Qwen 4 is coming Now & Beats GPT-6, Fable 5.
- 27B variants land first.
- leak say the first samples are already approaching Astra/Opus 5.5-level quality.
- and Alibaba confirmed Qwen 4 will heavily use RSI (Recursive Self-Improvement) week ago.
- across the entire lineup Max, Plus, Flash, and 27B.
- Target window: today or tomorrow may-be
- Open-source in November gets very interesting, after long time silent.
- The gap is closing,
A San Francisco startup says it just turned mercury into real gold, and their own math says gold is one of the cheapest things their machine can make. Aim it at a different metal and it makes a cancer drug ingredient worth tens of billions of dollars a gram.
Here's how it works. When you fuse two kinds of hydrogen, deuterium and tritium, every single reaction kicks out a neutron moving at 14.1 MeV, which is absurdly fast. Fire one into mercury-198 and it knocks another neutron loose on the way through, so two come out and you're left with mercury-197. Give that a few days and it decays into gold-197, the only stable kind of gold there is. The whole trick needs neutrons above about 6 MeV, and regular nuclear reactors barely make those, while fusion makes one every time it fires.
Now swap the mercury for radium-226. Same reaction, one neutron in and two out, and you end up with radium-225, which decays into actinium-225. Novartis is building its next prostate cancer drug around actinium-225, and it's so scarce it sells by the millicurie, roughly $1,200 to $2,500 apiece. Price it by the gram and you're into the tens of billions of dollars, for a material so radioactive nobody could safely hold a gram of it anyway.
Marathon's team actually put a dollar value on a single fusion neutron in a paper this year. Use it to make electricity and it's worth about $3 × 10⁻²⁰. Gold comes in at $2.6 × 10⁻²⁰, basically a wash. Molybdenum-99, which goes into about 80% of nuclear medicine scans, is worth $2.6 × 10⁻¹⁷ a neutron. Actinium-225 is worth about $10⁻¹⁰, around 3 billion times what the electricity's worth.
That's why fusion people should care. Every fusion company you've heard of is chasing electricity, and selling electricity only pays once the plasma puts out something like 10 to 22 times the energy you pump in to heat it. The best result so far, at JET in England, was about a third. Add gold on the side and Marathon's math says you break even around 3x. For molybdenum-99, the number is 0.001x.
So a machine that gives back one-thousandth of the energy you feed it can still make money, as long as the neutrons hit the right metal.
By their numbers, a 3 megawatt machine running way below breakeven could cover the whole world's supply of molybdenum-99, which today comes from splitting uranium in a handful of research reactors. Today's experimental fusion machines already beat the gain that job needs.
Their second post basically says this out loud. Marathon now describes itself as an isotope company for radiopharma. Their chart shows roughly 390 targeted radiotherapy trials. Pluvicto, the prostate cancer drug Novartis launched at $42,500 a dose, did $1.9 billion in sales last year.
Gold still matters to them, just later. It's about a $700 billion a year market, and Marathon's paper figures it could soak up around 2 terawatts of fusion capacity, which is roughly the scale where fusion actually moves the grid. So the plan is to sell cancer isotopes out of small machines now and use gold to pay for the giant ones, years before electricity can pay for itself.
@10_X_eng Left it earlier this year for arch, no regrets. Had to jump on one of my windows pcs for some work recently, started updating while my agents were running. Hate it
@thomasbrushdev Allow paid modding of their games, provide the distribution to the modders. Now everyone shares in the revenue, the original creators take a cut. Distribution is the real product now
@GRoditiD I have a large collection of repos, fully indexed, smart coding harness, often keeps the architect sgent context below 100k and the builder agents 30k or so. I could spend 200 dollars in 1 day easy
"Mathematicians did not ask for this work to be done" might become one of the historical quotes from this era, perfectly depicting the downfall of academia