Groundbreaker

Groundbreaking Ideas - Thematic, Hidden Assets, and Micro-Cap Investing. Previously Equity Research at Bank of America & Wharton Alum

[Groundbreaker @gndbrkr]

The market is making three mistakes:

- Pricing AI as a technology cycle when it’s a credit cycle
- Watching growth rates while the cycle breaks on the second derivative
- Treating a frontier model loan book as though it were a diversified RPO backlog

Read about it below ⬇️

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

Something Sam Altman doesn't want you to know about him:

"I'm tired.

This is the coolest job in the world. I plan to do this for the rest of my career. But it's much harder than I have a way to explain to people."

[Groundbreaker @gndbrkr]

@EllliotttB No chance he bought an interest rate cap on this

[Groundbreaker @gndbrkr]

@FinanceLancelot Interesting. What do you mean by “decline in private credit funding”?

[Groundbreaker @gndbrkr]

@Mr_Neutral_Man Defending a guy who burned $400M of investor equity is a hilarious hill to die on

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

Zuckerberg gave out $100M signing bonuses to build a super team of AI engineers, and they are now all stuck optimizing the algorithm to serve you slightly better ads while all excess compute gets sold to people building actual intelligence

[Groundbreaker @gndbrkr]

@michaeljburry @mims @WSJ we wrote about this extensively here:
https://t.co/xCM2wHY4Al

you should read this one Mike!

[Groundbreaker @gndbrkr]

@patientinvestor I get you're a patient investor and maybe can hold through any cyclicality... but you should also be aware of the risks - you should read this:

https://t.co/YZoC3J7ztd

[Groundbreaker @gndbrkr]

@JackFarley96 @erik_ywr He should read our piece:

https://t.co/YZoC3J7ztd

[Groundbreaker @gndbrkr]

https://t.co/VRrYgUzzpU

[Groundbreaker @gndbrkr]

The market is making three mistakes:

- Pricing AI as a technology cycle when it’s a credit cycle
- Watching growth rates while the cycle breaks on the second derivative
- Treating a frontier model loan book as though it were a diversified RPO backlog

Read about it below ⬇️

[Groundbreaker @gndbrkr]

@edzitron Great stuff! Totally agree on capex cuts and frontier lab fund raising points you made. You might enjoy my latest post:

https://t.co/qIcPkHTDjR

[Groundbreaker @gndbrkr]

Full piece: https://t.co/YZoC3J71DF

[Groundbreaker @gndbrkr]

@EllliotttB rearranging chairs on the titanic

[Groundbreaker @gndbrkr]

@EllliotttB Although I'm not sure who is saving who in this scenario. I'd think the CIM REFT is the one underwater

[Groundbreaker @gndbrkr]

@EllliotttB they ran out of ways to stuff their $CMCT reit with trash so they have to move to a non traded reit

[Groundbreaker @gndbrkr]

@moseskagan that would assume an alignment of incentives...

PE maximizes fees first not investor returns. I know from first hand exp

[Groundbreaker @gndbrkr]

@DratchCap How many years is $12.50/gpu hr sustainable? Aren’t H100s at like $2.50 now?

[Groundbreaker @gndbrkr]

@edzitron Enjoy all your work Ed. I think you'd really appreciate our recent article on the AI Bubble:

The AI Boom Isn't 2000, It's 2008

https://t.co/YZoC3J7ztd

[Groundbreaker @gndbrkr]

@RealJimChanos I agree. It’s an earnings bubble not a valuation bubble. I wrote more about it in my substack article. You should read it Jim

https://t.co/YZoC3J71DF