FINCH

in pool 2 no one can hear you scream.

[Za @ZaStocks]

Once the AI narrative shifts from “taking everyone’s jobs” to curing diseases, advancing education, improving productivity, etc. watch how quickly sentiment surrounding it changes.

Don’t be surprised when government funding eventually starts flooding in.

Remember, the U.S. government helped fund the railroad buildout and played a major role in the early internet buildout because both were viewed as critical infrastructure.

[FINCH @flowgh0st]

$rddt 👀

[Crypto Tony @CryptoTony__]

LARRY ELLISON: AI IS RAPIDLY COMMODITIZING BECAUSE MOST MODELS ARE TRAINED ON THE SAME PUBLIC INTERNET DATA.

THE REAL COMPETITIVE EDGE ISN’T THE MODEL ANYMORE — IT’S ACCESS TO EXCLUSIVE, PROPRIETARY DATASETS.

THAT MAY BE THE ONLY MOAT LEFT RIGHT NOW.

[Za @ZaStocks]

The space trade has been the ultimate example of why theme + narrative are critical.

SpaceX IPO was the ultimate catalyst for a group that already had massive thematic tailwinds behind it.

Charts matter but the story and theme behind the chart is what creates insatiable demand.

[Za @ZaStocks]

The robotics trade feels close.

The first phase of AI was about building intelligence.

The next phase is about giving that intelligence a body.

So far AI has mostly been focused on making digital work easier and more automated.

It helps people build, write, code, research, analyze, summarize, and process more information than any human could on their own.

But everyone knows AI won’t stay digital forever, the next logical step is embodied AI.

The next major phase is going to be about moving AI out of the browser and into the physical world. This is where robotics comes in.

Once intelligence can be effectively embedded into machines that see and interact with the real world, the opportunity becomes so much larger than digital productivity.

Robotics is going to be the bridge between artificial intelligence and the physical world and I think it’ll be one of the biggest trades ever.

[Za @ZaStocks]

I truly feel like this market is going a lot higher than people expect.

That doesn’t mean there won’t be pullbacks and potentially maybe corrections along the way, it means in the big picture I think this market has more room.

The Naz went up roughly 570% during the dot com bull market if you measure from the beginning of 1995 to the March 2000 peak.

From the 2022 bear market low, the Naz is up about 180%.

Further, the dot com boom lasted over 5 years and we’re just 3.5 years into this rally. I’d argue the technology will be more transformational and life changing compared to the internet.

Not to mention the future IPOs.

Everyone is convinced OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX, Anduril, etc. will mark the top, but I’m not convinced. I actually think a top won’t come until all of tiny or garbage “AI” companies go public.

Remember, the Nasdaq doubled in 9 months during that final stretch of the dot com boom.

I’m not saying this has to happen again…

But I do think people are underestimating how far this can go.

[OddStats @OddStats]

HISTORIC CRUSHED VIX

$VIX just went from above 31.50 to below 16.20 within 27 trading days (intraday, not at the close). A massive turnaround in a very short time. How massive?

There's only been one time in the history of $VIX that it went from above 31.50 to below 16.20 in such a short time frame; in early 2019. At that time, $SPX had just exploded upward almost 10% in 25 trading days and people on this very app were certain the market was preparing for another quick nosedive.

The chart below shows SPX during the VIX smash (left of the brown line) and then how SPX did over the next 6 months (from 0.00%, right of the brown line).

BUT @ODDSTATS, CAN YOU EXPLAIN THIS IN ENGLISH BECAUSE I'M NOT SMART ENOUGH TO READ A CHART?

Sure. Despite everyone on this app being certain the market would immediately crash following such a quick VIX collapse and SPX run-up, the market just kept going up and all OTM puts at least 6 months out expired worthless. Does this mean you should buy calls? How would I know? This chart shows 2019, not 2026.

I know...it IS amazing to have me back even if you can't understand a word I'm saying.

[Za @ZaStocks]

Trader psychology:

In early-mid April it was “dangerous” and “risky” to get long.

But now after a historic move it’s safe.

This is exactly why buying pullbacks and downside moves into key levels is how you gain a cost basis advantage before the masses feel comfortable again.

[Options Mosaic | Tony Mansour @tony_mansour]

Options Mosaic Week Ahead Preview for 5/4/2026
*************************

Look for more upside until either Wednesday or Thursday.

VIX positioning changes materially Wednesday morning for the following week. What does this mean? Well, we could react immediately (not my base case) or we could react after the next YamCo RV Thrust kicks off Thursday (or perhaps we even go through next weekend).

Sounds wishy washy but not if you spend 30 seconds to think about how to operationalize:

Don’t fight for a short Monday or Tuesday. Be cautious on Wednesday and Thursday (but not necessarily bearish). Look Tuesday night at positioning for Wednesday. Look on Wednesday night for positioning on Thursday for clues on when the upward pressure is coming to an end.

Be very defensive all the following week 5/11-15.

[Za @ZaStocks]

It’s this simple.

Earnings drive stocks and earnings estimates are exploding higher. Stocks don’t top when earnings are being revised higher at this pace.

Stocks will put in a macro top when earnings stop going up like this, calling a top before then is stupidity.

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

No one wants to hear about Crypto.

Everyone is muting it.

Interest is back near multi-year lows.

At the same time adoption is at an all time high and the supply is being staked.

[Za @ZaStocks]

Being bearish on AI is just trying to be edgy and contrarian for views + attention at this point.

[FINCH @flowgh0st]

Keyword here is “conglomerate”. Sadly this company will trade at a discount until Helios is spunoff. The conglomerate discount is real.

[Ape @ApeMyBags]

$GLXY isn’t mispriced because Helios is unknown.

It’s mispriced because the market still discounts Helios as “future potential” inside a volatile crypto conglomerate.

That discount is rational, but fragile.

800MW gross leased to CoreWeave.
526MW critical IT.
$1B+ expected annual revenue.
~90% lease-level EBITDA margins.
830MW more approved.
The next unlock is simple: lease the 830MW.
If that happens on similar economics, Helios starts looking like $2B+ annual revenue potential and ~$1.8B+ lease-level EBITDA over time.
Entire company market cap is around $10B.
Crypto business + balance sheet + Helios + approved expansion + multi-campus LOIs.

The market is waiting for proof.

But the proof is arriving in sequence.

Don’t take my word for it. Underwrite the cash flows.

[Za @ZaStocks]

Days like today emphasize why your entry + cost basis are so important.

The market is doing nothing wrong yet many names have pulled back 10% or more.

If you have a deep cost basis advantage you’re able to sit tight and relax with cushion. On the other hand if you chased and only got bullish after a 20% rally in the indices you’re probably sweating, down on many of your holdings.

The entry is the foundation of every trade, if you get it wrong you’re at a major disadvantage right from the start.

[Za @ZaStocks]

You should always be looking to improve the worst case scenario in a trade.

If you enter a trade and set a stop 3-5% lower than currently levels, that’s your worst case scenario.

Once you start to gain traction in the trade and it works in your favor, you should be moving your stops up so that your worst case scenario is no longer a 3-5% loss.

A trade that works quickly and goes up 7-10% shouldn’t have the leash to come all the way down to your original 3-5% loss area. Your worst case scenario should now be a breakeven trade or at worst a 1-2% loss.

Winners don’t let winners turn into big losers.

[PBA @801010athlete]

Just my opinion but think mistake a lot of traders make is trying a name once w a stop and moving on vs tightening stops and trying it 2-4x to get it right.

There’s a reason you want in, it’s a leader likely. Leaders never make it easy.

My members will see me stalk a name and try it 3x w a smaller total loss than the 1 time buyer who moves on to likely less strong names.

[Franchise @Franchise9494]

$GEV is to $GE

Just like

Helios is to $GLXY

#Spinout #SOTP

[Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge]

Stocks ripping to highs... and the crowd is clueless.

Bullish Consensus is in the middle while the S&P 500 prints all-time highs....

The crowd is waiting for another pullback that isn’t coming. Are you following price, or them?

👉 https://t.co/dxD8qHBlrB

[Norseman Market Timing @Norseman1]

$SPX 600 A-D Line still going higher! Looks like it smells a new ATH very soon along with the NYSE A-D Line. Not bearish.

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

Nice one from @granthawkridge that shows cyclicals breaking out relative to defensives across all cap sizes.

Yet another risk on clue.

[Venu @Venu_7_]

I remember Mark Minervini mentioning in a TraderLion interview:

“Focus most of your attention on leading stocks, not the indexes.”

That made a big difference to me - during the last dip Leading themes held above the 50DMA.

That was the tell.