Dan Kenady

Investment Management

[Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 @C_Barraud]

🇺🇸 #SPX | Market Is Punishing Negative EPS Surprises More Than Average for Q1 - Factset
https://t.co/XtsVlR5YrK

[Barry Gilbert @gilbert3142]

In the 2020s, none of the more well-known diversifiers have "worked" (outperformed T-bills) more than half the time during S&P 500 drawdowns of more than 5%. Yes, cash has king, but it didn't get you much. Still, something is better than (less than) nothing. A variety of "diversifiers" have worked some of the time. Part of why it makes sense not to treat bonds as your sole diversifier.

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

If you are looking for good news, might want to close your 👀s on this one.

We are about to enter the (by far) worst quarter of the entire 4-year presidential cycle.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Crude Oil Futures started trading in 1983.

Last week's 36% spike was the biggest weekly percentage increase that we've ever seen.

[Citrini @citrini]

JUNE 2028.

The S&P is down 38% from its highs. Unemployment just printed 10.2%. Private credit is unraveling. Prime mortgages are cracking. AI didn’t disappoint. It exceeded every expectation.

What happened?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

https://t.co/JzzwCrbJgS

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Price changes over last year (January CPI report)
Gas Utilities: +9.8%
Electricity: +6.3%
Food away from home: +4.0%
Medical Care: +3.9%
Shelter: +3.0%
Overall CPI: +2.4%
Food at home: +2.1%
Transportation: +1.3%
New Cars: +0.4%
Used Cars: -2.0%
Fuel Oil: -4.2%
Gasoline: -7.5%

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

"The 60/40 portfolio is dead." - December 2022

2023 Total Return: +18.0%
2024 Total Return: +15.5%
2025 Total Return: +13.6%

[Peter Girnus 🦅 @gothburz]

Last quarter I rolled out Microsoft Copilot to 4,000 employees.

$30 per seat per month.

$1.4 million annually.

I called it "digital transformation."

The board loved that phrase.

They approved it in eleven minutes.

No one asked what it would actually do.

Including me.

I told everyone it would "10x productivity."

That's not a real number.

But it sounds like one.

HR asked how we'd measure the 10x.

I said we'd "leverage analytics dashboards."

They stopped asking.

Three months later I checked the usage reports.

47 people had opened it.

12 had used it more than once.

One of them was me.

I used it to summarize an email I could have read in 30 seconds.

It took 45 seconds.

Plus the time it took to fix the hallucinations.

But I called it a "pilot success."

Success means the pilot didn't visibly fail.

The CFO asked about ROI.

I showed him a graph.

The graph went up and to the right.

It measured "AI enablement."

I made that metric up.

He nodded approvingly.

We're "AI-enabled" now.

I don't know what that means.

But it's in our investor deck.

A senior developer asked why we didn't use Claude or ChatGPT.

I said we needed "enterprise-grade security."

He asked what that meant.

I said "compliance."

He asked which compliance.

I said "all of them."

He looked skeptical.

I scheduled him for a "career development conversation."

He stopped asking questions.

Microsoft sent a case study team.

They wanted to feature us as a success story.

I told them we "saved 40,000 hours."

I calculated that number by multiplying employees by a number I made up.

They didn't verify it.

They never do.

Now we're on Microsoft's website.

"Global enterprise achieves 40,000 hours of productivity gains with Copilot."

The CEO shared it on LinkedIn.

He got 3,000 likes.

He's never used Copilot.

None of the executives have.

We have an exemption.

"Strategic focus requires minimal digital distraction."

I wrote that policy.

The licenses renew next month.

I'm requesting an expansion.

5,000 more seats.

We haven't used the first 4,000.

But this time we'll "drive adoption."

Adoption means mandatory training.

Training means a 45-minute webinar no one watches.

But completion will be tracked.

Completion is a metric.

Metrics go in dashboards.

Dashboards go in board presentations.

Board presentations get me promoted.

I'll be SVP by Q3.

I still don't know what Copilot does.

But I know what it's for.

It's for showing we're "investing in AI."

Investment means spending.

Spending means commitment.

Commitment means we're serious about the future.

The future is whatever I say it is.

As long as the graph goes up and to the right.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Insurers will be this generation's "widows and orphans": private credit represents 35% of total US insurers' investments

[Peter Mallouk @PeterMallouk]

Start of 2025: ‘Why should I own anything outside of the U.S.?’
Ten months later: South Korea +74%, Vietnam +67%, Greece +64% … S&P 500 +14%.
The future is unknown. That’s why you diversify.

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

The AI boom/bubble now has the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) with the same eight largest stocks (table).

These two indices are merging into the same thing.

[The Wall Street Journal @WSJ]

Tech companies are pouring hundreds of billions into AI data centers, taking on heavy debt, but current revenue is relatively tiny https://t.co/rbxZq3ZiMR

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

Strike through look at changes to #FOMC statement

[Barchart @Barchart]

When the Fed cuts interest rates within 2% of stock market all-time highs, the S&P 500 has gone on to finish higher over the next 12 months 20 out of 20 times (100% hit rate) 🚨🚨🚨

[Brian Roemmele @BrianRoemmele]

The average price of electricity per Kilowatt-hour in the United States.

This is unsustainable.

[Brew Markets @brewmarkets]

September is historically the weakest month of the year for stocks.

[StockMarket.News @_Investinq]

🚨 The S&P 500 just broke a record not seen since the dot-com bubble.

Price-to-book ratio: 5.3×. That’s higher than 2000’s peak.

History says we’re playing with fire.

( a thread)

[Markets & Mayhem @Mayhem4Markets]

Wow. 95% of organizations investing in generative AI have little or nothing to show for it, per @MIT.

[FactSet @FactSet]

$SPX is reporting Y/Y earnings growth of 11.8% for Q2, which is above the estimate of 4.9% on June 30. #earnings, #earningsinsight, https://t.co/uLuu1MduKW

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The Ratio of US Large Caps to US Small Caps is at its highest level since the April 1999 peak, more than 3 standard deviations above the historical mean.

Video: https://t.co/dTvJfXHjr1