Foin

Bulltard

[Aksel Kibar, CMT @TechCharts]

#CRUDEOIL #ENERGY inflection point. Strong support 78-80 area.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

$NVDA and $GOOGL lead 800V DC ahead of schedule.

"Ahead of schedule", pulled up to Q3 2026 with small volume shipments starting .

- Delta Electronics (2308), $VRT
- Song Chuan Precision (7788)
- Schneider Electric, Eaton, Siemens.

All flagged as beneficiaries.

"Market sources indicate that Nvidia’s Vera Rubin platform and Google’s next-generation AI data centers will be the first to adopt the technology"

Source: Commercial Times

The power semi trade should be happy to hear this.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Today, there's a new report that China eased InP substrate exports.

Which is expected to relieve mass production bottlenecks in the photonics market (source: Digitimes)

My optical positions are very happy to hear this:

From $AXTI (substrates), $IQE (epiwafers) to $AAOI (lasers) / $LITE / $SIVE, and others.

Taiwanese optical players like VPEC, Landmark, and others should go brrr as well.

Just to recap: the photonics market, especially for laser companies is moreso "how much can you make" rather than how much demand is there.

InP substrates was one of the main bottlenecks affecting upstream capacity.

So if you're able to make more = more revenue.

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

There are few other markets that so neatly comply to understanding using classical charting principles as Bitcoin (Schabacker, Edwards, Magee)

[Scott @Scott7858868020]

Why Are Servo Motors So Expensive

[shmidt @shmidtqq]

CEO of Anthropic, Dario Amodei:

"We are near the end of the exponential."

3 things he said in 2 hours.
The third, even Dwarkesh pushed back on.

One: at Anthropic, models already do "100% of today's coding tasks."

Two: a country of geniuses in a datacenter, 90% likely within 10 years.

Three: why he won't buy more datacenters, with AGI this close.

Save it. Reread in 2028 and see who was right.

[Foin @foin6]

@DavidSacks Dario is flawed, like Sam Altman.

[Foin @foin6]

@PalmerLuckey What do you think of the Fable 5 export ban?

[Foin @foin6]

@ewarren You are just a millionaire, is this it?

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

The AI supremacy Wars begins.

Think a lot of the upstream supply chain bottlenecks caused by each Country export controlling each other (eg. $AXTI)

Should present some interesting opportunities in the near future.

That being said, Anthropic was getting distilled left and right in Singapore -> China and others.

Hot take, but steps like this do help preserve American dominance in AI, keeping the most advanced model at home.

I don’t think Superintelligence should be global access, since we’re starting to get into uncharted territories.

[Bitcoin Vector @bitcoinvector]

ETFs selling has not been a one-off event.

It has been a persistent source of pressure throughout the entire bear cycle.

Since the October 10 selloff:

→ Bitcoin is down roughly 45%
→ ETFs have distributed 108.5K BTC
→ Equivalent to roughly $9.3B in net outflows

The interesting part is how similar the three distribution waves have been in size, and how each wave created a new leg lower in price.

That is the key message: this has not been random selling.

It has been a repeated ETF distribution pattern pressuring Bitcoin through the bear cycle.

[David Lee @DavidLe76335983]

Two Japanese firms just shut down their production line, cutting 25% of the world’s tungsten hexafluoride (WF₆) capacity. This is what Chinese critical minerals dominance looks like in action — slowly choking allies’ high-tech economies

Kanto Denka Kogyo (sometimes referenced with Showa Denko ties) and Central Glass have notified big chipmakers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and TSMC: inventories run out in June, lines shut for good from July 1. Boom — 2,200 tons of annual global WF₆ capacity gone. This specialized gas is essential for depositing ultra-thin tungsten layers in advanced semiconductors (3D NAND, DRAM, logic chips). Without it, fabs slow or stop

Why? China controls ~80% of global tungsten supply and refining. Beijing tightened export controls and licensing on strategic minerals (tungsten included) — hitting Japan hard. Shipments to Japan have plunged, raw material costs spiked, and these specialty gas producers can’t keep operating profitably or at all. Japanese firms were high-quality, reliable suppliers that Korea and others depended on for ~80% of their WF₆ in some cases

This isn’t random. Japanese PM Takaichi hostile posturing against China and plan to remilitarize Japan brought about Chinese sanction of dual use critical minerals (tungsten, rare earths, etc.) to Japanese companies. Higher costs, supply chaos, lost competitiveness, and eventual factory pain ripple through the semiconductor chain. Auto, electronics, defense… all feel it downstream.

Japan’s been diversifying and stockpiling, but decades of over-reliance on Chinese inputs make this a slow bleed. Allies need to accelerate onshoring, friend-shoring, and alternative processing FAST. Relying on an adversary for the guts of your chip industry isn’t strategy — it’s vulnerability

The “just-in-time” global supply chain was efficient until it wasn’t. Now it’s a national security risk. Wake-up call for anyone still sleeping on critical minerals

https://t.co/KLyOokj2CC

[Pike时政财经分析 @BigbirdflyChan]

刚炒完Rubin架构内存减半，又来炒作cpo推迟，让一些不太懂技术的北美基金经理卖了再说，Semianalysis看来要走the information的路线啊。不过狼来了喊多了，可信度也就越来越差了。😆

相比之下，Funda Ai的报告就可靠的多，我没收周老师推广费😄，但是必须给大家推荐他们的substack。

注：这两家我都有订阅。

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

All the newsletter blogger types got all bulled up on grains at the absolute top

Will the same thing be said about the all commodity tracking index???

Just asking

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

Major support in Silver comes in at $54

Here is how the dynamics of price behavior works:

Late comer bulls who bought >$90 missed the top and have sworn to themselves that they will never sell out

In fact, they have stated their intent to buy more at $65 and more at $60

They will mark the bottom by puking out their positions below $60 swearing to never trade Silver again

This is how bottoms are made every time in every market be it Silver or Bitcoin or Soybeans or Sugar or the S&Ps

$SI_F #silver

[Foin @foin6]

@PalmerLuckey @Clara_Gold Is this a confession?

[Foin @foin6]

Michael Burry gets so much hate from longing $LULU

NFA
Monthly chart, broke the covid low
wick breached Dec 2018 low
but found monthly long term support

What if the AI trade dies?

[Foin @foin6]

@_FORAB 看来股票也完了。何德何能敢去炒比特币! 😂

[Foin @foin6]

@anasalhajji I too buy into the oil should go higher thesis but the crowd overwhelmingly votes $120+, which makes me wary.

[Foin @foin6]

retested Covid low and it is now above bull market support band.
a good bet if AI is cooling off.

[Foin @foin6]

$MTN
It is from Ben Cowen's paid membership content.
sign up to Ben's paid group for more ideas like this.
This is not financial advice
I am not paid by Ben or anyone to post this.