gfunk019

[Claus Vistesen @ClausVistesen]

The curse of a soft landing with a potentially kinked Philips Curve. The big question is whether you can live with say 2.5-to-3.0%. I can see the US ending in an equilibrium like that which might not be so bad. The UK is screwed due to harebrained fiscal policy. The EZ is fine.

[gfunk019 @gfunk019]

@Fullcarry Is oil sock historically a precursor to lagging disinflation?

Is there the same COVID Economic Backstop of $14.4 trillion flooding the economy igniting inflation?

[gfunk019 @gfunk019]

@Plethorus1 @ClausVistesen He just told you

[Claus Vistesen @ClausVistesen]

Final thought from me: If you really think CBs are wrong here, you are currently looking at one of the juiciest front-end trades ever. You can literally receive anywhere from 50-to-150bp in front-end futures over the next 12 months if you think DM CBs don't hike/and or cut next year! That's retirement money!

[gfunk019 @gfunk019]

@Nostre_damus ??????

[gfunk019 @gfunk019]

@RenMacLLC Minutes 😂 from the always late transitory specialists😂

[gfunk019 @gfunk019]

@mc_economist @ClausVistesen @PantheonMacro Good to see you guys posting again!

[gfunk019 @gfunk019]

@MauiBoyMacro How high our oil have to go before some A Grade Deflation

[gfunk019 @gfunk019]

@imetatronink I always felt like those shows were improv theater the way he went off the lyrical script. I’ve never thought that about another live band.

[gfunk019 @gfunk019]

@CRUDEOIL231 @alifarhat79 Somebody call 9-1-1! Shawty fire burning on the dance floor

[gfunk019 @gfunk019]

@Nostre_damus @DougAMacgregor He’s full of it 1/2 the time

[DCP @Dcpcooks]

Long m27 70.5

[gfunk019 @gfunk019]

@IanShepherdson Getting more real every week…

[gfunk019 @gfunk019]

@STIR_Trader_ Ignoring NFP & participation anomaly

[gfunk019 @gfunk019]

@MauiBoyMacro Not this new economy! Spikes are bullish & so are crashes. Bears are extinct.

[Eric Wallerstein @ericwallerstein]

📬

[gfunk019 @gfunk019]

@Fullcarry 50/50😂

[COKE❄️ @0xcoked]

The options are

1) total ground war

2) tell iran sorry please stop stressing the hoes (bond markets, oil prices)

1) isn't happening due to IMPOSSIBILITY, 2) is just a question of when

oil puts with distant expiry is easy money

[brax @BraxResearch]

US 2y tempting buy at 4.30. July hike odds have jumped from 10% last Friday to 35% today. I understand desire to hedge July hike more than usual because no forward guidance setup, but 35% is too high. Warsh went out of his way to say not 1 out of 19 Fed members advocated for an immediate hike.

Looking at recent 2y moves since early May: +20 (current), -19, +23, -17, +22, -18, +21, -16, +13, -13... avg ~20 matches current

Looking at the biggest 2y moves since Trump round 2: +63 (April - Now), +67 (Iran), -58 (25q3 labor slowdown + insurance cuts), +63 (25q2 liberation day), -60 (25q1 DOGE + inflation slowdown)... avg ~60 matches current

Fundamentally we look extended. Short-term comparisons we look extended (+20bps). Long-term comparisons we look extended (+63bps).