Dawid Kamiński

Sługa międzynarodowego kapitału i fan pizzy hawajskiej. Wychodzę na pole.

[Richard Hanania @RichardHanania]

When I listen to tech people talk about economics and politics, I'm increasingly reminded of public health experts on Covid.

The experts on Covid knew a lot about biology. They could tell us how the disease could spread, explain the concept of R₀, and tell us that vaccines would be good for us. They were "right" about a lot when they stuck to what they knew.

But when epidemiologists started talking about politics and what to do about covid, they were completely out of their depth. They didn't have the tools to do cost-benefit analysis regarding policies like mask mandates, school closures, and lockdowns. They had half-baked theories about human psychology and could justify lying because they didn't understand that this might cause a political backlash.

Tech people know a lot about AI. But then I hear them talk about all jobs going extinct and hyper charged growth. They have crackpot ideas about political economy, and predict that the welfare state will disappear as the value of labor declines. And yet you don't find AI leading to supercharged growth, and the unemployment rate hasn't changed. Their predictions that the welfare state might wither away and a few rich people might capture all the gains show no signs of being true. They're just speculation, and the kinds of ideas that people who study economics and political science generally find a lot less plausible.

Another parallel is that the tech industry is experiencing a political backlash, just as the public health establishment did. I don't want to stretch this analogy too far, but I think that the common theme is that both communities were way too overconfident about their understanding of politics and social dynamics.

[Dawid Kamiński @dba_kaminski]

@ML_Burn IMO in other social sciences different paradigms can coexist but in econ 'mainstream' believes they are like real science and other approaches are all cranks.

Personally I like heterodox Austrian stuff but I understand why 'mainstream' guy may hołd this view of heterodox econ

[Dawid Kamiński @dba_kaminski]

@florianederer @LTG_Veers I think Hayek on dispersed knowledge is widely known and appreciated. Rest of Austrian ideas probably not so much, but every now and then Sargent will cite Rothbard or Calvo will write something appreciating Austrians.

https://t.co/KklvJNHZEU

[Dawid Kamiński @dba_kaminski]

Austriacy to marginalna pseudonauka która nic nie znaczy vol. 2137

[Alex Imas @alexolegimas]

Re reading Hayek is one of the best uses of time. The only better use is reading him for the first time (if you haven’t).

[Dawid Kamiński @dba_kaminski]

@MarekTatala To nie neoliberalizm, to po prostu późna socjaldemokracja

[Dawid Kamiński @dba_kaminski]

@yrilibek

[Dawid Kamiński @dba_kaminski]

@mean_field_zane By copying his beliefs you will also ascend to godlike IQ level. Do it. That's the only way to be smarter than AI.

[Dawid Kamiński @dba_kaminski]

@TAMMYSZN Krugman lives rent-free in heads of Mises Institite guys, even 20 years after GFC

[Dawid Kamiński @dba_kaminski]

@PanPisula Polska potrzebuje Norymbergi dla lekarzy

[Dawid Kamiński @dba_kaminski]

@Wad_emecum Najbardziej kontrowersyjna chyba opinia o Lend Lease?

[Dawid Kamiński @dba_kaminski]

@JakubDudek97 Mam tak samo. W pociągu jeszcze spoko, w tramwaju albo autobusie bez szans.

[Dawid Kamiński @dba_kaminski]

@RBCtabris Recently I was reading this and author even included formal model of Catholic Integralism. It's almost like political economy!

[Dawid Kamiński @dba_kaminski]

@captgouda24 Has anyone checked Milei's academic papers published before he entered politics? Were they that bad?

[Dawid Kamiński @dba_kaminski]

@lyrasie lol no

https://t.co/Nq3Cq5IVre

[Grzegorz Siemionczyk 🚲 @GSiemionczyk]

...InPost jest wyjątkiem. Reguła jest taka: rentowne* zagraniczne firmy płacą w 🇵🇱 średnio takie same podatki jak krajowe (~1,34% przychodu), a mediana obciążeń tych pierwszych jest wyższa niż drugich (1% vs 0,7%). Jeśli uwzględnić też firmy nierentowne*, obraz jest podobny⬇️2/6

[Dawid Kamiński @dba_kaminski]

@JeremiahDJohns

[Dawid Kamiński @dba_kaminski]

@RepealTCPA1947 It's like Dalai Lama but our own, Western

[Dawid Kamiński @dba_kaminski]

@RBCtabris Jeden szczeniacki wybryk w okresie nastoletniej miłości przekreśla szanse na zostanie dołączenie do elit intelektualnych [*]

[Dawid Kamiński @dba_kaminski]

@Jackbmeyer Soon doing any research on Great Financial Crisis will be reserved for economic historians only

[Ian Golan @iangolan]

Nie, Finlandia nie powinna być wzorem poboru dla Polski. Zapraszam na wątek, gdzie analizuję ponad godzinę manipulacji i absurdalnych pomysłów Mentzena. 🧵