Most investors are watching the chip companies while the real money is sitting two layers upstream (Save this).
What you're looking at is the entire semiconductor supply chain, the companies, layers and dependencies that take a chip from raw silicon wafer to finished hardware inside a data center.
And once you understand how this chain works, you realize that the best investments in AI aren't the chips themselves but rather the companies that every chipmaker on earth cannot operate without.
The chain starts with raw materials.
Shin Etsu, Siltronic, and GlobalWafers supply the silicon wafers that every chip is built on.
Wolfspeed and Coherent supply silicon carbide wafers for power chips and these are quiet, unglamorous oligopolies where supply takes years to expand and demand is structurally growing.
Before any chip gets manufactured, it has to be designed and that's where Synopsys and Cadence come in, two companies that together control 73% of the global EDA software market and combined generate over $12 billion in annual revenue.
Every GPU, every TPU, every hyperscaler custom ASIC passed through their tools before a single transistor was ever laid down.
You literally cannot design a chip without them. At Computex 2026, both companies unveiled agentic AI tools that automate chip design steps that used to take weeks, and Jensen Huang endorsed Cadence's autonomy roadmap from stage meaning AI is making their software more valuable.
Cadence posted Q1 2026 revenue of $1.47 billion, up 19% year over year, and raised full year guidance to $6.2 billion.
Then comes the most important monopoly most people have never seriously studied.
ASML is the only company on earth that manufactures EUV lithography machines, the tools that physically print circuits onto silicon at advanced nodes below 7nm.
Every advanced chip fab on the planet, TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix, Intel is entirely dependent on ASML and has no alternative.
Each machine costs $300 to $400 million and takes over a year to build and ASML raised its 2026 revenue guidance to €36 to €40 billion and entered the year with a backlog of €38.8 billion, larger than its entire annual revenue target.
SK Hynix alone committed $8 billion for 30 machines and the new High NA EUV systems, the next generation priced above $400 million each are just entering production with margins that will only expand as volume scales.
KLA Corporation runs the quality control layer, and almost nobody outside the industry talks about it.
As chips get smaller and more complex, the cost of a single undetected defect rises exponentially which means inspection intensity per wafer increases with every new node.
KLA holds approximately 70% market share in wafer level packaging process control, a position it gained 14 percentage points in a single year as advanced AI chip packaging accelerated.
Revenue in its March 2026 quarter came in at $3.415 billion, up 11% year over year, and the company's own internal targets point to $26 billion in annual revenue by 2030, roughly double where it is today.
Here is the investment thesis in one paragraph.
Hyperscalers are spending over $700 billion on AI infrastructure, and the race is only getting bigger.
Every single dollar of that capex flows through this supply chain before a single AI query gets processed.
And the companies at the chokepoints of that chain, ASML with its EUV monopoly, Synopsys and Cadence with their EDA duopoly, KLA with its inspection dominance have no real competitors, multi-decade moats, and revenue that grows almost mechanically every time a new AI chip gets designed and manufactured.
Long Upstream companies and make sure to follow me @MelvinInvests for more overlooked opportunities in semiconductors.
Jensen Huang is investing in every photonics company he can find and the reason why tells you everything about where AI is headed (Save this).
Lip-Bu Tan, the CEO of Intel says, when he looks for investment opportunities, he looks for the bottleneck and right now, the bottleneck is the interconnect, the pipes that move data between chips inside an AI data center.
That is why he backed Credo Semiconductor, Astera Labs and Celestial AI on the optical side.
Here is the simple version of what the interconnect bottleneck actually means.
Think of an AI data center like a city, the GPUs are the buildings where all the work happens but for those buildings to function, you need roads connecting them, fast roads that can carry enormous traffic without congestion.
And those roads are now the single biggest constraint on AI performance.
As clusters scale to hundreds of thousands of GPUs, traditional copper wiring is hitting its physical limits and that is where this entire sector comes in.
Credo Semiconductor (CRDO) is the most direct pure play on this theme, Credo makes high speed cables and optical chips that connect GPUs inside data center racks.
Their revenue tripled in fiscal 2026 to $1.3 billion, growing 272% year over year at its peak and four of the world's largest hyperscalers each individually account for more than 10% of Credo's revenue.
Astera Labs (ALAB) solves the connection problem between different chip types.
Astera makes the PCIe and connectivity chips that manage data flow between GPUs, CPUs, and memory without errors or slowdowns.
Their revenue grew 93% year over year to $308 million in Q1 2026 alone.
The optical companies are where the longer-term and potentially larger opportunity lives.
Copper has physical limits, you can only push electrical signals so far before the signal degrades, the heat spikes and power consumption explodes.
The solution is light, fiber optic connections that move data using photons instead of electrons which is faster, cooler and far more energy efficient.
Jensen Huang made this clear at Computex 2026 because copper works as long as physically possible but at greater distances and larger scale, optics takes over.
Coherent (COHR) is the most established optical company in this space.
Coherent makes the lasers, transceivers, and optical components at the foundation of all fiber optic communications.
Nvidia signed a multibillion-dollar purchase commitment and invested $2 billion directly into the company and their customer order books are already extending out to 2028.
Marvell (MRVL) is the most comprehensive bet across the entire connectivity stack.
Marvell makes chips for optical networking, PCIe switching and custom AI silicon.
Jensen Huang called Marvell the next trillion dollar company at Computex 2026 and backed it with a $2 billion Nvidia investment.
Marvell also acquired Celestial AI, the exact company Lip-Bu Tan backed for $3.25 billion, gaining photonic fabric technology delivering 16 terabits per second of bandwidth.
Lumentum (LITE), Corning (GLW), and Ciena (CIEN) round out the major public names.
Lumentum received a $2 billion Nvidia investment for laser and photonics components.
Corning known mostly for phone glass received $500 million from Nvidia for optical connectivity work and is up over 100% year to date.
Ciena runs the optical networking systems between data centers and is seeing analyst price targets raised on the back of the AI optics boom.
Every time a hyperscaler spends a billion dollars on Nvidia GPUs, the surrounding infrastructure, cables, switches, transceivers, optical components has to be upgraded to match.
The smarter the GPU gets, the more the interconnect matters.
Nvidia has committed at least $6.5 billion to photonics companies in the past 4 months alone and the companies building the roads between the GPUs may end up being just as valuable as the companies building the GPUs themselves.
Follow me @MelvinInvests for more AI, semis and the next big market themes.
High cortisol is aging you faster than cigarettes or vapes.
Gray hair, shot sleep, slow recovery, dead drive.
Here are 7 natural ways to bring it down and slow the clock:
1. Saunas.
$NVDA CEO Jensen Huang is literally telling you what stocks to buy.
Here are 8 companies he's publicly endorsed, invested in, or spotlighted onstage in the last year:
1. $MRVL - Marvell Technology
At Computex on June 2, Jensen brought Marvell's CEO onstage and said "Ladies and gentlemen, the next trillion-dollar company." Stock surged 32% that session. Marvell designs the custom connectivity silicon that ties AI data centers together.
After 3 years using Claude, I can say it’s the technology that has revolutionized my life.
Here are 18 prompts I use daily that have transformed my day to day; they could do the same for you:
(Save this 🔖)
Your data is worth more than oil.
Check your important locations.
Delete your advertising ID. And share this with someone who still believes “it's a coincidence.”
My latest piece is OUT:
Southeast Asia's Race for the Unbanked
I cover the top 8 digital financial services players in the region, from $GRAB GFin and $SE Monee to less well-known players like GCash, Maya, DANA and OVO.
https://t.co/b33nhZNijF
I don't understand why people are still researching stocks manually in 2026
Claude can break down entire companies, stress-test your thesis, and find risks you're missing in seconds
Here are 10 prompts to turn it into your personal stock research analyst:
BREAKING: Silver has lost 43 percent of its value since January 29th. It set an all-time high of $121.67 that day. It closed Friday at $69.50. In less than eight weeks, nearly half the value of the world’s most hyped precious metal evaporated while Chinese banks sold out 600 kilograms of gold bars every morning in under a minute. Two metals that were supposed to move together in a war moved in opposite directions so violently that the divergence is no longer a market event. It is a verdict. Gold is money. Silver is an industrial metal that cosplays as money until the moment it has to choose. The moment arrived on February 28 when the first bombs fell on Iran. Silver chose the factory.
Upwards of 60 percent of silver demand is industrial. JP Morgan’s commodities desk confirmed the figure this year: electronics, AI chip packaging, solar panels, electric vehicle wiring, semiconductor conductivity, data centre contacts. When energy prices spike from a Gulf war that closed the Strait of Hormuz, every factory that consumes silver faces higher input costs. When those costs trigger stagflation, central banks respond with rate hikes. The Federal Reserve now prices a 50 percent probability of hiking by October. The ECB and Bank of England are repricing three or more hikes each in 2026. Higher rates strengthen the dollar. A stronger dollar crushes metals priced in dollars. Silver’s monetary thesis collapsed under the weight of its own industrial identity.
Gold has no industrial identity to collapse. Gold sits in vaults. It does not cool wafers. It does not conduct current through chip packaging. It does not solder solar cells. Gold fell from $5,589 in January to approximately $4,494 this week. But Chinese retail buyers bought the dip in under 60 seconds every morning. The PBOC extended its purchasing streak to 16 consecutive months. Seventy-seven percent of central banks intend to increase gold reserves. The paper price dropped. The physical demand did not. Gold’s floor is not a price. It is a policy.
Silver has no central bank buyer of last resort. No PBOC purchasing 16 months straight. No 600-kilogram quotas selling out at dawn. Silver’s floor is factory demand, and factory demand just absorbed three simultaneous shocks: energy costs from the war, rate hikes from the inflation the war caused, and a helium shortage from the same war that is strangling the semiconductor fabs where silver is consumed.
Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex supplied 30 to 33 percent of global helium before Iran struck it. Helium is irreplaceable in chip fabrication: wafer cooling, vacuum environments, lithography stability, leak detection. SK Hynix sourced 64.7 percent of its helium from Qatar. Fabs are reporting two to three months of buffer. When helium runs short, production slows. When production slows, silver demand for chip packaging falls. The helium trap does not just threaten NVIDIA’s GPU supply chain. It threatens the industrial demand that is silver’s only remaining thesis.
From $121.67 to $69.50 in less than eight weeks. Gold fell too but found a floor built by a billion Chinese citizens and 77 percent of the world’s central banks. Silver found no floor because no sovereign institution accumulates silver as a strategic reserve. No nation builds monetary sovereignty from a metal that loses half its value when the factories that use it shut down.
The war revealed what silver is. It is a commodity with a monetary story attached. The story holds during calm. The story breaks during war. Gold needs no story. Gold is the story.
https://t.co/iFmUcarGdV
Jensen Huang’s “five-layer AI cake” shows how value stacks from energy and chips all the way up to models and applications.
Energy
$GEV $VST $TLN $OKLO $BE $CEG
Chips
$NVDA $TSM $AVGO $MU $AMD $INTC
Infrastructure
$ORCL $CRWV $NBIS $IREN $GLXY $APLD
Models
$NVDA $GOOGL $MSFT $AMZN $META $BABA
Applications
$TSLA $PLTR $SAP $CRM $SHOP $APP
Alibaba $BABA huge drop in profits isn't because of AI, it's because they are fighting a quick commerce war with Meituan. $MPNGF
Meituan has how proven that it's more resistance than most people expected, still hold steady at more than two-thirds of the overall profitable orders.
Alibaba quick commerce segment is still losing more than 100% in operating margin sense, they lose 25B in last quarter alone.
The loss is actually quite good compare to the Q3's 35B. But the quick commerce revenue also incurred a QoQ 9% drop.
Why is Ripple Labs doing stock buybacks of Ripple Labs shares instead of buying the XRP token, if "XRP is at the center of everything Ripple does?"
Ripple Labs socializes all of its costs to XRP holders to pay for its product launches and corporate acquisitions, then privatizes all of the value for its own Ripple Lab shareholders.
Swift namedropping Chainlink for the 100x time and reaffirming their ongoing work together on blockchain interoperability
And yet XRP retail will read this and delude themselves into thinking this is secretly good for their bags, somehow
Funny how institutions never have an issue mentioning Chainlink publicly, but it's always a grand conspiracy about why XRP is never mentioned
something something 1,700 NDAs
🚨 BREAKING: Google Gemini can now analyze any stock like a Wall Street analyst (for free).
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