всіх етапах змінює все.

[Alex Davidovich @davidovich1993]

“We’re paying good pilots for an unusual, not usual” — @kennricci

[Oliur @UltraLinx]

Humans are designed to create. This is why you get depressed if all you do is consume.

[Alex Davidovich @davidovich1993]

Markets are adaptive ecosystems.

Edges exist, but only temporarily.

As investors discover and exploit them:

competitors copy them,
capital flows in,
behavior changes,
and the edge erodes.

Never marry a strategy.

[Alex Davidovich @davidovich1993]

The things I think will make me happy forever usually only make me happy for a while.

There’s a name for it: hedonic adaptation. My brain quickly gets used to improvements (and setbacks), and my happiness drifts back to its usual level.

The dream car eventually becomes just my car.

Worth remembering before I spend years chasing something while expecting it to permanently change how I feel.

[Alex Davidovich @davidovich1993]

@lightsilver323 https://t.co/15OR5Ixa3q

Track every meaningful development around the stocks you own against a living, falsifiable investment thesis, so you know when your thesis is getting stronger or weaker.

[Alex Davidovich @davidovich1993]

One of the most valuable ideas I learned from probability theory is Expected Value EV). The concept used by many great investors.

It teaches you to evaluate decisions, not outcomes.

A bad outcome doesn’t necessarily mean you made a bad decision.

A great outcome doesn’t necessarily mean you made a good one. You might have just gotten lucky.

I found out the hard way that the only way to improve my decisions is to relentlessly seek the truth.

If I draw the wrong conclusions from random outcomes, I’ll damage both my motivation and the quality of my future decisions.

[Alex Davidovich @davidovich1993]

Instead of asking: Did it work?

I’m asking: If I repeated this decision 100 times, would I expect to come out ahead?”

That’s how professional poker players, investors, and statisticians think.

Good decisions can lose.
Bad decisions can win.
One outcome tells you almost nothing.

Variance explains why good decisions sometimes produce bad outcomes.

I always try to get closer to the truth, so I evaluate decisions, not outcomes.

[Alex Davidovich @davidovich1993]

@RafaelBragana6 DMed you the link.

[Alex Davidovich @davidovich1993]

Built a tolls for myself. Turns out other investors might find it useful too.

Surfaced tracks ticker mentions from investors I follow and shows what happened after.

For example:

• Who mentioned $NBIS, $ONDS, $SIVE, or $SNDK first?
• How many others followed?
• What was the return after the mention?
• Which investors consistently discover ideas early, and how do those stocks perform afterward?

It’s essentially a historical record of who said what, and when.

👇 Link in the comments.

Would love your honest feedback. What's useful, what's missing, and what you'd like to see next.

[Alex Davidovich @davidovich1993]

@tlatlz @aleabitoreddit DMed you. I would appreciate any feedback. I found it very useful for myself. Recent case was with $COIN where a lot of catalysts signaled that my thesis is broken.

[Alex Davidovich @davidovich1993]

Btw I built a tool that helps you create a falsifiable investment thesis for every stock you own, then tracks everything happening around that stock against it. It definitely helps in cases like this.

I don’t want to spam here, so if anyone’s interested, just DM me and I’ll send you the link with more details. I’m actively looking for beta testers.

[Alex Davidovich @davidovich1993]

Solid foundation for sure. Read it when i was 15. Understood 30% of it back then. Don’t want to advertise but I’m really proud of what I’ve built for people who are new to investing. You can watch how real calls age in the market, https://t.co/ygKbuEvOsa logs what experienced voices said and what happened next. Free, no signup.

[Alex Davidovich @davidovich1993]

@KawzInvests @Frenchie_ @Frenchie_ has even deeper track record than the names mentioned here. I recently added him to Surfaced to track all of his historical ticker mentions and subsequent performance.

https://t.co/qQejxMN8My

I just launched it and would love to hear your feedback.