Filippo Garbarino

Chief Investment Officer, Investor, Lifelong Learner ---- I use Twitter as a journal for my thoughts on investing ---- not investment advice

[Filippo Garbarino @filippogarba]

@PythiaR Yes. Key issue in those three names is that what was perceived as "quality" wasn't quality after all

[Filippo Garbarino @filippogarba]

@marc_slans Don’t worry you’re not alone

[Filippo Garbarino @filippogarba]

@robin_j_brooks This a testament to how much sentiment and positioning matter. Being contrarian at extremes is difficult but pays off very well

[Filippo Garbarino @filippogarba]

@zerohedge Being a capex receiver $MU is better than being a capex spender $MSFT . However, the price decoupling has a ceiling as if ROIC disappoints, the spender will stop spending. Something's gotta give here

[Filippo Garbarino @filippogarba]

@TSOH_Investing Stunning chart but the market is forward looking and is telling us that the future for $MSFT will not be like the past. Hope market is wrong as I am long $MSFT and $AMZN

[Filippo Garbarino @filippogarba]

@Proctooor I think the hyperscalers will have to blink on capex slowdown. The market will force this

[Filippo Garbarino @filippogarba]

Being a capex receiver $MU is better than being a capex spender $MSFT . However, the price decoupling has a ceiling as if ROIC disappoints, the spender will stop spending. Something's gotta give here

[Filippo Garbarino @filippogarba]

@CapexAndChill Not alone. I sold $AMAT August last year, probably worse

[Filippo Garbarino @filippogarba]

@JerryCap Stunning move for a 3trn company

[Filippo Garbarino @filippogarba]

@ThierryBorgeat I agree 100%. Have been long $TDG since 2013, $HEI since 2020 and more recently $GE. This industry has created and will continue to create generational wealth for decades

[Filippo Garbarino @filippogarba]

@sidecarcap Great. Think $TDG, $HEI and Henry Singleton should be studied as well

[Filippo Garbarino @filippogarba]

@RodriGo_ethe Market is trying to force $MSFT and $AMZN to pivot on data center capex

[Filippo Garbarino @filippogarba]

@RihardJarc I respect the price action but I think a lot of bad news are priced in here

[Filippo Garbarino @filippogarba]

@F_Compounders With the right attitude, its easier than most people think. Permanent dollar cost averaging in equities with low (or no) leverage and let compounding magic kick in

[Filippo Garbarino @filippogarba]

@NicolaiTang1 @TheEconomist Best podcast. Sharp questions, great guests and right length

[Filippo Garbarino @filippogarba]

@moats_multiples @SouthernValue95 I believe that $MSFT's incumbency will hold, even in the AI era. Also, over the years $MSFT has shown more financial discipline than $GOOGL (and $META). It will pay dividends eventually

[Filippo Garbarino @filippogarba]

After observing capital deployment strategies for 15 yrs I have concluded that the best risk/reward is buying great businesses cannibalising their share count $HLT $ORLY. Second best: great businesses with bolt on M&A $TDG $HEI. Avoid transformational M&A at all cost $SPGI $BRO

[Filippo Garbarino @filippogarba]

@qualtrim The problem is when there is a disconnect between current price action (forward looking) and current earnings (lagging indicator). If earnings have risen but price has lagged, that could be indication of future earnings erosion. Hope its not the case with $MSFT as I am long