Bricks & Bogle

Passive investing e inmobiliario en el sur de España, liberalismo, música y deporte, estamos aquí para aprender🧘🏻‍♂️

[Bricks & Bogle @ffire2035]

Acabo de pasar el 25% de mi cartera desde govies/corporativos al iShares € Govt Bond 20yr Target Duration UCITS ETF EUR.

El tiempo dirá si fue una cagada máxima o si se comporta como el hedge que espero. Todo apunta a estanflación, pero la IA o una crisis lo pueden hacer bueno.

[Lee Roach @leevalueroach]

In a hyperinflationary environment, the single most important financial decision you can make, and the one almost nobody who lives through one is psychologically prepared to make, is to maximize fixed-rate, long-duration debt against productive assets, because the entire mechanism of hyperinflation is a wealth transfer from creditors to debtors, and the only question that matters, in the moment it begins, is which side of that transfer you have positioned yourself on.

The math is brutal in its simplicity. If you owe a bank $400,000 at a 30-year fixed rate of 6%, and the currency loses 90% of its purchasing power over five years, you are, in real terms, paying back the bank in lottery tickets. The house you bought with that loan retains its real value, because it is a physical asset that the inflation cannot touch. The bank, which lent you future dollars and is now receiving past dollars, takes the loss. You take the gain. The transfer happens silently, invisibly, on the loan amortization schedule, every single month, while the people around you who saved in cash, held bonds, or refused on principle to take on debt watch their lifetime savings evaporate in real time.

The Weimar industrialists who emerged from 1923 with their fortunes intact, and in many cases multiplied, were not the ones who hoarded gold or moved their assets to Switzerland. They were the ones who borrowed aggressively, in the local currency, at fixed rates, against factories and farms and apartment buildings, and let the inflation pay off the debt while they collected rents and revenues that repriced upward with the currency. The same pattern played out in Hungary in 1946, in Argentina in the 1980s, in Zimbabwe in 2008, and in every other major inflation event of the modern era. The borrowers won. The savers lost. The people in the middle, who tried to be cautious and hold cash and wait for clarity, were the ones whose lives were quietly destroyed.

The reason almost nobody acts on this knowledge in advance is that the human brain treats debt as danger, and treats saving as safety, and these instincts are correct in stable monetary environments and exactly inverted in unstable ones. The middle class, which has been trained for generations to fear debt, is structurally the worst-positioned group when the currency starts to fail. The wealthy, who use leverage as a tool, and who hold the productive assets that the leverage was used to acquire, are structurally the best-positioned. The asymmetry is not an accident. It is the entire mechanism by which monetary debasement transfers wealth from one class to another, every time it has happened, in every country it has happened in, for as long as currencies have existed.

You do not need to predict the timing. You need to structure your balance sheet, in the years before the event, in a way that benefits if it arrives. Fixed rate, long duration, productive assets. The trade has worked for 400 years. It will work for the next 400. Almost nobody will run it, because almost nobody is willing to be the person who took on debt while everyone they know was paying theirs down, which is, as it has always been, the entire reason the people who do run it end up owning everything on the other side.

[Bricks & Bogle @ffire2035]

@thealepalombo Vengo de vacaciones en el Alto Adige y suscribo lo que dice Alessandro, que maravilla de lugar, comida, gente. Massively underrated

[joan tubau @joantubau]

La edad de oro de la seguridad
Kapital. 06.09.25

[Bricks & Bogle @ffire2035]

Hace dos meses todo en twitter era sobre lo barato que sigue el inmobiliario en España comparado con otros países y el potencial de Madrid, entre otras.

Hoy todo son tweets de burbuja a punto de estallar y precios insostenibles.

Qué ha pasado?

[Cándido @Averigue1983]

“Cuanto más inculta es una persona, más dinero necesita para pasar los fines de semana” (Fernando Savater)

[Bricks & Bogle @ffire2035]

@RyanHoliday L’evangelio

[Bricks & Bogle @ffire2035]

@leadlagreport It’ll break if they do

[Bricks & Bogle @ffire2035]

@alejandrocampo @elEconomistaes Podremos deducirlos en nuestros modelos 210 para 2025?Gracias Alejandro por todo lo que haces en este tema.

[Peter Mallouk @PeterMallouk]

2% inflation is a myth, or worse, a lie. Anyone living in the real world over the past five years knows that.

[Bricks & Bogle @ffire2035]

@Arteymas_ Gofio’s Creed

[Bricks & Bogle @ffire2035]

@joantubau Ladrillo con deuda a tipo por debajo de la inflación, el mejor refugio a largo plazo

[Bricks & Bogle @ffire2035]

@alex_finanzas También aplica a la deuda a tipo fijo por debajo del 3% 😉

[Ryan Holiday @RyanHoliday]

Not a lot of people understand this... but you actually don’t have to have an opinion about everything. You don’t have to decide if something is good or bad. Marcus Aurelius says limiting the amount of opinions we have is one of the most powerful things we can do in life.

[Bricks & Bogle @ffire2035]

@Ben_L_Willard Todo problemas hasta que llega el alemán y te ofrece 300k por tu piso de 70m2 en Atlanterra

[A @AOSpeaks_]

What you do in private, shows in public. Reading shows in a conversation. Your diet shows in energy. Your discipline shows in confidence. Your focus shows in your results. You are what you cultivate when no one is watching. Prioritize your time & focus on discipline/consistency.

[soros triplehijueputa @soroshijueputa2]

Totalmente cierto

[Compounding Quality @QCompounding]

15 investing visuals every millionaire knows

1. Returns on stocks, bonds and Bills

Source: Stocks for the Long Run by Jeremy Siegel

[Bricks & Bogle @ffire2035]

@BAtipico A los 50 debes tener todo preparado para poder tirar sin un sueldo mensual, el riesgo de ser reemplazado es exponencial desde entonces, sobre todo si no has llegado a posiciones de alto directivo y tienes sueldo alto.

[Navalism @NavalismHQ]

"A fit body, a calm mind, a house full of love. These things cannot be bought - they must be earned."

@naval