Este es uno de los cambios estructurales más importantes del último tiempo.
La ruptura del canal bajista, debería traer consigo un entorno de tasas más elevadas durante un tiempo y eso tendrá impactos en gobiernos, empresas y personas.
The macro environment has significantly changed now
10-year Treasury yield has broken out of its secular downtrend
Driven by inflationary pressures since 2022
Higher rates are the new normal
Do you remember all those stories last year about the #demise of the #dollar. Such hyperbole is generally a great opportunity to buy something.
h/t @SoberLook
Bueno!! pues ya estamos en los techos de coste de financiación del año 2007...pero tranquilo que esta vez va a ser diferente, no ocurrirá nada de nada.
La situación de los CDS en Estados Unidos empeora.
El coste de protección contra un default de EEUU durante los próximos 6 meses ha alcanzado cotas realmente tremendas... No hay precedentes en la década.
Se llegará a un acuerdo, para el tensionamiento de la cuerda da miedo.
The 2-Year US Treasury yield has moved up to 4.78%, its highest level since July 2007. A year ago this yield was at 1.54% and two years ago it was at 0.12%.
Goldman today raised its peak Fed forecast by 25bps to 5-525%.
Exactly one year ago, the bank expected that the first rate hike wouldn't take place until July 2023.
El año pasado decía que las valoraciones que se pagaban por las FAANG+ stocks era un disparate y advertía que lo que ocurrió con Nokia, AOL, Cisco en 2001 y 2002 podría volver a ocurrir ahora con las FAANG y la gente decía que estaba loco! FB -75%, Netflix -76%, ¿AMZ -67% hoy?...
Simply remarkable: shipping rate for 40-ft container from Shanghai to Los Angeles has slipped below long-term average (going back to 2011, full series), putting to bed notion that shipping rates are still elevated relative to entire pre-pandemic era
Even though stock market volatility (blue) has returned over past couple days, spike in VIX has not been anywhere close to FX (orange) or bond market volatility (white) … note different scales for indexes
The Fed can stop pretending - it's lost all control; the alternative is a depression and stocks down 80%.
Average inflation targeting has been the Fed's most catastrophic decision