Higher #immigration of non-EU citizens into the #EU, driven largely by refugees from #Ukraine, could have a positive effect of potential output in the range of 0.2-0.7% by 2030.
@fgcaselli, A Gloe Dizioli & F Toscani @IMFinEurope
https://t.co/fxGoKCgBz8
🧵1/5 Immigration into the EU reached a historical high of about 6.5 million following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. New IMF research discusses the macroeconomic implications of this immigration increase for EU and euro area countries: https://t.co/QYzfBH0O2x
My paper on cross-country evidence on she-cession with amazing co-authors @johnbluedorn@njharbo@fgcaselli@tavares_mm is now accepted at Labour Economics. https://t.co/3wXyU7VM5y. It was a very time-sensitive paper when first posted as IMFWKP, and I'm happy with the outcome.
Changing jobs can impact earnings. Data from across Europe finds that younger workers experience an increase in earnings, while low-skilled, older workers see earnings losses.
@johnbluedorn, @fgcaselli, N-J Hansen, @tavares_mm, @ShibataEcon@IMFNews
https://t.co/f272Z04Xbo
Nice evidence on the benefits of repaying sovereign debt—quite relevant in the current juncture. Paper by Matilde Faralli @ImperialBiz@fgcaselli@upanizza & @pmanasse
The Value of Building a Reputation for Repaying Debts: Overstated?
@MatildeFaralli@pmanasse and I talk with Mark and Mitu about our paper (joint with @fgcaselli ) on the benefits of repaying
@CFD_IHEID
1/2
https://t.co/ZVMwujOZ5Z
The IMF projects headline inflation in emerging market and developing economies to decline to about 4% in 2022, but risks of a pickup remain. https://t.co/bhPVZ77g3H #WEO
New @IMFNews research on 'Inflation Scares' is out. It digs into supply & demand forces driving inflation, emphasizes the varying country experiences (which is being lost in discussions these days), projects that inflation is expected to moderate next year but with upside risks.
On the Benefits of Repaying
New paper with @fgcaselli@MatildeFaralli & @pmanasse
We read old stuff about🇨🇴 in the 1980s and did some fancy econometrics.
It was fun!
Will try to do a 🧵during the weekend, but the paper is here:
https://t.co/Mor8j6v0by
New: "Expectations' anchoring and inflation persistence" by Rudolfs Bems, @fgcaselli, Francesco @Grigoli82, @BertrandGruss (@IMFNews). Cross-country comparisons of how inflation responds to terms-of-trade shocks. This article shows anchoring matters. https://t.co/PPJUxFy5oZ 1/4
.@fgcaselli@IMFNews & @timsvengali talk #pandemics & #shecessions: in two-thirds of the countries studied women’s employment rates declined more than men’s, but these differences were short-lived & strongly correlated to specific sectors of the economy
https://t.co/rAZyUykgwU
New @voxeu column out about the heterogeneity of #Shecession around the world.
“In 2/3 of countries women’s unemployment rate declines more than men’s, but the difference was short-lived.”
@ShibataEcon@johnbluedorn@fgcaselli@njharbo
https://t.co/NIea6SRqGZ
Data from 38 countries shows that over half to two-thirds exhibited #COVID19 'she-cessions', with women’s unemployment rising disproportionately more than that of men: https://t.co/4ElGCbJfF4
@johnbluedorn, @fgcaselli, Niels-Jakob Hansen, @ShibataEcon, & @tavares_mm (@IMFNews)
Join us tomorrow for a discussion about the impact of #COVID19 on the labor market and how policies can support workers.
@johnbluedorn@ShibataEcon@fgcaselli @JMondragonECON