Drew Kinney

Asst Teaching Prof @MaxwellSU | PhD @MaxwellSU | Middle East, coups d’état, democratization, authoritarianism, MENA security

[Drew Kinney @drewhkinney]

I’m very pleased that my article, “Sharing Saddles: Oligarchs and Officers on Horseback,” is out at @ISQ_Jrnl https://t.co/3bJYcWRW6M

[Drew Kinney @drewhkinney]

That is only 3-4 ships per day on average. That isn’t a solution to the Hormuz crisis

[Guy Laron @guy_laron]

@Kpler @FT 4. Both readings of the data are right. Hormuz remains dramatically impaired. And yet ~70 commercial vessels moved in a single three-week stretch under covert US air cover. This is what the Trump admin has called Project Freedom. https://t.co/tdIzjDUSMq

[Drew Kinney @drewhkinney]

@TankerTrackers What does “a lot” mean? Do you have a number or a daily average?

[Vali Nasr @vali_nasr]

My piece in @FT on why Iran has been reluctant to sign on to the MoU agreement and why the agreement is not likely to easily lead to a larger deal in 30 or 60 days:

"The dominant view shared across the political spectrum in Tehran is that, given Trump’s record, the promise of diplomacy could actually raise the threat of war. Washington’s seemingly generous concessions are interpreted as too good to be true. Tehran suspects that the US seeks not a lasting peace but a free hand to keep Iran isolated and weak, checking its nuclear and missile activities by periodically “mowing the lawn”. Faced with such a prospect, deterrence is all that matters.

Iranian leaders talk of control of the Strait of Hormuz and maintaining Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium as the key to deterrence. They believe any durable deal that includes economic compensation for war damage and lasting sanctions relief would hinge on these two issues; the US is demanding that Iran concede on both. This makes striking a lasting deal highly unlikely."👇🏽

https://t.co/Po1LI2pyh6

[Drew Kinney @drewhkinney]

Refer to my last repost #IranWar‌

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

FARS NEWS: INFORMED SOURCES HAVE REJECTED TRUMP'S NEW CLAIMS ABOUT A POSSIBLE DEAL WITH IRAN, DESCRIBING HIS REMARKS AS 'A MIXTURE OF TRUTH AND LIES' AND AN ATTEMPT TO PORTRAY A FAKE VICTORY.

[Drew Kinney @drewhkinney]

This is not going to happen. #IranWar‌

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

Trump:

Iran must agree that they will never have a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb. The Hormuz Strait must be immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic, in both directions. All water mines (bombs), if any, will be terminated (we have removed, through detonation, numerous such mines with our great underwater mine sweepers. Iran will complete the immediate removal and/or detonation of any mines that are left, which will not be many!). Ships caught in the Strait due to our amazing and unprecedented Naval Blockade, which will now be lifted, may start the process of “heading home!”

Say HELLO to your wives, husbands, parents, and families from me, your favorite President! The enriched material, sometimes referred to as “Nuclear Dust,” which is buried deep underground with virtually collapsed mountains, caused by our powerful B2 Bomber attack 11 months ago, sitting on top of it, will be unearthed by the United States (which, it is agreed, is the only Country, along with China, with the mechanical capability of doing so!), in close coordination and conjunction with the Islamic Republic of Iran, plus the International Atomic Energy Agency, and DESTROYED. No money will be exchanged, until further notice. Other items, of far less importance, have been agreed to. I will be meeting now, in the Situation Room, to make a final determination. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

[Hadi Albahra @hadialbahra]

A Search for Ways Around Blocked Strait Leads to #Syria - The New York Times
The latest war in the Middle East has created new economic opportunities for Syria thanks to its geography.
 https://t.co/I51rHleE5F


[Drew Kinney @drewhkinney]

@StephenM Are you stumping for him?

[Drew Kinney @drewhkinney]

That seems short-sighted. Just today, on the heels of a similar announcement from Beijing, India publicly said the U.S. can pound salt. There’s a limit to U.S. power when Washington continues to choose coercion over cooperation. Sanctions regimes require continued cooperation & trust

[Drew Kinney @drewhkinney]

@BrettErickson28 @JoumannaTV @AlanEyre1 Can the US enforce those sanctions? If so, for how much longer?

[Drew Kinney @drewhkinney]

@BrettErickson28 @JoumannaTV @AlanEyre1 It looks to me they have done so, not “attempted” to do so. That can be reversed militarily or diplomatically, but will it?

[Drew Kinney @drewhkinney]

@BrettErickson28 @JoumannaTV @AlanEyre1 It looks to me they have done so, not “attempted” to do so. That can be reversed militarily or diplomatically, but will it?

[Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape]

The issue is NOT whether America remains militarily powerful

It obviously does

The issue is whether overwhelming military superiority still guarantees political control

That is the real lesson Beijing, Moscow, and America’s allies are now studying

[OilPrice.com @OilandEnergy]

Brent breaks above $111 on drone strikes, diplomatic failures, and fuel shortages... 🛢️🔺
https://t.co/DPYgVRfOM9

[Mehrzad Boroujerdi @M_Boroujerdi]

My interview with NPR's Weekend Edition. https://t.co/CKR2Gw2K7f

[Drew Kinney @drewhkinney]

@tpmedia @RossKneeDeep Hi Tom! The JCPOA was amazing. Definitely the greatest example of diplomatic success in my lifetime (1990-). Really amplifies how this war is the greatest strategic blunder in US history — and it’s really not close

[Drew Kinney @drewhkinney]

@HFI_Research A week*?

[Drew Kinney @drewhkinney]

@HFI_Research So actual loss is 6.37m/bd?

[The New York Times @nytimes]

Breaking News: An Iran-backed militia commander was arrested and charged with plotting to attack Jewish sites in the U.S., including one in New York. Prosecutors say he is a leader of Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi militia with ties to Iran. https://t.co/5FyiNgseXk

[Douglas Macgregor @DougAMacgregor]

CONFIRMED: Iran strikes U.S. intelligence targets in UAE.

[Drew Kinney @drewhkinney]

@HormuzLetter @tleilax___ Are they getting stopped outside the Gulf by the U.S. blockade?