decremental_martian

TMT Investor. Not investment advice

[decremental_martian @decr_martian]

@DemonFramed @TMTLongShort

[decremental_martian @decr_martian]

@mario_cibelli Yes. Re: definition change just seemed like an odd pivot, not sure what they’re trying to msg. One of the debates is the sustainability of VPC contribution to send volume growth as you comp over the initial efforts of mixing into high value senders. Think they have runway fwiw

[decremental_martian @decr_martian]

@degentradingLSD What’s the math bridging the implied move on 7709 right now per Hyperliquid SK (-14% so -28%) to EWY down another 17% after -14% today?

[decremental_martian @decr_martian]

@MH1411996 Managed mkts 2.0 product cycle is entirely at the whims of SHOP’s non-agentic commerce advertising budget, which appears to be slim to none. I don’t love the optical service fee take rate compression with 2.0 (tho they recoup in S&M). Non issue rn but stripe x lemonsqueezy…

[decremental_martian @decr_martian]

@evrgn11112231 CCCA isn’t a material impact to #s, but risk is (not saying I agree) LO look at the bill and say still strong moats, but the entrance of a 2nd/3rd mkt participant might chip away at the duopolistic economics that have accrued to V MA, so I don’t care that it’s cheap to history

[decremental_martian @decr_martian]

@evrgn11112231 Why V > MA over next 1-2y? Hear you on the multiple spread. V has positive revisions to look fwd to with the XB and VAS lines being mismodeled in h2. MA lacks revisions and potentially has #s downside. MA isn’t “free” of COF until 27’ and then do they lose credit?

[decremental_martian @decr_martian]

@connorrolain @AppLovin @northbeam Hey just curious about the remaining 13% of orders (41 + 47 =/ 100)? What do those represent?

[decremental_martian @decr_martian]

@fundaai High end of guide implies +23-23.5% for AWS q4

[decremental_martian @decr_martian]

Jassy to Amy with 20ppt less growth

[decremental_martian @decr_martian]

@P_Remarks 5.5x $8 ?

[decremental_martian @decr_martian]

@stablequan @myshoe9 @Yuchenj_UW That sounds super interesting - could you elaborate on what you meant earlier regarding llama 5 / “canceled”? Thanks

[decremental_martian @decr_martian]

@TMTLongShort @NimbleOpinions @obsidiancap1

[decremental_martian @decr_martian]

@NimbleOpinions @TMTLongShort @obsidiancap1 He’s not just any scientist…he’s the lord and savior.

[decremental_martian @decr_martian]

@frontrowbrian How does that make it any different? He’s cashing out, which is probably a net +ve for the structure anyway

[decremental_martian @decr_martian]

@FullySynergized Flavors & fragrances— destocking coming to an end + raws inflecting

[decremental_martian @decr_martian]

@JoeDoeKnowsGuy This is a short / materially overearning. 24’ nums have a ways to go…-ve revisions coming

[decremental_martian @decr_martian]

@NimbleOpinions $SHW

[decremental_martian @decr_martian]

@NimbleOpinions flavors & fragrances cos. $IFF good ex