Nirai Tomass

Aspiring economist

PhD Student @bse_barcelona @UPFBarcelona, Doctoral INPhINIT Fellow @BecariosFLC, Previously @wu_vienna

[Nirai Tomass @gmmengineer]

🔗Submit your paper abstract here by March 8th: https://t.co/c9bcAMENec

ℹ️For more information, check out the website:
https://t.co/jgwgdCjFMt

[Nirai Tomass @gmmengineer]

📢 Applications are now open for the 2026 BSE PhD Jamboree, a two-day workshop for economics PhD students across Spain.

We are thrilled to announce our three keynote speakers:
•⁠ ⁠@anacostaramon
•⁠ ⁠@andreamatranga
•⁠ ⁠@sarahzoi88

#EconPhD #econtwitter

Links below

[Nirai Tomass @gmmengineer]

@pzoch5 At least someone is finally waking up to the virtues of continuous time

[AEA Journals @AEAjournals]

Forthcoming in the JEL: "How Do Central Banks Control Inflation? A Guide for the Perplexed" by Laura Castillo-Martinez and Ricardo Reis. https://t.co/yoAOXAvbZa

[Nirai Tomass @gmmengineer]

@Bellmanequation @itaisher This is all just a part of a surprise maximizing information policy

https://t.co/8kJ9N1gcI4

[QJE @QJEHarvard]

Recently accepted by #QJE, “A Monetary-Fiscal Theory of Sudden Inflations,” by Bassetto and Miller (@dsmintex): https://t.co/vAAw9OVf5x

[Hanno Lustig @HannoLustig]

2024 may also be remembered as the year U.S. fiscal exuberance died.

post-mortem 🧵 on how we got here.

Right now, with the 10 year US Treasury yield trading well above 4.5% and the federal government spending roughly the equivalent of the defense budget just on interest expenses, a fairly broad-based consensus seems to be developing among economists that the fiscal path we’re on is in fact not a sustainable one, as Jay Powell pointed out 4 weeks ago. r<g logic no longer seems as compelling.

The figure below plots the federal government's interest expense as a fraction of US GDP.

[Nirai Tomass @gmmengineer]

I personally have no problem with HJBs

[Ole Peters @ole_b_peters]

Completeness and transitivity satisfied, hence economically rational.

Strange what economics textbooks define as rational.

[Nirai Tomass @gmmengineer]

@momin_rayhan The derivation in Tomas Bjork's Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time is also super intuitive. Whole book is a pedagogical masterpiece imo.

[Nirai Tomass @gmmengineer]

@Almost_Sure you’ve heard of elf on the shelf but have you heard of

[Nirai Tomass @gmmengineer]

@Almost_Sure @oswinso Can you expand on what you mean by bleeding a little value, please?

[Nirai Tomass @gmmengineer]

@maxgoedl @Econ_4_Everyone This persisted into macro for me. I remember learning all about consumption smoothing, but C = Y in an endowment economy. Bond price adjusts to make it hold, but nobody ever trades it.

[Nirai Tomass @gmmengineer]

@CavaliereGiu Vershynin no doubt

[Nirai Tomass @gmmengineer]

@LeoAparisidL @gp_mihalache Thanks a lot!

[Nirai Tomass @gmmengineer]

#EconTwitter: Any recommendations for software to make Tikz graphs like this, without having to mess with Tikz manually? I tried Tikzit, but it's nowhere near flexible enough.

[Nirai Tomass @gmmengineer]

@AlexZevelev It's from this really cool paper. Essentially an optimal tax problem with public debt being convenient in a certain sense.

https://t.co/KWvHfjv2AO

[Nirai Tomass @gmmengineer]

@gp_mihalache Looks good, I'll check it out. Thanks!

[Nirai Tomass @gmmengineer]

@momin_rayhan @Noahpinion Either the effect is small (maybe because mostly low MPC households hold government debt), or people are convinced their wealth did not rise. Honestly, don't know. Would be interested in what FTPL people say.

[Nirai Tomass @gmmengineer]

@momin_rayhan @Noahpinion That's why FTPL also emphasizes the need for monetary fiscal coordination, so that taxes rise to meet the higher interest costs, and so remove this damping effect.

[Nirai Tomass @gmmengineer]

@momin_rayhan @Noahpinion I think FTPL says it mutes the effect (possibly even turns it positive) via wealth effect on government debt. Roughly the mechanism is rate up -&gt; higher interest costs of debt -&gt; if no raise in surpluses, wealth up -&gt; consumption and price level up.