Dennis de Swart

Software Developer

[Dennis de Swart @DennisDeveloper]

Bitcoin long term chart guesstimate update: I think top around Aug. 2025 to Dec. 2025. Next bottom guess Nov. 2026. Power law indicator credit @caprioleio https://t.co/zORZa9qeQT

[Dennis de Swart @DennisDeveloper]

If you look at the dates on this Bitcoin chart you can see the 4 year cycles. The number of days of top/bottom after each Halving is also very similar. #Bitcoin $BTC

[Dennis de Swart @DennisDeveloper]

#Bitcoin dominance rising is not bullish IMO. It might be preparing for a big rally, but BTC dominance still seems low for a big rally to begin. Timing is also off. Seems too far from Halving for a big rally to begin

[Dennis de Swart @DennisDeveloper]

@jsblokland Classic H&S pattern forming? Also reduced RSI on the September peak versus July. Looks similar to Q4 2021

[Dennis de Swart @DennisDeveloper]

@MarcDeMesel This. Legal requests should get priority.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

BitTime + Log Regression Curves

The most accurate #Bitcoin time model meets the most accurate price model (created in Dec 2020, called both 2021 tops).

Just like last cycle, price has found support around the top of layer 3 after its first big correction.

BitTime says the bottom occurred in August, and rally is coming in October and November.

The next step is probably a revisit to layer 4, currently priced at 34k and increasing.

BitTime says sideways price action first half of 2024, probably between layer 3 and 4 of the log regression.

Second early top June 2024, bottom in August.

Cycle top December 2025, my expectation 90 - 130k.

[Borriss @_Borriss_]

Less than 31 hours since OpenAI started dropping the ChatGPT vision feature on pro users...

People are scratching their heads in disbelief.

10 wild examples:

[Dennis de Swart @DennisDeveloper]

Next bottom was the last top, so guess 60K would be reasonable for a bottom in 2026

[Dennis de Swart @DennisDeveloper]

Bitcoin long term chart guesstimate update: I think top around Aug. 2025 to Dec. 2025. Next bottom guess Nov. 2026. Power law indicator credit @caprioleio https://t.co/zORZa9qeQT

[Dennis de Swart @DennisDeveloper]

If you look at the dates on this Bitcoin chart you can see the 4 year cycles. The number of days of top/bottom after each Halving is also very similar. #Bitcoin $BTC

[Dennis de Swart @DennisDeveloper]

Why: because tops tend to happen about the same amount of days before Halvings. Same with bottoms. The timing is much more important than the amount. Guesstimate would be 300K. Note that bear years are 2014,2018,2022, so sell in 2026?

[Dennis de Swart @DennisDeveloper]

Maybe Bitcoin is an Unknown Financial Object? #BTC https://t.co/ZmZ4iaaS1E

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 SEC Chair Gary Gensler says #Bitcoin is not a security, but refuses to say it's a commodity.

[Dennis de Swart @DennisDeveloper]

My guesstimate for start of the "crazy" pump is about August 2024 and top around September 2025

[Dennis de Swart @DennisDeveloper]

If you look at the dates on this Bitcoin chart you can see the 4 year cycles. The number of days of top/bottom after each Halving is also very similar. #Bitcoin $BTC

[Dennis de Swart @DennisDeveloper]

This is long by a small margin. But I would close if it hits $401. Because that is the underside of the uptrend band. Also don't want to break that August support. Might bounce though. https://t.co/FuvD5IdEDu

[Dennis de Swart @DennisDeveloper]

My current technical view on NVIDIA: would keep long if long. I would sell if it hits $401.

[Dennis de Swart @DennisDeveloper]

My current technical view on Ethereum: sidelined or short. I would buy if it hits $1677 dollar / 1574 euro. #ETH

[Dennis de Swart @DennisDeveloper]

My current technical view on NVIDIA: would keep long if long. I would sell if it hits $401.

[Dennis de Swart @DennisDeveloper]

@finalixv Difficult to say, but my guess: timing is more important than price. Because getting closer to the Halving, I think chances for upside will improve. And Fed turning will help. Both will likely be in Q1/Q2 2024.

[Dennis de Swart @DennisDeveloper]

#BTC The crypto market has been in a price range since last summer. It happens often after a large crash and before the Halving. See 2019. But this range is just 75% high and the 2019 range was 275%. So the current range is very tight. When it breaks, things will happen

[Dennis de Swart @DennisDeveloper]

My personal guess is, one last dip to the bottom of the range about 800B this winter. Then major bull run for 1 or 2 years.

[Dennis de Swart @DennisDeveloper]

@MarcDeMesel And trying to use courts to force a political decision is plain wrong. Seperation of powers was a strength of Western countries, but this is getting violated more and more.

[Dennis de Swart @DennisDeveloper]

@MarcDeMesel Many people did not travel the world. Thus they don't understand or respect the value systems of others. I think the West still tries to impose their value system on others. But if the West disrespects families then the West values are not that good IMO.

[Dennis de Swart @DennisDeveloper]

I think 2023 is a bit like 2019. Up/down/flat... bit useless for trading. But expecting 2024/2025 to be like 2020/2021. So long term optimist

[Dennis de Swart @DennisDeveloper]

$BTC my guesstimate for Bitcoin. I expect it to go up a bit more. Maybe 40K or even 45K. But I think it is probable that in Q3/Q4 it will move back down into the shown long-term averages. So Q3/Q4 dump. And then pump at Halving.