Capital K Capital

business class ideas
economy execution

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

$AMZN upside in Dec28 is so bid you could do a 1x2 on 200C/400C and be in profit between $227 and $570

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

Remove the only pressure we had on Iran and promise to lift all sanctions in a future deal, in exchange for what? It’s not a peace deal it’s a peace plea

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

I could do literally anything and it would not be more embarrassing than this peace deal

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

Am I reading this correct - 30bn of the 80bn $GOOGL capital raise is being used to cover taxes on equity compensation?

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

@Alpha_Ex_LLC Yeah, it’s much more informative to look at spreads in base vols that exclude earnings when doing short dated calendars

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

Looks like we’re in the decelerating growth era for AI capex

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

@orrdavid Come on, asserting that a quarter of the population is acting against their best interest in a massive way is a lazy thesis

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

To be sure, they’re still not reaching the institutional grade alpha bar that the twitter quants set. But if you can outperform the market over different regimes and a high number of trades by correctly riding beta + a couple other factors, go for it

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

My feed is full of kwant vs retail arguments and I’m sympathetic towards retail until I see my partners high school classmate hawking their Substack with a 90% win rate on *closed* trades selling far otm puts

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

They also don’t have to lose their life savings. Trading is a skill that can be developed. Smart ones will start by paper trading, analyzing their performance, then scaling in with real money when they show they can make +EV trades

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

The kwants can rip those people apart for all I care

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

I don’t get it, if AI compute demand is extreme and margins suck, why don’t they raise prices? Surely it’s not because customers are highly correlated with a commodity product and largely unprofitable?

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

The short NVDA long AVGO case strengthens

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

I’m long vol so I’ll make money on a big move either way, but it would have been really funny if it repeated last earnings faceplant again

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

$MRVL investors every earnings

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

I stand corrected

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

But what about Trust Poofs, when families gather to tell their children and grandchildren that they’re donating it all to charity, wired it to a scammer or had it all in $LULU?

[Gunjan Banerji @GunjanJS]

Some families this long weekend will gather to tell their children or grandchildren that they never, ever have to worry about money

Wealthy families are increasingly coordinating "trust reveals" to pass down $62 trillion+ of wealth in coming decades

My latest for @WSJmarkets, going inside the reveal:

https://t.co/NfzrBVmDse

[Capital K Capital @efficiencies_]

@0xMerridew Regime changes in stock valuation? High autocorrelation in returns?