@igisci@UCBerkeley @colincbarber @Cal Any chance this will be opened up soon to the University of California employees at the Office of the President in Oakland?
@omar_lizardo I'm often called a troll when I enumerate moderating exceptions to people's passionate declarative tweets. From now on I'm going tell them I'm a shill for Big Caveat.
@ticketdust@Dirk2112@NateSilver538 Not in every state. And the uncertainty grows when you consider margin of error, which is usually more than 4 points. Plus, historically primary polling is less than precise. The strategy might be possible even with some delegate attrition, but it's not optimal or guaranteed.
@ticketdust@Dirk2112@NateSilver538 That probably wouldn't be great for the party. But it also relies on Warren and Sanders making the threshold of 15% to maximize the delegate count against Biden.
@ticketdust@Dirk2112@NateSilver538 Warren is probably not going to drop if she does well in IA and NH, which she has a good shot at. Bernie would never drop early. The voters are going to have to realign proactively, cause a drop is far from inevitable.
@brianpmangan @Bauzerbaby @NateSilver538 This. For at least now, the number of their voters in play between them is a minority. I wonder if that would change if one of them had a clear 10 points on the other consistently. If Harris and Mayor Pete left early, that could push Warren up there.
@NV96308613 @NateSilver538 I haven't seen that one. Have a link? I saw a couple strands ending about 80 miles from AL on maps around that time. Also, Trump was quoted on the 2nd, long after estimates tracked up the coast.
@ot_ford@NateSilver538 Yes, so unimportant to you that you made lengthy comments to multiple people and kept replying to me hours after the retweet. I'll accept that making people defend weird takes about irrelevant things is a personal flaw of mine.
@ot_ford@NateSilver538 If you want to scorn or ridicule Nate, which you seem determined to do, there are plenty of worthy tweets about more important matters on his timeline.
@ot_ford@NateSilver538 It wasn't stealing, it was just the telling of a mediocre joke while sharing a great one. Do you have an axe to grind with Nate, or are you the humor police?
@ot_ford@NateSilver538 c) You don't get the joke. Nate is giving props to Matt while pretending to be the talking head polling analyst reframing in insightless agreement. It's supposed to be without substantial difference. If you were stealing a joke, you don't attach your lesser version to a retweet.
@ot_ford@NickHannula@NateSilver538 He played the polling analyst's parroting affirmation, which doesn't require new material (though he did add white). Are you sure you aren't the one that didn't get the joke? Do you police all lame humor on Twitter?
@SeanK117@NateSilver538 I agree they aren't synonyms. There probably is a strong relationship though. Could you see yourself incredibly enthusiastic about voting for someone you find deeply unfavorable, or vice versa?
@jo@IDoTheThinking Older white guy here, in an old bike helmet, liming around the lake to the bureaucratic office, no discount. There is a white dadcore element in the Oakland scooter mix now and some tech-bros too. I beat them off the line, of course.