Ditto

“Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome.” Charlie Munger •••Investing starts as a voting machine and ends a weighing machine

[Dave Collum @DavidBCollum]

My Dad once said about national healthcare, "Sounds good in principle but when you ask the government to spend your money they do a terrible job. Here are over $1.2 billion of your tax dollars being given to Pfizer to give Covid vaccines to kids and other vaccines to adults. This is a crime syndicate and there seems to be nothing--absolutely nothing--we can do to stop it. You ain't gonna solve this at the ballot box.

https://t.co/h3Tyv1Zgg0

[Ditto @DittoTopper]

@Hedgeye_Staples @HedgeyeFood This is how I envision Bennett this weekend. “Doing research!” 💪

[Ditto @DittoTopper]

@FordWealth A whole lot of Thermodynamics in that truck 😂

[Ditto @DittoTopper]

@PureCycleTech @ProcterGamble @tide $PCT Smells like Revenue to me

[PureCycleTech @PureCycleTech]

It’s like sending your kids off to the 1st day of school!

We’re proud to share that the first shipment of PureFive® resin is headed off to @ProcterGamble to be transformed into caps for select bottles of @tide.

We look forward to seeing them on store shelves later this year.

[Adam Khoo @adamkhootrader]

As everyone watches the SpaceX IPO today, its worth remembering this advice from Buffett

"The idea that a newly issued security (IPO)—brought to market at a time of the seller's choosing and surrounded by massive hype—is the single best bargain among thousands of global businesses is absolute nonsense.

When an offering carries a ridiculous 7% commission just to incentivize salespeople, it simply cannot be the most attractive investment available.

While people easily get caught up in the excitement of a new launch, look at the reality: you have thousands of existing public companies whose prices are set by a natural auction market, free from aggressive promotion or hidden fees.

It makes no sense to buy a security precisely when an insider decides the timing is perfect to sell. Frankly, it isn't worth spending five seconds thinking about IPOs."
- Warren Buffett

[Knicks Memes @KnicksMemes]

The Knicks after Wu-Tang Clan performed at halftime

[The Vigilant Fox 🦊 @VigilantFox]

Rob Gronkowski confirms he still hasn't really tapped into the $70,629,507 he made in the NFL.

As a rookie, he figured out that if he lived off endorsements and played for 4 years, he would never need to work another day in his life.

“Then things kept growing.”

LEONARD FOURNETTE: “So, is it true you still haven’t spent a dime of your NFL money?”

GRONK: “I was a second-round pick. It was $4 million. Like, 3.5 was guaranteed. And I was like, so if I play those four and that’s all I have, I can put 2 million in my bank. And I was like, ‘I’m good.’ I thought just renting an apartment was great.”

“I got brought up as more of a frugal guy, frugal family. I was using my brother’s equipment. They would hand it down to me. So it wasn’t like I had anything new growing up. So I didn’t even know what new was.”

“So if I save my money and live off a couple of the endorsements, doing the cards, little appearance over there, I never have to work at 24 years old if I just play four years in the league.”

“So I had that mindset, and then things just kept growing. So then I never tapped into my NFL money, really. If you look at it, I still have my NFL money.”

[Jarvis Landry and Leonard Fournette listen in awe and congratulate him]

[Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy]

$PCT Convert Arb 101, 6/11/26:

After speaking with some of my old convert arb coverage today (I did convert arb for over two decades in a former life), here’s my 2c on the new convert deal and share offering.

Old convert was on 100% delta, except for Sylebra’s $50 mm outright position. Net delta shares “to cover”: ~13.5 mm

New convert also sold on 100% delta, net of $36 mm over allotment (“shoe”) and net of Sylebra rolling into $50 mm of new bonds. Net delta shares to short: ~21.9 mm.

Theoretical net amount to short: 7.8 mm

New share issuance of 17.7 mm shares was placed at least 80% into “strong hands”/LT holders, which leaves only 3.5 mm sh up for churn. Between the 7.8 mm “to short” and the 3.5 mm up for churn that’s 11.3 mm shares potentially for sale.

Total dilution is about 14%. Sh out was 180 mm before today, and after today, it’s about 206.3 mm. Between that and today’s massive “volume” of 37 mm shares and stock decline, situation looks heavy right?

It’s the OPPOSITE, and here’s why:

Having been in this market for almost 25 years, I can tell you that these offerings are almost always preceded by folks “in the know” pre-positioning. Stock declined from $14 over the last several days to be priced at $8.21 today. You think that was a surprise to the arbs? I wouldn’t count on it.

Of the 11.3 mm shares “for sale” I am willing to bet that 50-75% of that was hedged in the prior couple days. Arbs likely OVER-hedged into today and net COVERED today.

Why was the volume so heavy? That’s another thing outsiders don’t get. When convert deals are sold “on swap” to arbs, the volume is double counted — buyers buy with a delta hedge and the sellers sell with a delta hedge. Today’s deal also involved an old deal getting unwound “on swap,” so the volume could have been artificially 4x’ed just based on these swap transactions.

The upshot of this is that I think the technicals are very asymmetric to the upside, and contrary to what it looks like, I think there is little to no overhang from this. I bought risk reversals today and effectively doubled my delta exposure today.

Finally, prior to today, my biggest fundamental concern for this company was their funding gap next year, and it made me queasy that they seemed to be counting on warrant exercise to close that gap. Today, they closed that gap, and even though I think they could have executed better, I think the fundamental story just got a lot more compelling as well.

[Ditto @DittoTopper]

@Coach_ADub Congrats!

[Anthony Winchester @Coach_ADub]

GO TROJANS ⚔️ | BANG BANG 💯

[Merlijn The Trader @MerlijnTrader]

THE BIGGEST IPOs OF THE LAST 15 YEARS HAVE ONE THING IN COMMON:

THEY CRUSHED THE PEOPLE WHO BOUGHT THE HYPE.

🇺🇸 Robinhood -90%. Rivian -88%. Lyft -79%. Coinbase -57%. Facebook -54%. Median max drawdown: -54% in year one.

Big brands. Big narratives. Big backing. Still brutal entries.

SpaceX has the same DNA: enormous hype, low float, early investors deep in the green and waiting to sell.

A great company isn't a great IPO buy. By the time everyone wants in, they are the liquidity.

[Reflection🪩 @0xReflection]

🚨 THE US REGULATORY SYSTEM JUST BROKE

In 48 hours, SpaceX goes public at $1.77 TRILLION - the biggest IPO ever

I've been trading for over a decade, and I have never seen them rewrite the rulebook like this

Nasdaq, MSCI, and the biggest brokers in America all bent their own rules for ONE private company

That doesn't happen by accident

Let me show you exactly what they did:

First, Fidelity dropped its minimum account size from $500,000 to $2,000

A 99.6% cut

Think about that:

The most exclusive door on Wall Street, thrown wide open to millions of small investors - days before the biggest debut in history.

Ask yourself one question

Why do they suddenly want YOU in?

Because somebody needs people to sell to.

SpaceX reserved 30% of the deal for retail

THREE TIMES the normal share

And even then, most people didn't get a full allocation.

So to grab more at Thursday's open, they're dumping everything else TODAY to raise cash.

That's half of the selling you're seeing.

The other half? The smart money front-running July.

Here's the trick:

SpaceX doesn't join the Nasdaq 100 on day one.

It joins 15 days later, because Nasdaq cut its own waiting period from 3 months to 15 days

Just for this.

The moment it joins, every QQQ fund on Earth is FORCED to buy.

$22–27 billion in automatic buying.

Translation: imagine 50 buses all forced to pull into the same gas station on the same morning.

The funds know the stampede is coming.

So they're selling now to free up cash for it. Retail selling. Institutions selling. At the exact same time.

THAT is your selloff.

Now here's the part nobody will say out loud:

When the most connected money on the planet builds a $1.7T exit door and hands the keys to the smallest investors in the market…

That's NOT generosity

That's distribution at the top.

We've seen this movie twice:

➮ 2000 Dotcom
➮ 2021 SPAC mania

Insiders cash out at insane valuations while the crowd chases the hype.

The math ain't mathing.

So you've got two choices in the next 48 hours:

Chase the most expensive IPO in history at the open…

Or read the prospectus and realize you might BE the exit.

The next few days will be INSANE, but don't worry - I'll break down every move as it happens, like I always do.

Like it or not, I called every major top and bottom of the last decade publicly. I'll call this one too.

Many people are going to wish they followed me before June 12, 2026.

Soon, you'll understand why.

[Dave Collum @DavidBCollum]

Private equity has bought up only 5-10% of nursing homes. Imagine, however, if they bought the nursing home with your mom and dad in it, stripmined it of its assets, and left the carcass in bankruptcy and your parents in the street. @gmorgenson and @JoshRosner's "These Are the Plunderers" can fill in the details of how this will happen.

My question: what would you do about it? I'm here for the comments.

[Rudy Havenstein, Senior Markets Commentator. @RudyHavenstein]

Wow!

The numbers involved with these IPO's is staggering, $1.819 TRILLION just for these three by my math.

That's equal to the amount of mortgage-backed securities the @federalreserve bought using fun coupons from 2013-2022!

An unimaginable number.

[Dave Collum @DavidBCollum]

The mean Case Shiller PE (CAPE) from 1870-1990 was 15. It dropped to 14 in the depths of the GFC. Equities were not cheap by that metric. It is now 41.5.

[Ditto @DittoTopper]

@zerohedge Gee I wonder why 🤔

[Michael Taylor @Mike_Taylor1972]

Was asked where the US States are on recycled-plastic mandates:
(see below)
Most States are in-process, but likely to mimic CA and NJ, which are VERY large mandates.
Until now, most could get a waiver on Polypropylene mandates as there has been no supplier.
$PCT's PureFive is just now available for most applications.

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

So SpaceX will require the entire US savings rate ($1T) by 2030…?! Seems reasonable.

[The DarkHorse Podcast @thedarkhorsepod]

Bret Weinstein cuts straight to the chase:

"We are going to have an endless battle in which those of us who see what we believe is clear evidence of some kind of election rigging or fraud are faced with indignation from a vast array of people portraying themselves as more rigorous and careful who say, 'Where is your evidence? Where exactly is your evidence that there was something wrong with this election?' And we are gonna be caught in the following predicament.

No piece of evidence is sufficient to establish that case. And the sum total of all of the evidence contains true things and false things. So it is also no good.

So the question is, can you logically deduce that something has gone wrong? I believe you can easily.

Can you prove it? No.

And not being able to prove it means that the election will proceed. It will be validated by all of the structures, including the courts. And that means that those who take on the power that derives from these elections will be the result of whatever process we just went through, whether it was an election that happened to be anomalous through organic means, or it was the result of some kind of fraud or election rigging. That is not an accident.

That is not an accident.

And the point that I wanna make primarily is the primary evidence against elections that look like this being organic is not actually in the trickle of evidence that we are actually able to see, the moment by moment vote count that does something strange during the night when some large tranche of ballots is suddenly counted or something like that.

The evidence is in the structure of how the elections are actually carried out. These elections are designed to allow fraud that cannot be detected and will not be prosecuted. And that's really the thing that we must focus on."

@BretWeinstein