Etherfeller

Life is short, go long to hedge.

[RedboxGlobal India @REDBOXINDIA]

MAN INFRA: THE NEXT CHAPTER BEGINS RUPEES 5,000+ CR COMBINED SALES TARGET OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS || FY27 LAUNCHES GDV RUPEES 6,700+ CR -INVESTOR PRESENTATION

[RedboxGlobal India @REDBOXINDIA]

SHARIKA ENTERPRISES: CO RECEIVES WORK ORDER UNDER UTTARAKHAND'S GANGA CORRIDOR RDSS SCHEME FOR SCADA, RTU, FRTU AND DISTRIBUTION AUTOMATION INFRASTRUCTURE

[Deepak Shenoy @deepakshenoy]

Smallcap results this far: 96/250 out, median PAT growth is 24.5%!
Interesting data from thewrap

[Josh Rosenthal, PhD 〰️ @JoshuaRosenthal]

@pmarca My wife's been running this prompt for the last 25 years

[Nakul Sarda @nakul_sarda]

I've stopped reading Gulf war headlines. Here's what I track instead.

We run an India-focused equity fund. 85% of India's crude comes from imports. Half of that normally passes through Hormuz. So yes — this crisis is personal.

But the information environment right now is garbage. Trump says the war ends tomorrow. Iran says Hormuz is shut forever. One analyst says $150 oil, another says $60. You can't build a portfolio view on this.

So I've narrowed it down to 4 signals. These are priced by people with real money on the line. They don't lie.

1. Ship insurance premiums through Hormuz

This is the single best signal. Lloyd's underwriters have billions at stake on every pricing call. Before the war, insuring a tanker through Hormuz cost 0.25% of the ship's value. Today it's 3.5–10% — and almost nobody is buying. A $100M tanker that cost $250K to insure now costs up to $10M. When this drops below 2%, the people with the most to lose are telling you it's getting safer. No press conference can replicate that.

2. How many ships are actually crossing

Every ship carries a GPS tracker (AIS). You can count exactly how many cross Hormuz each day. Before: 100+. Now: 8. That's a 92% collapse. You can't spin a ship being somewhere it isn't. Iran is letting some Chinese and Indian ships through, but it's a trickle. When this number crosses 30–40, trade is resuming. You can track this free on the WTO Hormuz Trade Tracker.

3. Paper oil vs real oil

This one most people miss entirely. Brent crude (the headline price) is at $112. But Dubai physical — what Asian buyers actually pay for delivered oil — is at $126. That's a $14 gap. It exists because Trump's comments keep pushing paper prices down. Traders call it jawboning. But the refiners buying cargo aren't getting any discount. If you're looking at Brent to assess India's oil bill, you're looking at the wrong number.

4. The mid-April cliff

Multiple emergency measures expire around the same time. The 400 million barrel SPR release runs dry ~April 15. The US waiver letting India buy Russian crude expires. Formosa Plastics has declared force majeure from April 1. Right now these stopgaps are keeping the supply gap at ~5 mb/d. Without them, BCA Research estimates it doubles to 10 mb/d — the largest crude disruption ever. If Hormuz doesn't reopen by mid-April, we're in uncharted territory.

Bottom line: track the insurance premium, the ship count, the paper-physical spread, and the April timeline. Everything else is noise.

[Kiran Rajput @_KiranRajput]

An Overview of Tembo Global.
they are positioning themselves as a "mini-L&T."🙂
Disc: Researching & added small qtys.

[Sam Altman @sama]

Today we are launching my favorite feature of ChatGPT so far, called Pulse. It is initially available to Pro subscribers.

Pulse works for you overnight, and keeps thinking about your interests, your connected data, your recent chats, and more. Every morning, you get a custom-generated set of stuff you might be interested in.

It performs super well if you tell ChatGPT more about what's important to you. In regular chat, you could mention “I’d like to go visit Bora Bora someday” or “My kid is 6 months old and I’m interested in developmental milestones” and in the future you might get useful updates.

Think of treating ChatGPT like a super-competent personal assistant: sometimes you ask for things you need in the moment, but if you share general preferences, it will do a good job for you proactively.

This also points to what I believe is the future of ChatGPT: a shift from being all reactive to being significantly proactive, and extremely personalized.

This is an early look, and right now only available to Pro subscribers. We will work hard to improve the quality over time and to find a way to bring it to Plus subscribers too.

Huge congrats to @ChristinaHartW, @_samirism, and the team for building this.

[Andrew Kang @Rewkang]

The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient

[Kirubakaran Rajendran @kirubaakaran]

What if I told you that Jane Street made ₹36,500 crores from Indian markets in just 2 years, and ₹4,800 crores of that was allegedly through market manipulation? They turned India's stock market into their personal ATM using a strategy so clever. Here's the complete details 🧵

[Flood @ThinkingUSD]

Assistance Fund address: 0xfefefefefefefefefefefefefefefefefefefefe has now bought back over $1,000,000,000 netting an unrealized gain of +$680,000,000.

Is this the largest onchain buyback and support bid we've ever seen outside of Saylor for a crypto asset?

[Ansem @blknoiz06]

Robinhood vs. Hyperliquid is gonna be primetime television next five years or so

one needs to figure out crypto perps

one needs to figure out stocks + options

[Ansem @blknoiz06]

all in spot $HYPE & chill

[Daan Crypto Trades @DaanCrypto]

$BTC This chart is the easiest way to view things in my opinion.

Price swept the range high and made a marginally higher all time high. Since then, price rejected and is back within the larger ~$90K-$108K range but is retesting it yet again.

Anything below $90K is a no go for the higher timeframe and would be out of line with previous consolidations this cycle.

If price breaks back above the range with some decent volume and holds, that'd set it up for a proper breakout and price discovery phase.

Until then, this is probably not a place where most people want to chop themselves up.

[MJ @peach_1340]

$SYRUP Update:

> Clearly remains one of the strongest performing coins in this market
> Fundas continue pushing. This past wk alone:
(1) AUM at new ATH, now above $2bn
(2) Achieved first 7 fig revenue month in May
(3) Within just 24hrs of the launch on Solana, 35m+ syrupUSDC was in circulation
> This range likely breaks to the upside on the next (5th) tap of the 0.46/0.47c area, granting price discovery (again)

[Daan Crypto Trades @DaanCrypto]

$BTC One of the better "indicators" this cycle are ETF flows to determine strength or weakness at local tops or bottoms.

Generally, when we see big inflows after a big run, but price is refusing to move up further, we tend to make a local top.

The opposite is true when we see big outflows after a large correction and price is not dropping further on those outflows.

In both cases this means that there's a lot of absorption going on and there's participants using these ETF flows to fill only for price to reverse when the buying pauses.

So yes, ETF flows can be good for momentum, but also be on the look out for price actually following through.

tl;dr
Big inflows and no price continuation up = Bearish
Big outflows and no continuation down = Bullish

[Atalantis7 @atalantis7]

BTC: we've made an ATH on a 1D, 3D, 1W closing basis as we tagged 107k fueled by Metaplanet's 100M and MSTR routine weekend buys. Momentum+technicals still look 👌and the spot book is back to a bid skew in 2.5%/5% range so I'm hopeful we make another attempt at ATH by end May

[Atalantis7 @atalantis7]

SPX: down -1.4% since Moody's downgrade (exactly the same % as when Fitch downgraded in Aug'23). based on GEX profile i expect chop between 5850 and 5910 today. No VOL expansion until Vixpiration on Wed AM imo

[VolSignals @VolSignals]

Market Makers don't manipulate price—
we're trapped by our own hedging requirements.

When SPX drifts between long and short strikes, our systems start buying and selling futures in ways that create predictable paths.

(short thread)

[db @tier10k]

*US TO CUT TARIFFS ON CHINESE GOODS TO 30% FROM 145% FOR 90 DAYS

*CHINA TO LOWER TARIFFS ON US GOODS TO 10% FROM 125% FOR 90 DAYS

[Atalantis7 @atalantis7]

BTC - while we're up +35% since April lows, we have a lot of positive catalysts for more upside over next 2-3 weeks into Vixpiration. Short term, we may be due for some correction or chop - large OPEX tomorrow, upside liquidity 98-100k swept and perp driven rally with fresh OI