didi

Entrepreneur since 1998 and Trader since 1997.

[didi @dbreihof]

GTA 6 startet in 13 Sprachen.
Am Launch-Tag.

Spanisch und Portugiesisch für Lateinamerika.
Große europäische Sprachen mit dabei.
Lokales Marketing über Büros und Partner.

Ops-Detail, kein Trailer-Detail.
So wird aus einem bekannten Namen ein globales Event.

[didi @dbreihof]

GTA 6 startet kurz vor Black Friday und Weihnachten.
Der Kalender macht den Spike fast unvermeidlich.
Die Plattform danach nicht.

GTA V hat gezeigt: der lange Cashflow kommt nicht aus Woche 1.

Worauf schaust du zuerst: Spike oder Plattform?

[didi @dbreihof]

GTA 6 kostet die Wirtschaft angeblich eine Milliarde Produktivität.
Noch bevor ein Euro Umsatz da ist.

So sieht ein Hype-Zyklus aus: erst Memes, dann die Finanz-Story, dann die Zahlen.
Billboards und Pre-Demand? Oft Rauschen. Manchmal frühes Signal.

Woran misst du den Katalysator zuerst: Lautstärke oder Cashflow?

[didi @dbreihof]

GTA 6 kostet die Wirtschaft angeblich eine Milliarde Produktivität.
Noch bevor ein Euro Umsatz da ist.

So sieht ein Hype-Zyklus aus: erst Memes, dann die Finanz-Story, dann die Zahlen.
Billboards und Pre-Demand? Oft Rauschen. Manchmal frühes Signal.

Woran misst du den Katalysator zuerst: Lautstärke oder Cashflow?

[didi @dbreihof]

Wird GTA 6 das Spiel des Jahrzehnts? Viele wetten darauf. Weniger klar ist, ob der Launch-Hype bei Take-Two schon weitgehend eingepreist ist und die eigentliche Story erst danach beginnt: die Transition von Box-Sale zu Online-Ökosystem.

Was zählt für dich schwerer: Woche-1-Zahlen oder Spielerbindung 12 Monate später?

[didi @dbreihof]

Wenn schwache Jobs auf klebrige Inflation treffen, preist der Markt nicht nur Zinsen neu. Er preist Narrative neu. Der Edge liegt nicht im nächsten Print. Sondern darin zu wissen, welcher Print das Regime ändert und welcher nur Rauschen darin ist.

Regime-Wechsel oder Rauschen: woran erkennst du den Unterschied zuerst?

[didi @dbreihof]

@RealSimpleAriel You are overtrading

[didi @dbreihof]

@robrtcode BS

[Solflare - The Solana Wallet @solflare]

One person who likes this post gets a $1000 Solflare pack.

You have 24 hours. 💛

[Viktor Oddy @viktoroddy]

Claude Sonnet 5 is crazy efficient for web deisgn.

❤️‍🔥Just recorded a 18-min tutorial on how to build award-winning websites with Claude Code + Sonnet 5!

[didi @dbreihof]

@TheShortBear This is BS. Turkey is Nato Member

[didi @dbreihof]

Wie gehst du mit dem Markt um?

[Mark Minervini @markminervini]

As always, risk management is paramount.
In a market under distribution, tightening stops and prioritizing capital preservation isn’t just prudent — it’s essential. When the tape refuses to reward low-risk setups and breakouts fail to follow through, discipline becomes your greatest edge and cash is king.
History shows that conflict-driven declines eventually create meaningful buying opportunities — but not immediately. Risk is elevated, and patience is required.
This too will resolve. And when it does, a new upleg will emerge from the geopolitical rubble — as it always has. https://t.co/JXzFFTmMtn

[didi @dbreihof]

@TheShortBear Was für ein Juwel!

[Finn Stockinger @FinnStockinger]

Special Report:
The Geopolitics of Light. Photonics in the Grip of MoXton.

Before we dive in: Bookmark this report. The photonics supply chain is moving faster than the GPU market did in 2023. You will want this map when the next round of MoXton headlines hits the tape.

Investors have been racing for every gram of Nvidia silicon for two years, but a brutal truth is surfacing: silicon is hitting a wall. At speeds of 1.6T and 3.2T, traditional copper in data centers acts like an insulator. The future of AI is photonics: transmitting data via light.

However, in February 2026, the path for that light was blocked by a geopolitical checkmate. The MoXton Act (officially the Remote Access Security Act) and the Section 232 Proclamations are the legislative pincers currently reshuffling the portfolios of the world's biggest tech players.

🛑 1. AXTI in the Pincers: 25% Tariffs and Chinese Blockades

If you hold AXT Inc $AXTI, January 2026 was a cold shower. First, the Section 232 Proclamation slapped a 25% tariff on the import of Chinese-origin compound semiconductor wafers. Shortly after, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) tightened the screws by delaying export permits for Indium Phosphide (InP).

The Verdict: $AXTI is currently a patient on the operating table. CEO Morris Young has announced a plan to double InP capacity outside of China by the second half of 2026. The billion-dollar question is whether they can scale in Vietnam and the US fast enough before tariffs and permit delays drain their cash reserves.

⛓️ 2. The Raw Material Monopoly: 5N Plus $VNP.TO

Indium does not grow on trees. In a world where China regulates exports as a strategic weapon, Canadian-based 5N Plus $VNP.TO has become the gatekeeper.

They are the only Western refiner capable of producing "seven-nines" (99.99999%) purity indium. Backed by an $18M US government grant for their Utah facilities, $VNP.TO is a classic play for national security. Without their ultra-pure indium, there are no AI lasers.

⚡ 3. The Silicon Prosthetic and the Thermal Ceiling
Giants like GlobalFoundries $GFS and Tower Semiconductor $TSEM are promoting Silicon Photonics (SiPh) as a workaround for the InP crisis.

While it is an excellent cost-effective solution for the 800G mass market, it hits a glass wall at 3.2T. Silicon does not emit light. It requires gluing an InP laser as an external light engine. At higher speeds, these modules become miniature heaters exceeding 40W, leading to thermal drift.

The Conclusion: Silicon is a temporary bridge. The true AI elite will require pure InP and TFLN (Thin-Film Lithium Niobate) technology, where Lumentum $LITE currently holds the edge.

🔬 4. The Emission Giants: Lumentum $LITE vs Coherent $COHR

This is where the magic happens. Lumentum $LITE is the king of the "great escape," utilizing factories in Japan and the US to capture customers fleeing from $AXTI.

Meanwhile, Coherent $COHR is the powerhouse of vertical integration. They do not just buy components; they grow them. Their EML (Electro-absorption Modulated Lasers) are currently the gold standard for Nvidia-based clusters. If you want to bet on the brains of photonics, these are your targets.

🌐 5. Corning $GLW: The Backbone of the Glass Grid

While others argue over chips, Corning $GLW is building the roads that light travels on. Their new generation of ultra-small diameter fibers is the circulatory system of 1.6T networks.

$GLW is a safe harbor. They profit regardless of which chip technology wins the race to 3.2T. Their $12B backlog proves that the AI infrastructure build-out is only just beginning.

🏭 6. The Ultimate Choke-Points: Fabrinet $FN and Nittobo https://t.co/G2l6ano2m7

Finally, we look at the two narrowest bottlenecks in the world:

➡️Fabrinet $FN: The only company capable of mass-assembling these complex optical sub-assemblies with sub-micron precision at their Thailand facilities. They are MoXton-compliant and indispensable for Broadcom and Nvidia.

➡️Nittobo https://t.co/G2l6ano2m7: An absolute, ruthless monopolist. They control 90% of the market for specialized Low-Dk (T-Glass). Without their glass fiber, the electrical signal blurs before it even reaches the laser. This is the real AI Tax.

📊 Investment Conviction: February 2026 Analysis

Capital is currently flowing toward safety and vertical control. 5N Plus $VNP.TO is the go-to for raw materials because Indium is the new oil, and they own the Western tap. Lumentum $LITE, up 38.5% YTD, is the primary beneficiary of the supply chain shift as they have capacity where the MoXton tariffs do not reach.

For those looking for high-risk recovery, AXT Inc $AXTI remains a speculative play on their ability to move production. However, the most consistent winner is Nittobo https://t.co/G2l6ano2m7, up nearly 48% YTD. Their dominance in Low-Dk glass means that until a physical alternative is found, they dictate the price of progress. Finally, Fabrinet $FN remains the essential execution partner for the entire industry.

💬 Discussion Time: The Photonics Paradox
The AI revolution is no longer just about software or GPU compute; it is a battle for the physical medium of data. As the MoXton restrictions tighten, the gap between the "integrated survivors" and the "fragile assembly lines" will only widen.

What is your conviction for the 1.6T era? Are you betting on the vertical integration of $COHR, or the untouchable monopoly of https://t.co/G2l6ano2m7?

If you found this deep-dive valuable, share it with your network and let's discuss the next bottleneck below. The light must flow.

#AI #Photonics #Investing #MoXtonAct #AXTI #LITE #Nittobo #Fabrinet #VNP #Coherent #Corning

[didi @dbreihof]

@jpgola what is it?

[didi @dbreihof]

@jpgola @CitronResearch Thank you!

[didi @dbreihof]

@TedHZhang I almost have all the same stocks as you...

[didi @dbreihof]

Claude Cowork sucks indefinitely

Who else is stuck because of rate limits in no time? anthropic Claude is useless with this limits!

you're out of extra usage · resets Feb 17, 2pm (UTC)

#claude #claudeCowork