elephant castle

Reading, Observing and Thinking without biases. A veteran practioner of Fixed income and Structral financing in China.

[elephant castle @elephantcastle0]

@qinbafrank 还有周四早上的韩国央行议息会议及新闻发布会，到时候还得看看新行长的对当前形势的表态。

[elephant castle @elephantcastle0]

@NullableX 我觉得高善文在全球化这个背景板下对于中国经济的研究之深，对增长动力的解释等方面的功底在卖方行业内属于佼佼者。但时代的变化不以人的意志为转移，或者说经济学、经济学家自身在范式变迁的背景板下的作用及影响力有限。

[elephant castle @elephantcastle0]

@Corsica267 结合Sintra年会上各国央行行长的共识，5个task force专家组人员任命及被本���货币政策报告，我的体会坐实了，即：“Bernanke-Yellen-Powell时代的落幕”，坚信AI带来AS曲线外扩能带来“金发姑娘”情形，选择退居幕后的古典清流式央行的回归。say goodbye to Philips curve，Taylor rule etc.

[elephant castle @elephantcastle0]

@freearkshaw 明白了，围绕“两用物项管控”受益者做文章。

[elephant castle @elephantcastle0]

@qinbafrank 股东给“压力”了，因为股东既要看到公司执行力提升，更要看到股价蹭蹭蹭上涨。

[elephant castle @elephantcastle0]

@zerohedge This is a typical heavy-capex trap of pioneers.

[elephant castle @elephantcastle0]

@RYANHINGSHING 必须是，有人当面子，就得有人当里子。

[elephant castle @elephantcastle0]

@Corsica267 明白了，往深了看，Warsh的政策意图是想通过缩小Fed在债券市场的足迹，从而客观上让bond vigilantes机制回归并发挥惩戒作用。

[elephant castle @elephantcastle0]

@LinQingV 中国大厂会很喜欢

[elephant castle @elephantcastle0]

@freearkshaw 所以云南锗业下面的鑫耀未来4-5年毛利率别指望了

[elephant castle @elephantcastle0]

@BruceCMaster current price reflects a highly discounted NPV of this forward position, heavily haircutted by a steep Discount for Lack of Marketability , Credit Valuation Adjustments tied to the parent's distress, and the anticipated pricing overhang from forced liquidation post-settlement.

[elephant castle @elephantcastle0]

@BruceCMaster Actually,The core valuation of SATS at present is fundamentally driven by an OTC non-standard long forward contract with a 1.5-year residual maturity, featuring an embedded fixed strike price of $212, and settled via non-cash, illiquid consideration (the spectrum asset).

[elephant castle @elephantcastle0]

@BruceCMaster Because this instrument is a linear forward rather than an option (Gamma = 0), SATS is fully exposed to bilateral directional risk, capturing complete upside leverage while remaining entirely unprotected against any downside decay of SPCX below $212 at expiration.

[elephant castle @elephantcastle0]

@Plutus_Billion 感谢商务部的两用物项出口管制。

[elephant castle @elephantcastle0]

@ShanghaoJin 哎，如果axti都无法delievery LnP衬底，那么其他高火耗做LnP和外延的岂不更惨？

[elephant castle @elephantcastle0]

@qinbafrank 战术上倒是可以等油价跌到80以下，然后交易补库逻辑。

[elephant castle @elephantcastle0]

@freearkshaw 2026确定性高的还得是光互联这一块

[elephant castle @elephantcastle0]

@LIWEI_TWCapital 这些基础知识，常学常新！

[elephant castle @elephantcastle0]

@ShanghaoJin @RYANHINGSHING @HarryXu920395 陆羽茶室呢？

[elephant castle @elephantcastle0]

@BabybusFL 大概率嘴硬身子软