Eric Earling

Politics, criminal justice reform, Seahawks. 💜 New Orleans. 🧘‍♂️🏊‍♂️🌱 Former GOP, now politically homeless. Comms & marketing pro. Opinions=mine

[Eric Earling @ericearling]

@BrentScher @Kalshi Which consistent with what I said in the 🧵 (& Zachary Donnini @ Vote Hub confirmed in a reply), ballots remaining to count went up today even as additional ballots were counted, because more ballots were received via USPS that were postmarked by Election Day.

[Zachary Donnini @ZacharyDonnini]

California late turnout is coming in high, as expected, since so many high propensity voters were holding their ballots. LA added about 60,000 ballots today, while San Francisco added about 20,000. These most likely arrived in the last day or so.

The SOS unprocessed-ballot page now shows 9.22 million processed or remaining ballots. Given the pace of new arrivals, we are holding pat on our turnout estimate at roughly 9.5 million (same as yesterday) and will update WinCast with the latest data in the next hour.

[Eric Earling @ericearling]

@BrentScher @Kalshi You’re missing a key factor in all this, which indicates a lack of understanding of how vote-by-mail election administration works: estimates of ballots remaining are determined by counties reporting what they have received … they can’t estimate what is still incoming via USPS

[Eric Earling @ericearling]

A note on ballots left to count that I’d love to hear @ZacharyDonnini, @ElliscbIV, @ASDem or others weigh in on: when counties say how many ballots they have/estimate have to count … that’s often based on what they have on hand, not what is still flowing through USPS. 🧵

[Eric Earling @ericearling]

@andrewjiang Urban vote-by-mail trends more left, not just D, after Election Day counts (see also, Seattle). And that’s before dynamics of the Gov race prompted partisan Dems to sit on their ballots & vote strategically at the end, + the D base being unhappy with establishment pols like Bass.

[Eric Earling @ericearling]

- then envelope is opened & ballot is removed from the security envelope
- then the ballot bar code is scanned to confirm its legit
- then the ballot is prepped for tabulation (confirmed no physical problems & flattened)

But these 🤡 keep thinking you fake all that

[Eric Earling @ericearling]

[sighs] Answers:
- yes, lots of people voted late, especially with the Gov race dynamics
- 700k were received via USPS by then but not yet fully processed & tabulated
- CA elections offices need more staffing to process this kind of volume tbh … very legit critique

[Laura Ingraham @IngrahamAngle]

VERY FISHY: We’re supposed to believe that 40 percent of the votes in LA county are still in the mail? How did they arrive at the 700,000 votes uncounted? Why didn’t they count more votes yesterday?

[Eric Earling @ericearling]

Related: still funny critics think drop boxes are a way to stuff fake ballots. Reality: whether received via mail or drop box, typical process is:
- the envelope bar code is scanned to confirm its legit
- voter signature on outside of envelope is verified to match to voter …

[Don't Put Me In A Box @KJ_Parker1]

California's excuse for their chaotic elections is that so many people in their state utilize mail-in voting and it takes a long time to count all of those ballots.

Ok, but here's a key difference between California and states like Iowa, Connecticut, or Florida:

California automatically mails ballots to every active registered voter. In states like Iowa, Connecticut, and Florida, you must request a mail/absentee ballot with strict verification steps in place.

In Iowa, Connecticut, and Florida, mail ballots must be received by Election Day in order to be counted. In California, ballots can arrive up to 7 days after Election Day and still be counted.

California also has tons of drop boxes at random places, available 24/7 without supervision. Other states like Iowa and Florida allow drop boxes only at election offices with limited hours so they can be supervised.

Most states require ID to vote. In California poll workers are prohibited from asking for an ID.

I'm an Independent. I just want fair elections. When politicians in California refuse to consider simple steps to improve efficiency and security, disingenuously screaming racism, you can see why people might question the integrity of their elections.

[Eric Earling @ericearling]

@aj_inapi Because those estimates only include ballots already received. In normal year that’s a lot since ballots can be post-marked by Election Day. This year even more so since Dems were sitting on ballots until late to see what to do in the Gov race. More ⬇️

[Eric Earling @ericearling]

A note on ballots left to count that I’d love to hear @ZacharyDonnini, @ElliscbIV, @ASDem or others weigh in on: when counties say how many ballots they have/estimate have to count … that’s often based on what they have on hand, not what is still flowing through USPS. 🧵

[Eric Earling @ericearling]

Really easy-to-understand summary of the steps taken to ensure a mail-in ballot is legit, matches the signature of the voter assigned the ballot, and is properly filled out before being ready for tabulation
⬇️⬇️⬇️

[Stephen Richer @stephen_richer]

Huge amount of mail ballots returned on Election Day.

Millions.

Election workers can't tabulate those immediately.

They must first scan the ballot envelope to make sure the voter hasn't already voter in person.

Then they have to assess the signature on the ballot envelope to make sure consistent with the voter's past signatures (to confirm identity).

Then they have to remove ballot from envelope, make sure it's not torn or otherwise damaged, and then flatten it.

Then they can tabulate it.

Then they have to adjudicate any stray pen marks, overvotes, or write-ins.

They they can report results.

And they have to document all of this.

Hope this helps!

Thx!

S

[Eric Earling @ericearling]

Validation ballots counted to date have, especially in big counties, been ballots received before Election Day as well as Election Day drop-offs. A huge swath of last minute mail ballots is still incoming via USPS/being processed before tabulation.

[Dj @DjsokeSpeaking]

Since Orange provides a breakdown of ballot type, you can end up getting a sense of the partisanship of vote type over time

Yesterday’s update was VBM received on/before eday and ballots dropped off at vote centers

[Eric Earling @ericearling]

A note on ballots left to count that I’d love to hear @ZacharyDonnini, @ElliscbIV, @ASDem or others weigh in on: when counties say how many ballots they have/estimate have to count … that’s often based on what they have on hand, not what is still flowing through USPS. 🧵

[Rob Pyers @rpyers]

JUST IN: Los Angeles County has processed ~1.4 million ballots and estimates it has around 713,180 ballots left to count.

[Eric Earling @ericearling]

Related: agree with this in the main

[Michael Trujillo @mikehtrujillo]

I don’t think Los Angeles or CA is ready for the number of late ballots currently in the pipeline. We will SURPASS 2022 turnout and go 10 points above that - (my estimate) there is a lot of election left boys and girls.

[Eric Earling @ericearling]

I remember being told my some on the right one reason to vote for Trump is the 250th would be a big wokefest under Kamala and Trump’s would be great.

[Sam Stein @samstein]

the 250th celebration will now officially be a Trump rally, he announces

[Eric Earling @ericearling]

@SeanTrende Sometimes people in Idaho outside of the Boise metro will refer to “the Great State of Ada” to jokingly or derisively refer to the weight Boise/Ada County have in the state. So, yeah …

[Eric Earling @ericearling]

@Lex_Jurgen @PatrickRuffini Has anything changed in the political environment or with the dynamics of the CA GOv + LA Mayor’s race compared the environment & particular race dynamics of 2024?

[Eric Earling @ericearling]

@TylerDinucci Gonna be great. Everyone will be totes normal about it. 😬

[Eric Earling @ericearling]

@williamjordann @ZacharyDonnini @ElliscbIV @ASDem Yep

[Zachary Donnini @ZacharyDonnini]

Thanks to larger-than-expected outstanding vote estimates from key counties, including Los Angeles, we increased our projected turnout in the California governor's race to 9.5 million votes.

More vote helps Steyer's path, although he still did not quite hit targets today.

[Eric Earling @ericearling]

@yashar Can only imagine what the group chats of former Biden staffers look like right now

[Eric Earling @ericearling]

@Timodc It’s deeply gross and irresponsible behavior. Question the prudence of a system to that takes so long to count (even compared to other VBM states)? Very, very fair. Strongly imply it’s corrupt or fraudulent when it manifestly is not. Despicable.

[Eric Earling @ericearling]

@ThirdWayKessler @AndrewBatesNC Man. This should open the floodgates. If this is how the Bidens are going to treat a famously loyal staffer who defended his principal so publicly when it got *very* hard to do so, other former staffers should just let it rip. And on the record.

[Eric Earling @ericearling]

@ZacharyDonnini @ElliscbIV @ASDem Thanks much. My guess is higher but obviously part of the variability is how efficient & timely USPS is right now … which, is even more of a variable than where these races might end up 😬

[Eric Earling @ericearling]

@jimgeraghty Does you back-of-the-envelope math account for the unknown but likely large number of ballots still in the USPS system and not yet reported by counties as ballots remaining to count?

[Michael Trujillo @mikehtrujillo]

I don’t think Los Angeles or CA is ready for the number of late ballots currently in the pipeline. We will SURPASS 2022 turnout and go 10 points above that - (my estimate) there is a lot of election left boys and girls.