Capital K Capital

business class ideas
economy execution

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

Jensen Huang can only have 33 more American affairs, or 13 Chinese affairs, before NVDA is worth negative dollars

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

Maybe both parties keep mistaking voter rejection of their opponents’ agenda for an endorsement of their own sweeping platform, when voters really just want a president who fixes the proverbial potholes.

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

@jukan05 “After making massive unrealistic adjustments, AI makes the same gross margin as software”

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

IBM died so that semis could live 🫡

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

$AMZN upside in Dec28 is so bid you could do a 1x2 on 200C/400C and be in profit between $227 and $570

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

Remove the only pressure we had on Iran and promise to lift all sanctions in a future deal, in exchange for what? It’s not a peace deal it’s a peace plea

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

I could do literally anything and it would not be more embarrassing than this peace deal

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

Am I reading this correct - 30bn of the 80bn $GOOGL capital raise is being used to cover taxes on equity compensation?

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

@Alpha_Ex_LLC Yeah, it’s much more informative to look at spreads in base vols that exclude earnings when doing short dated calendars

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

Looks like we’re in the decelerating growth era for AI capex

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

@orrdavid Come on, asserting that a quarter of the population is acting against their best interest in a massive way is a lazy thesis

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

To be sure, they’re still not reaching the institutional grade alpha bar that the twitter quants set. But if you can outperform the market over different regimes and a high number of trades by correctly riding beta + a couple other factors, go for it

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

My feed is full of kwant vs retail arguments and I’m sympathetic towards retail until I see my partners high school classmate hawking their Substack with a 90% win rate on *closed* trades selling far otm puts

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

They also don’t have to lose their life savings. Trading is a skill that can be developed. Smart ones will start by paper trading, analyzing their performance, then scaling in with real money when they show they can make +EV trades

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

The kwants can rip those people apart for all I care

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

I don’t get it, if AI compute demand is extreme and margins suck, why don’t they raise prices? Surely it’s not because customers are highly correlated with a commodity product and largely unprofitable?

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

The short NVDA long AVGO case strengthens

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

I’m long vol so I’ll make money on a big move either way, but it would have been really funny if it repeated last earnings faceplant again

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

$MRVL investors every earnings

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

I stand corrected