Elliot Serbin

Student @Harvard_Law @Kennedy_School. Previously @StanfordCISAC, @Livermore_Lab, @NRCgov

[Kevin Jon Heller 🇺🇸🇩🇰 @kevinjonheller]

The US has offered its "legal justification" for killing drug traffickers on the high seas. I put that in scare quotes because the argument is incoherent -- self-defence against non-state actors based on the "unwilling or unable" test. How is this wrong? Let's count the ways.

[Rob Lee @RALee85]

Regarding the Pokrovsk front, "'I’ve never seen such speed [in a Russian advance],' the commander of a Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance unit fighting in the area told The Telegraph this week.

'It is very rapid. And our problem is the same: we don’t have infantry, we don’t have enough artillery or shells. We don’t have enough drones'...

'The situation is very complicated, and not in our favour. The most critical thing for us now is the large number of soldiers of the Russian Federation. They outnumber us I reckon by at least five to one.'”
@RolandOliphant and Inna Varenytsia
https://t.co/k1t5LZ4mwx

[Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists @BulletinAtomic]

Rodney Ewing, longtime Bulletin contributor and former Science and Security Board member, has passed away.

Bulletin nuclear affairs editor @francoisdm remembers his mentor and friend, whose contributions to science were "extraordinary."
https://t.co/2l95oJ1jZs

[Eliav Lieblich @eliavl]

1/ My two cents about the "plausibility of rights" debate in provisional measures: it makes no sense that the Court can order provisional measures on the basis of "rights" without any prospect of their violation.

[Hümeyra Pamuk @humeyra_pamuk]

SCOOP: I reviewed an internal State Dept memo, parts of which was classified, that included the most extensive and serious to date warnings to Secretary Blinken over Israel’s possible non-compliance with international humanitarian law. Here’s what I learned 1/X

[SC Procedure @SCProcedure]

Our book's pages on ICJ Namibia opinion:
ICJ "explicitly rejected" view that obligation of Member States under Art.25 to carry out SC decisions applied only to enforcement measures adopted under Ch.VII.
ICJ: "It is not possible to find in the Charter any support for this view."

[François Diaz-Maurin - @francoisdm.bsky.social @francoisdm]

Today, the @BulletinAtomic publishes its March magazine issue on nuclear weapon testing.

Why?

Moscow and Washington say they won't resume nuclear testing. But despite what officials say, some evidence could suggest otherwise. - 1/

https://t.co/8MxwSRQM1G

#nuclearweapons

[Barak Ravid @BarakRavid]

BREAKING: Blinken overturns “Pompeo Doctrine” and says Israeli settlements in the West Bank are “inconsistent with international law”. The move comes a day after Israel announces thousands of new housing units in the settlements

[Pavel Podvig @russianforces]

So, it appears (and confirmed by others) that it is indeed about OST violation, meaning it's a weapon in space. All what was said about the insanity of this is still valid. Can Russia have a program like this? Unfortunately, we cannot rule it out https://t.co/wJzv6dvMNn 1/

[CIJ_ICJ @CIJ_ICJ]

PRESS RELEASE: the #ICJ will deliver its Order on the request for the indication of provisional measures submitted by South Africa in the case #SouthAfrica v. #Israel this Friday, 26 January 2024, at 1 p.m. (The Hague). Watch live on @UNWebTV https://t.co/tikn2TSa8U

[Amnesty International @amnesty]

A new investigation by Amnesty International has found US-made Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM) were used by the Israeli military in two deadly, unlawful air strikes on homes full of civilians in the occupied Gaza Strip.

[Hans Kristensen (also on Bluesky) @nukestrat]

Gloomy interview with Russia’s Ryabkov. Says “there are no options…to continue or replace the [New] START Treaty” he acknowledges “was formally suspended by us.” Also says US won’t “win the next arms race” and Russia won’t get drawn into one (?). https://t.co/rGFE4Hgwx0

[Adil Haque @AdHaque110]

To be clear, IHL requires warning civilians of *otherwise lawful* attacks.

Telling civilians that you plan to carry out an attack that would be prohibited if they remain in place is not a warning.

It is a threat to unlawfully kill them.

[Itay Epshtain @EpshtainItay]

#Israel claims that 700K #Palestinians relocated to southern #Gaza. Three observations:
1. Palestinians have been forcibly transferred - in grave breach of #IHL - as they were not offered proper accommodation, assurances for their safety, and the right to return.

[(((James Acton))) @james_acton32]

I don't think a Russian test is imminent, partly for the reasons Pavel gives (I've revised my estimate of this in the last day or two). Unfortunately, I do think we will see a widespread return to testing within the next decade--quite possibly sooner rather than later.

[Pavel Podvig @russianforces]

Thanks to the @FAScientists team for putting together this excellent analysis of the Posture Commission report. https://t.co/fWL85VC8Lj

[Elena Chernenko @ElenaChernenko]

Volodin: "At next meeting of the State Duma Council, we will definitely discuss the de- ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. This corresponds to national interests of Russia. And it will be a mirror response of the US, who haven't yet ratified the CTBT" 2/2

[Pavel Podvig @russianforces]

A very good statement by CTBTO Executive Secretary @_RobFloyd - "It would be concerning and deeply unfortunate if any State Signatory were to reconsider its ratification of the CTBT" https://t.co/wt4sJ4Tjfk

[Elena Chernenko @ElenaChernenko]

What Vladimir Putin said about the resumption of nuclear tests and the fate of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty: "Experts say that with new weapons it is necessary to make sure the warhead will work without failures, and that (nuclear) tests should be carried out." 1\3

[Elena Chernenko @ElenaChernenko]

Vladimir Putin: Russia might consider de-ratifying the CTBT to "mirror" the actions of the US. (Just as I wrote a few weeks ago https://t.co/Odjag94pao)