Fil

Technical Analysis is 👑 😈 Milan🇮🇹

[Fil @fill0r4]

@TradersConf This only works with prop firms due to the convex payout structure

[Fil @fill0r4]

@TraderStatham Se cerchi la speculazione di brevissimo sono d'accordo che non sia il progetto più appealing nel settore rwa ma in termini di creazione reale di qualcosa sono gli unici o quasi che lavorano

[Fil @fill0r4]

@Albert_618 @PlanZ_Crypto mmm ok so you basically watch every "hour tf" (1h, 2h, 3h, 4h, 6h, 8h etc) for how many confluences you can

[Fil @fill0r4]

@materagian ciao, can I dm you?

[Albert @Albert_618]

Be Careful Who You Listen To

I often listened to the wrong people. I couldn't understand why I was stuck, while others told me "That's how it works".

What I didn't realize - I listened either to people who were stuck too or to people who wanted me to stay stuck.

When I started my business and quit my job some time ago a lot of people tried to tell me it wasn't the right way to do it.

When I dropped out, they tried to tell me how I should handle it. While they went to their jobs for a bad salary, unhappy with their being and trapped in the employee life and mindset.

In the beginning it was an issue and affected me, cause I wasn't confident in my plan and felt fear.

I lacked conviction.

The voices were loud. I listened to some and made wrong decisions. Until I cut them. All.

I kept pushing, I struggled but the outcome was good. The business began to make cash. The clients were happy.

After discovering Taur, my mindset became stronger and I started trading. I inhaled the knowledge, read the books, his posts, improved everyday and knew I had no limits.

Still people came to me trying to convince me how to do or not do it. I didn't listen anymore. Why should I?

Family members said it's too risky.
People told me how to invest in what and why random stock XYZ is a good investment (while not earning a single $ in market). But they all had an opinion...

Lot of noise came up. I cut it again. I learned from the past. I just told them - follow him on Twitter or leave me alone. Subtracted.

The outcome?

I became profitable. I improved even more and make a living from it. The proof is there and they can see it.

Some of the people can't believe it and still try to tell me what would be better. Some love what I do and respect it and I'm very grateful for them.

The learning is very clear. To make an example, and as you know I love to compare combat sports with trading:

Let's say you want to become a boxer cause your dream is that the referee is puling your hand in the air after the fight (the feeling is great btw) what should you do?

You research the gyms. You research the trainers and their boxing record. There are some who didn't even had a single fight and then there are some with a record of 50+ fights. Some work in gyms without champs some in a gym with champs.

Where do you go? Who do you listen to?

This decision can make the difference between destroying your dream and living it.

Even in the gym - and I made the experience - there are people that tell you how it should be done. I experienced it. There were guys who didn't had a single fight, and trained for years, that tried to tell me how it works and what I should do.

They told me I need a minimum of 1 year training and whatever till I can even think about a fight.

After 6 months - I won the first tournament.

Be careful who you listen to.

[Fil @fill0r4]

@IamZeroIka minchia tutte le ore che passi su tradingview e non hai manco il nome al layout🫣

[ZERO IKA 🗡️ @IamZeroIka]

Usually, before BTC dumps, the market doesn’t panic but goes into "align mode".

Price may look "stable", sentiment may tilt bullish, but beneath the surface, the architecture is already shifting.

One of the most telling signals comes in the form of isolated altcoin rallies.

Seemingly spontaneous, fundamentally unjustified moves with illiquid tokens ripping 100%+ while BTC chops sideways.

To the untrained eye, it looks like early altseason or a hidden gem finally getting its due but in reality, these rallies are manufactured.

They are localized liquidity events: short-term, high-intensity demand spikes engineered to serve a specific purpose: distribution.

When smart money position for a downturn, they know that exiting size through BTC can trigger slippage, spread widening, and signal panic to the overall market so instead, they rotate capital into thin altcoin markets where they can construct liquidity "windows" with precision.

Through weeks of quiet accumulation, they corner the supply.

I don't have to tell you that these tokens are chosen not for their fundamentals, but for their manipulability because they have tight order books, small communities and minimal oversight.

Once the position is built, demand is synthetically injected: exchange listings timed with press releases, Twitter hype, influencer callouts and bot-driven engagement. (Check LunarCrush)

Each piece is part of a short-term narrative scaffolded just long enough to justify a rapid price expansion.

Thin liquidity means price can be walked up with relatively small capital, and once it starts moving, the retail reflex kicks in.

Volume pours in, volatility spikes, and the bid side increases offering the liquidity that didn’t exist during accumulation.

That’s when the handoff occurs, capital extraction.

The timing is never random.

These events often cluster before significant BTC volatility and the surge of these random altcoins occur not because something is starting, but usually because something is ending.

Then BTC breaks.

Once the major leg down begins, those same alts retrace violently, liquidity disappears and retail is left exposed, holding assets that were never meant to be held but only used.

What looked like opportunity was just microstructure in motion, a constructed liquidity trap deployed before broader market contraction.

This is how smart money exit, not through panic selling, but through engineered relief rallies in the corners of the market no one is watching closely enough.

So when altcoins start to explode without reason while BTC is flat and wicking through HTF supply areas, zoom out.

It's usually a warning sign.

[Fil @fill0r4]

@DavidRagnarr @IamZeroIka @eliz883 Study options market theory

[MaxO @_MaxO22_]

The roaring 20s:

Prologue:

In this analysis i will dive deep into the parallels between the roaring 20s and our current decade. As trader you should always train your ability to predict the future, as it’s the quality that lets you play ahead of everybody else. My (unknowing)mentor @Moneytaur_ recommended to study the roaring 20s and that’s what i did. A lot of similarities can be found if one is looking close enough.

1900s-1910s:

The Panic of 1907 occurred as a mix of outer circumstances ensured that a lot of people wanted to withdraw their money from the banks, which pushed them into a liquidity crisis. The panic among investors and customers who tried to withdraw their money, which banks didn’t had created even more panic. They advised their employees to work especially slow so that they would win time. J.P Morgan stepped in as big hero of the American economy. His selfless actions helped him to strengthen his power deep into all parts of the American system.

Before the glorious 20s began there were a lot of unhappy times, which people had to went trough. WW1 and the Spanish flu to call the worst. In the 1910s the Ford Model T was first build with an assembly line and made Henry Ford to one of the richest persons alive. The titanic was build and went bust. The great migration started. John D. Rockefeller became the world first US billionaire. Movies started to become a thing and right at the end of the decade the prohibition act has been passed, which led to an outrageous party scene in the 20s.

WW1:

The United States are rich in natural resources, which it used to trade with European countries to help the war effort. The need for resources was huge, and the country made significant money from trading overseas. This greatly helped manufacturing, production and efficiency in American industry, and the nation emerged as the world’s industrial leader. With efficient industries, more workers needed for factories and the development of new technology, America’s economy really began to boom.

The Spanish flu:

The earliest case was was documented 1918 in Kansas US. The name Spanish flu came from false newspaper documentations of early outbreaks in Spain, which led to the false name. Public health management led to social distancing, wearing face masks in public and the ban of mass gatherings and general restrictions of freedom.

2000s-2010s:

Several big shock waves went around the world in the early 2000s with 9/11, the middle east war and the great recession of 2008.

The Iran/middle east war raged into the early 10s, with ISIS rising afterwards, which led to an enormous amount of people migrating into the north-western hemisphere. The russo-ukrainian war started 2014. The Tesla model S was first introduced and helped Elon Musk to become the richest person alive in the early 2020s. The internet and social media took off in the 2010s.

Covid started like the Spanish flu at the end of the decade. Public health management led to social distancing, wearing face masks in public, the ban of mass gatherings and general restrictions of freedom.

Society:

The 1920s society:

The 1920s were a decade of flourishing economy. For the people back then it felt like everything is possible. It was a decade of inventions and progress. Electricity was spread out all over the US and with it a lot of new household machines, which provided the owner of such a lot more free time, which they could spend on going out and having fun. The movie industry as we know it today found its root in this decade. Women got finally the right to vote. The cities became the place to be and people literally flooded them. Nobody wanted to be a farmer anymore, as the big machines made it harder and harder for farmers to get by and the lifestyle of a city man was a lot more attracting. Through the prohibition a black market and underground-scene for alcohol has risen in the shadows. Big gangs formed to make and sell alcohol. Underground jazz clubs were the social centre in the cities. A lot of people were addicted to all kind of pharmacy products such as cocaine, heroine and morphium. Especially a lot of the richer folks enjoyed these substances regularly as they were prescript for for all kind of issues, such as cough, headache and sniff. People loved to consume any kind of goods in that era. They bought everything they could and with the invention of the loan for everyone, nobody had to pay instantly. At the end of the decade nearly every American collected a huge amount of debts and probably too many things in their home. This over consumption and spending led in the end to the great depression of the 1930s.

Immigration laws and restrictions had made life very difficult for immigrants in America. Moving to America didn’t end up being what it seemed it would be, with immigrants having to live in crowded conditions and face discrimination from others.

The 2020s society:

The current society is not far away from the one 100 years ago. I mean yes, the technology and tools are way different now, but if you just compare the sentiment and peoples behaviours, you can see a lot of similarities. People over-consume nearly everything. They overspend and are always on the search for some kind of distraction. The movies from back then are the social media from now. We have a opioid crisis, not just in the US. A lot of drugs don’t get prohibited, but legalised and normalised, which also is a reason for people to consume more and be more distracted. Woman rights are as present as ever. People want to be rich and live a life in luxury, which why most dream of a life in a overpriced city. Farmer? Whats that? Unfortunately we cannot say that the music is as good as it was back than, but most young people spend their weekend partying in clubs anyway. Credit cards are popular as ever.

Looking at the overall society i would argue we are seeing something similar.

Presidents:

The 1920s presidents:

In the late 1910s Wilson got elected twice and had a difficult time to navigated the country through WW1 and the Spanish flu. He got sick in 1919 and so his wife took a lot of control of him and his business as president. Right at the beginning of the 20s Harding got president, but died only 2 years later on a stroke. He was very popular among the people until they found a lot of evidence, after his death, that his government was corrupt and abused its power. After him his Vice Coolidge followed, which was reelected in 1924. He was known for being a man of few words, but the people liked him. He didn’t want to compete for the 1929 election in which Hoover got elected. Hoover had then the honour to ride the country into the great recession.

The 2020s presidents:

Trump got president in the 2016 and navigated the country into the C19 pandemic, but had to move for Biden in 2020. Biden got sick lately and wont compete for the elections anymore. His wife is leading him on every bigger event were he seems pretty confused. Trump is now back and running for president again in 2024. He got shot in the ear lately which gives hm hero status now. For the Americans there are only two real choices, as it seems, and other parties or candidates are not worth talking about.

Market:

The 1920s market:

With the market still in a more ranging environment and in a strong decline into mid 1921, the decade started weak. Arguably the market was in an uptrend since 1903 were the most prominent low was set, but by zooming out you see its more like a range, if you where not able to sell top and buy bottoms. After the August low of 1921 it was basically up only, with some corrections along the way of course. This was mainly due to a flourishing economy supported by easy credit and every single president reduced the taxes for the rich and the business, which were extraordinary high after WW1. The over-spending of the people also helped to grow the companies behind the stocks.

Another big reason for the nearly decade long bullrun were that margin based trades have been made available to everyone and so everyone and their butler bought stocks and most bought it probably on max. available margin 1:10. If you think that doesn’t seem healthy you are probably right.

Causes of the Market Crash of 1929:

- Overconfidence
- Consumerism
- Easy credit
- Overproduction
- Unequal distribution of wealth
- Stock market speculation

The 2020s market:

The market is going up since the financial crisis of 2008 and in the background a new asset class grew. Crypto pulled a lot of new players into the game which were inexperienced and easy prey for established and experienced players. You could argue Crypto is a leverage of the normal markets since is existence. Since these new players joined the game they observe a market, which is only going up, with some corrections along the way every 4 years. It almost seems they are trained to react to a certain pattern. The new players which are not into crypto or stock picking, are buying Index ETFs since over a decade, and got used to up only too. They probably don’t even know that they are playing this game passively too. They are the ultimate exit liquidity for the ones who extract $ regularly. I’m sure there will be a point where this passive investment thing wont work anymore and really big fish start to cash out their funds which they accumulated over the last 15+ years. The exact same thing happened once the investors of the roaring 20s wanted to cash out, unfortunately with a mostly a over-leveraged market not all were able to get their $ out. I bet the biggest players are aware of these things and they will be out before everyone else, like always.

The 2020s started with the ongoing pandemic as in 1920, but with the stock market making an all-time high after flash crashing early on in 2020. Money was printed like never before and so the decade began quit strong and made Elon Musk the riches person alive by 2021. Shortly after we saw inflation rising to new highs, not seen in decades all over the world. A lot of people are now pretty poor as their currency worth shit now. The only way for people to escape inflation is to buy assets, a knowledge which now nearly everyone has.

We saw a global lockdown which removed the possibility from a lot of people to earn money in their business. In the same time the government basically gave people free money with record low interest rates. Taxes were reduce to take pressure of economy during the pandemic. A lot of people have signed loan contracts which are binding them now for 10, 20 or even 30 years and might even have changing interest rates, which are a lot higher now.

Where are we right now?

Its very hard to predict exact timing and draw precise conclusions about where we are, but after studying old newspapers and the DJI chart i tried to draw some conclusions.

Theory 1:

I took the 1919 high and the 2021 high. Both were formed during a pandemic and both were followed by a broad selloff.

After i zoomed in a little and took some time measurement i found something remarkable. It took us always around half of the time from every top to top and from every top to bottom. The next significant high, in price discovery, came in Feb 1926. If we take now half of the round 2300 days, it would set us up for a top in late 2024 or Q1 2025. The DJI back then went trough a selloff followed by a light “depression” in which the market found its roots for a 3 year bullrun without significant or prolonged corrections and toped in 1929, when the great depression hit. From a psychological perspective it would also make sense to sideline most again after the next top, by spreading another round of recession fears and world doom day news to continue a prolonged bullrun.

If this theory is correct it would mean we were lagging two years behind, but are slowly catching up due to the higher velocity.

Theory 2:

Start of WW1 selloff is the Covid crash. It would mean we are six years late. The round 1700 days from the crash low the the high would bring us to a Q1 2025 top.

I considered this as a possibility as the WW1 black swan flash crash fits to the Covid crash magnitude. After studying newspapers i found out that president Wilson got sick and so his wife started to control who speaks to the president and what he is allowed to read and so on. She was considered the first female president. The overall political situation seems to fit perfectly in this theory. In our current situation the war and the pandemic are switched and covid is the hard black swan, which led to the crash.

It also fits that Musk got the richest man on earth as Rockefeller did during WW1. As I’m writing Biden drops out of the elections and will probably also not lead the country anymore and his wife will take even more care of him. Female Vice Harris will probably running for presidency and might lead the presidential business from now on.

This theory would mean the top is very very close and could come any week now, but as we know a lot can happen in few weeks/months.

You can clearly see that no matter which of those two is in play, the probability that we are toping in the not so distant future is given in both of them. The corrections in the 1920s seem not as severe, but they were between 20% and 45% and we are looking at the DowJones, which isn’t nearly as volatile as crypto or the Nasdaq. A 20% correction and/or ranging here could mean a full blown bear market for crypto.

I give the second scenario a higher probability, because the charts, news and overall situation just fit better, so i will prepare more for the second as it also means more pain. I like to be prepared for the worst case and get a positive surprise than the other way around. These theories will prove themselves over time and if i get new information i will change my mind instantly.

If the roaring 20s are somehow in play it seems we are have some more room to run before a multi decade HTF cycle top will hit. Many people are calling for the crash of doom nowadays and the sentiment seems not as positive as it was in the 1920s. Maybe the best lays ahead of us, maybe not. Nevertheless if something like this plays out, the crash and destruction afterwards will be of biblical proportions and the people who are on the wrong side of the economy will pay the price for it.

I both cases one should prepare for a significant correction in the near future and for extreme economic turbulences in foreseeable time.

Take all these informations and predictions with a grain of salt, as i could be completely wrong.

Epilogue:

"What goes up must come down."

The stock market lost almost 90% of its value in four years, unemployment reached 25% in 1933 and millions of people migrated from the Midwest in search for work. The American Dream was temporarily lost, and the future, for many, seemed pretty bleak.

The cites once flourishing, became now a trap for those without riches. The rich folks didn’t get hit as hard, because most never put all their money into the market as they had several different business going on. Poor people probably saw the chance of becoming finally free and put all they had and could into this opportunity, while buying things they couldn’t afford.

This is unfortunately how our broken system works and for the insanely good century the majority paid with a very hard one. Still its mostly due to the greed of few. The imbalance between rich and poor is the main problem in this world. All money just flows in one direction. For one it only gets more, while the other struggle to get his daily needs. 0.1% of people is sucking all the money into their pockets while every trick in the book, no matter the consequences others have to face. They play this world like its monopoly since the modern system is installed. Strange enough that a lot of these magnates started as poor, good hearted (as it seemed) and ambitious man only to later to take all money and hopes from exactly those. Of course we are not talking about all rich people, but from the 0.1% ultra-rich in this world are not many good things to report.

Do you really think the families, individuals and organisations which already controlled half of the world in the 17th century did nothing in the meantime? They understood market dynamics, marketing and power back than better than most do nowadays. If these entities and their heirs improved their game since then, they are now lightyears ahead of everyone else.

This unnecessary and unfair system we live in was created in a beautiful world full of abundance, where food literally grows in the ground and water is falling from the sky. Insanity.

This analysis took me a lot of time. It still unfinished and probably will be till it gets either validated or invalidated. I'm still searching through old newspapers for more clues and hints and will add some of the best below this post.

[barneytheboi @barneytheboi]

the best thing about having to pay a $100 fee per transaction on ETH in 2021 is that the pajeet army couldn’t afford to launch 17,000 bundled scam coins everyday for an entire year straight

[Julian Kwan @julian2kwan]

Token 2049 update:

60% of people here seem to be working or talking about real world asset tokens #rwa

99% of #rwa platforms selling #rwa tokens are doing it illegally, with no licenses

99% of platforms who actually have #rwa tokens available, are only allowing accredited and institutional buyers from developed countries , no love for the real crypto community of retail investors from around the world

Multiple cryptocurrency exchanges also selling #rwa tokens illegally, 5 told me yesterday

We don’t care, free marketing for the asset class, get everyone into the asset class and the value proposition of tokenizing every asset class

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[Lucky Chart Ape @luckychartape]

"I am not a trader, I am an investor".

What is the difference between an "investment" in crypto, and a "trade"?
The end goal is the generally the same. To buy at one price, and to sell at a profit. People use being an "investor" as an excuse for having no discipline, no patience, no plan, no risk management.
They buy at a random time, for a random reason, and will sit and watch their net worth go to zero as "an investor" because what they REALLY are is someone trading, with ZERO experience or skills, and calling themselves an investor. Yet they expect to win.

The worst part is, they are usually buying the top of the whatever the currently most hyped ticker is.

[Fil @fill0r4]

@IamZeroIka Se noti tutti questi lenti bleeding alla fine non fanno altro che terminare con un flush (di recente mi viene in mente 29 luglio-5 agosto o 7 giugno-5 luglio). Non è detto accada direttamente nel weekend, un bounce può darlo, ma le condizioni per un leverage cascade event ci sono

[Mercury @TraderMercury]

this '3-drives, slow-bleed' price action on $BTC usually follows a major top, and typically doesn't pause/end until we've seen an accelerated selloff

[Fil @fill0r4]

@ChartingBit HODLLLL😂

[Fil @fill0r4]

@ChartingBit Molto interessante l'update di oggi, ottimi spunti, specialmente sullo yield curve