In my latest @bsindia piece, following an Indianomics discussion with @latha_venkatesh and Mridul Saggar, I argue that while sharpening and articulating India’s growth story is critical, policy and market distortions may also have amplified negative sentiment around the INR and deterred capital flows.
Key points:
• No cause for panic: INR weakness warrants attention, but India’s external deficits remain manageable and RBI's buffers are substantial.
• The deeper issue: India’s prolonged struggle to attract sustained net foreign capital amid persistent negative sentiment on the rupee.
• Policy silos: Interest rates, liquidity, taxation, capital flows, and currency markets are deeply interconnected, though policy debates often treat them in silos.
• Unintended consequences: Interventions to suppress interest rates, alongside tax frictions, may have unintentionally weakened capital inflows and lowered the cost of speculative positioning against the rupee.
• Distorted savings: Distortions in taxation and markets have also stunted debt market development, pushing discretionary savings disproportionately into equities.
• Navigating the Trinity: The answer is not avoiding intervention, but engaging more holistically with the “impossible trinity” linking interest rates, exchange rates, and capital flows.
• The structural fix: Rather than introducing capital controls or fresh distortions, responses should aim for deeper debt markets, balanced taxation, and a globally competitive framework for foreign capital.
The piece argues against both panic and rigid orthodoxy, in favour of a more integrated approach to monetary, currency, and fiscal policy.
https://t.co/ud4pLWvj2Q
Token costs are becoming a real issue (https://t.co/uPaPGfOO6G), meanwhile Deepseek V4 is roughly 7-9x cheaper than frontier models
(https://t.co/cf5jbhOHtP)...
In the weeks/months ahead I expect we will see all three outcomes:
1. More high-value applications emerge and get adoption
2. Cheaper models
3. More scrutiny of AI usage.
In the past few days, markets have been whipsawing in response to various AI scenarios, most recently the Citrini thought experiment.
The report sketches a fictional 2028 in which agentic coding tools drive the cost of software production close to the cost of electricity.
In that scenario, corporations sharply reduce or cancel outsourcing contracts, revenues at major Indian IT firms decline, IT exports shrink, India’s balance of payments comes under strain & in its most dramatic passage, even the IMF is imagined to be in preliminary discussions with New Delhi.
It’s a great thought exercise.
But I can’t resist quoting Mark Twain who once said, “Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.”
Let me add another possible scenario to the debate.
I do not claim to have a foolproof counter-scenario. The future remains magically uncertain. Markets are swinging because they are trying to price that uncertainty & in that sense, perhaps they are behaving rationally.
AI will undoubtedly put pressure on IT services companies. Yes, they will need to become more efficient, reduce cost structures, rethink headcount models and move away from pure effort-based pricing toward outcomes & value delivery.
But what if AI does not eliminate service providers & instead makes the best ones even more central?
As AI systems scale across enterprises, someone still has to ensure secure data foundations; integration across legacy and cloud systems; governance, compliance and auditability; mission-critical reliability.
Especially for medium and large enterprises, integration is messy, regulation is heavy, and failure costs are high.
The differentiator may not be who supplies effort but who can deliver outcomes, manage risk and help deliver ‘Scale at Speed’ as we like to say at @tech_mahindra
That role doesn’t disappear. It evolves.
So an alternate scenario, offered with humility and not certainty, is that services firms that pivot decisively toward AI orchestration and outcome-based delivery will remain extremely relevant.
Following up on this tweet, and after several complaints and emails by my friend @PrakashMirpuri - the authorities have repaired a few damaged patches on the road stretch between Kala Chowky and Atal Setu. While this is appreciated, many sections are still in a terrible condition and need immediate attention.
Another serious concern is the poorly constructed speed breakers, which have no proper or visible signage. On the badly lit Mumbai Port Trust Road, these become potential accident traps, especially at night.
I request the @MumbaiPortTrust authorities to please address these issues urgently in the interest of public safety.
@mumbaimatterz@RoadsOfMumbai
@shabbirmb@KalachowkiPS@MumbaiPolice@CPMumbaiPolice It's in the run upto BMC elections..one wonders what mistake have the tax paying Mumbaites done to deserve this on a Sunday evening before the work week starts
This is the nonsense that Sewri, Mumbai residents are subjected to on a regular basis.
Loud ear deafening noise. And the cops don’t seem to take any action.
@KalachowkiPS@MumbaiPolice@CPMumbaiPolice
@SamsungIndia@Samsung My fridge is not working since more than 48hrs and customer care is not able to send a technician. The one guy he sent he tried to offer a deal of private rate versus samsung. After complaining on this also you have not reverted with an alternate guy. Sad!
After doing the concreting work the contractors just left the debris on the footpath .also the paved roads are a mess next to the nicely done concrete road...this is totally unacceptable
This is the state of the footpath outside Celestia, Sewri on TJ Rd. There is no place for ppl to walk. All this filth is lying since so many mths. Rags, debris, plastic. The footpath is also unpaved. Y is @mybmc turning blind eye? Request @mybmcWardFS@CMOMaharashtra urgt action
@MTPHereToHelp@mybmc@KalachowkiPS plz can you empty the connecting roads to TJ as concreting work is going on TJ road and vehicles have to use connecting roads
@MTPHereToHelp@mybmc@KalachowkiPS plz can you empty the connecting roads to TJ as concreting work is going on TJ road and vehicles have to use connecting roads
@ZeptoNow ..ordered a different flavor of kid drink powder and zepto guy refused an exchange within 1minute of realizing the mistake. This is so non customer friendly.. neighborhood store would gladly exchange and so would @DMartReady ..disappointed
@ZeptoNow ..ordered a different flavor of kid drink powder and zepto guy refused an exchange within 1minute of realizing the mistake. This is so non customer friendly.. neighborhood store would gladly exchange and so would @DMartReady ..disappointed
#Mumbai bridges shut over last few years with year of closure:
Hancock bridge, Sandhurst Road, 2016
Delisle bridge, Lower Parel-2018
Gokhale bridge, Andheri - 2022
Carnac bridge, Masjid, 2022
Sion ROB- 2024
@mid_day@khanshadab1982@KIRTISURVE No backup bridge...no access to BKC or sclr connector access for ppl coming from Sion..the highly taxed citizens left in the lurch .
@MTPHereToHelp@Central_Railway@mybmc atleast u should have constructed an alternate east west connector to ease the traffic flow..BKC connector and sclr both a person from Sion can't use .don't we pay taxes