Working capital is the most underestimated force in business.
Let’s imagine you have a business running at $ 500k per month of sales.
All of a sudden you experience a breakout moment:
- 15% sales growth month-over-month for a year
- With a net income margin of 10%
Extending that growth will lead to a total of $14.5M sales in the first year and $1.45M net income.
Now make some working capital assumptions:
- Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) of 30 Days
- Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO) of 30 Days
- Days Payable Outstanding (DPO) of 30 Days
i.e. a Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC) of 30 Days: (DSO + DIO - DPO).
Despite the $1.45M profitability, the business won’t generate any cashflow in year one. In fact it will outflow ~$375k of cash over those twelve months as it lays down the additional working capital needed to react to the growth.
Now, lets run some scenarios (see the image) assuming that same business starts with $ 1M of cash on the balance sheet:
If we assume the same dynamics, but instead imagine the business had poor inventory control, and ran on a CCC of 90 days. That same business would now have a negative cash balance of ~$3m by Christmas… or more accurately would be dead by June.
And at that CCC, even if the business 2.5x that net margin to 25%, the business would still run out of cash in 9 months (that is despite now generating ~$3.6M of profit).
Now imagine the opposite were true, the business, ran on a negative CCC of 60 days, funded by a willing supplier; with very tight inventory and receivables levels.
In this scenario, even if the net margin were only 5%, the cash balance would explode to over $ 5M (positive) by the end of the year.
In fact, at a negative 60 days CCC, even if the business operated at a 25% net loss margin, it would still survive the year (just about).
This illustrates how much more sensitive working capital (and cashflow) is to changes in the business, than any profit metric you can choose.
I call this effect: The Cashflow Megaphone.
And as a long time turnaround CFO, understanding this inside out was the most valuable technical weapon in my armory in bending broken cashflows back into the black.
And in times of volatile trading and macro conditions, these dynamics are more important than ever (especially when supply chains are gummed up like they are right now)
Exceptional people are rare. When you find someone wonderful, invest in them.
-When you find a great employee, pay them well.
-When you find a great friend, prioritize the relationship.
-When you find a great spouse, out-love them each day.
Relationships are probably the most important part of life. Take care of the great ones.
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You don't magically become focused. You practice it. You notice you're distracted and snap out of it, over and over again until it's second nature. Most people have not trained this muscle, and they are not anywhere close to as focused as they think they are.
A lesson I wish I learned earlier: You can get pretty damn far in life by just doing what you say you’re going to do. Be someone people can count on to show up and do the work. Reliability is the cheat code. Stop overcomplicating success. Show up, do the work, repeat. That’s it.
Kieran, Hey. Hope you're doing great! what you’ve built with @thread is truly admirable.
I’m working on a startup called StyleZen in India, tackling a similar problem, and would love the chance to learn from your journey.
Your insights could make a huge difference in shaping our approach, and I’d be happy to share ideas that might also add value to what you’re working on.
organisms that have become highly specialized for a prticular niche can persist over time by developing unique adaptations that optimize their success within those environments.
Just as in an ecosystem, people who narrowly specialize can get terribly good at occupying some niche
you cannot expect your baby to grow up with your values if you hand her over to a nanny.
you got to protect her at this stage.
{delegation in an early stage startup}
Take up one idea. make that one idea your life - think of it, dream of it, live on that idea. let the brain muscles, nerves, every part of your body, be full of that idea, and just leave every other idea alone. this is the way to success
~ Swami Vivekananda
read idea as problem
Imagine your customer is a hitchhiker. You pull over to give him a ride, and the one question on his mind: Where are you going? You roll down the window and start talking about your mission statement, or how your grandfather built this car with his bare hands etc.
~Donald Miller
@Molson_Hart or just shift to India. I've many friends in the USA and in Canada. None of them are happy with the health care. The speed with which Indian health care operates (when compared to these countries) is mind-blowing
Instagram: Feeling pressure to look flawless
LinkedIn: Building your personal brand
StyleZen: Finding your signature style because nobody's perfect ;)
Download the app now: https://t.co/4XeuqyD3gH
#stylezen#startupindia#fashiontech
Riding multibaggers is like running a marathon. In a short 100m sprint there will be many people cheering for you from start to end. But when you are running a 42 km marathon there comes a phase in between where you are completely lonely and devoid of any cheers and whistles. People doubt whether you can complete the marathon or not. They doubt your conviction and thesis. The temperament and mental strength you show in this lonely phase will decide whether you complete the marathon successfully or not. #investingbehaviour
Social Media today is full of noises. Sometimes investors tend to doubt themselves when they hear no claps and whistles. But that's the phase where the real strength of character gets tested.
Skepticism and Pessimism are 2 key ingredients that provide good business below their intrinsic value. Every multibagger initially is a blank page with ample skepticism and negativity.
This is Tommy Hilfiger.
He took the world by storm overnight, but not because of his clothing.
Here’s how a genius marketing stunt put Hilfiger on the map before his designs did:
(this story blew my mind)
A product is a theory of how to solve a problem.
Marketing is a unique explanation of a solution.
A founder is uniquely qualified to build a company.
Good products are hard to vary.
Good marketing is hard to vary.
Good founders are hard to vary.
Founder-Product-Market-Fit