RatesPlus

Macquarie Bank 1981-2010 Executive Director. FX Options, Equity Derivatives. Now Chairman of Alpha Investment Partners.

[RatesPlus @djrb111]

@Filapek Isn’t that just normally at end of quarter ? Anyway, the bull market is over. Remember this day.

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@DaveTaylorNews @giorgiacj As predicted !

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@JackieHansard Does Trump ?

[RatesPlus @djrb111]

@giorgiacj @DaveTaylorNews The cut is already priced in. IMO, when it is delivered in February, the accompanying statement will, in order to restrain excessive demand, make it clear that further cuts are most certainly not a “given”, and then the Aud will actually rally.

[RatesPlus @djrb111]

@cjoye Now at 94% probability !

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@MiffMidnight @DaveTaylorNews No need to just focus on the annual rate just because the headlines do. . If qtrly rate is 0.5 and falling, 4 x 0.5 =2%. I believe that’s how RBA will assess it.

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@DaveTaylorNews About time ! 😊

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@DaveTaylorNews The USD is up circa 3% against most currencies in October. AUD and Euro included.

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@DaveTaylorNews Thought current Treasury estimate of NAIRU js 4.25 … in any event it is a guess.

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@DaveTaylorNews Who in public office has ever guaranteed anything?

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@DaveTaylorNews It’s actually not that big a call. The market price shows it is a 50:50 chance that the FOMC cut by 25bps on the one hand or 50bps on the other.

[RatesPlus @djrb111]

@DaveTaylorNews I like the track this ie on, but mainly the AUD is rising because the USD is weakening against every currency. ie it is telling you the Fed is about to cut faster than other CBs (inc but not limited to Aust). It’s says USD rates down, not AUD rates up (but yes, relatively)

[RatesPlus @djrb111]

@jimmaxcricket Well, it’s actually on Stan Sport which is an additional subscription, over and above Stan. I think you just get rugby and Grand Prix tennis there ? Not worth it to me. Rugby ball in motion (per Test match) about 28 mins. Rugby League circa 63 mins.

[RatesPlus @djrb111]

@JamesGlynnWSJ No. Those calling for hikes are misguided IMHO. It is just too simplified to say oh, inflation is above 3%, therefore we should hike. It’s more nuanced. But for expectations sake, Gov will keep saying hikes are possible if this is the case. Stand by for imminent inflation fall.

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@asxcfdtrader Nice one. 🤛🏻

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@DaveTaylorNews Current market pricing (yesterday’s SYD close) is 27bps cuts by Feb 2024.

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@NCharepalli @DaveTaylorNews The markets doesn’t choose a random month. Futures market prices a gradually increasing likelihood each month. At the moment 25bp cut by Sept is 12%, by Nov is 40% and by Feb is in fact 108%, so more than “almost”.

[RatesPlus @djrb111]

@DaveTaylorNews Yep, he’s entitled to it. And is Koukoulos and my grandmother, but you don’t quote them ! As a credible journo, perhaps need to choose experts with a strong track record and credibility, not merely publicity seeking for their brand ?

[RatesPlus @djrb111]

@news_australian Google “Ben Fordham guilty of breaching Listening Devices Act”

[RatesPlus @djrb111]

@DaveTaylorNews Laughable. You shouldn’t quote this guy, seriously. When will he admit he was wrong about 3 hikes this year, then changed to two? Bad calls like this affect people. Of course there will not be any hikes now.

[RatesPlus @djrb111]

@DaveTaylorNews @_warrenhogan Why focus on the number of cuts ? It's the increase, not the NUMBER of increases.. We have gone from zero to 4.35 USA has gone from 0 to 5.35 .. We didn't go high enough, right ?