>> Nan Ya E Glass Sees Hot Demand as Price Hikes Loom; President Chou Ming-jen Says Talks with Customers Continue
- According to the latest disclosure from Kingboard, a leading CCL maker in mainland China, the price of glass fiber E glass raw material will be raised by 15% starting this week.
- This suggests that amid widening supply shortages, the price increase is being accepted by customers.
- Nan Ya noted that Kingboard has already raised prices several times this year, primarily reflecting market supply and demand conditions. Nan Ya likewise plans to continue price negotiations with its customers going forward.
- Nan Ya is a global leader in glass fiber E glass and is favored by the major North American AI players. Some market observers suggest that Nan Ya's relevant capacity has effectively already been locked up by the NVIDIA supply chain.
- Supply of CCL materials is failing to keep pace with demand, and Nan Ya's capacity has now reached full utilization.
- According to the industry, due to the low yields of advanced glass fiber cloth such as T glass and Low Dk, NVIDIA has recently accepted a mixed application of T glass and E glass by suppliers in order to pull forward shipments of high end AI servers.
- With global E glass capacity having been converted on a large scale to other applications in recent years, the supply shortage has intensified and price increase moves across the industry are also spreading.
- Nan Ya Chairman Wu Chia Chao noted that, driven by strong AI demand, utilization rates for epoxy resin, glass fiber cloth, and glass fiber yarn have now approached nearly full capacity.
- Overall utilization of CCL and copper foil has also reached the 80 to 90% level, and he explained that the revenue share of the electronic materials segment could expand further to as much as 60% going forward.
AAII sentiment survey is a good indicator for trend reversal: https://t.co/e04K2eBCQO
Basically when they're bearish we're bullish and vice versa.
Another good indicator is NAAIM exposure index: https://t.co/BEtHseTj0S
If anyone wonders why your portfolio feels like it's moving around a lot lately:
$VIX is sitting at 22.
A quick way to estimate the market's expected daily move is to take the VIX and divide it by 16 (the square root of 252 trading days).
22 ÷ 16 = 1.375%
That means the market is pricing in roughly 1.375% daily moves in $SPY. With $SPY around $732, that's approximately $10.07 swings per day.
For context, when the VIX was around 14 earlier this year, implied daily moves were only about 0.875%.
In other words, we're experiencing nearly double the day-to-day volatility compared to just a few weeks ago.
So if your portfolio feels more volatile lately, it's not necessarily because you're doing something wrong.
It's the environment.
Okay chat, it’s been awhile since the previous one.
And a ton of names from $VPG to $ASPI cooked.
So crowdsourcing a new list:
What’s your highest conviction ticker that you think can 10x in a short timeframe, and why?
Holy mother of InP lasers.
Rosenblatt just dropped an InP supply and demand model today and the numbers are staggering.
NVIDIA asked the supply chain to scale InP laser capacity by 20x from 2025 to 2030. The vendors pushed back and agreed to 12x. Even the conservative scenario has Datacom supply still 50% behind demand exiting 2030 after a 12x increase.
12x supply increase over five years. Still not enough.
Rosenblatt explicitly calls it a non-cyclical growth industry well past 2030. The InP supply chain is structurally short for the rest of the decade.
Here is what the revenue buildout looks like by supplier across 2025 to 2030:
$LITE -- $600M in 2025 to $9B by 2030. The dominant player scaling fastest including a new InP fab acquisition in Greensboro NC converting in 2028, adding $2.5B in 2028 and $5B in 2029.
$AAOI -- $60M to $2.1B. The high-torque play. Rosenblatt sees it growing from under 5% to nearly 10% transceiver market share and entering the ultra-high-power CW laser market for CPO. Smallest base, biggest percentage runway.
$SIVE -- sits alongside as the pure-play InP laser specialist and external light source for CPO -- the chokepoint Rosenblatt's entire supply model is built around. DFB laser supply confirmed tight through Q3 2027.
$AVGO -- $550M to $4.5B. Second largest by revenue. Strong but less pure-play InP than LITE.
$COHR -- $125M to $4.3B. Rosenblatt's top near-term pick. Expects revenue acceleration and gross margin expansion from 6-inch wafer production driving 800G and 1.6T transceiver sales.
VIAV -- $53 stock, called out specifically for underappreciated bottlenecks in OCS and CPO test expertise and capacity.
Total InP Datacom market: $1.9B in 2025 to $22.75B by 2030. Nearly 12x.
Flags from the report.
$CIEN -- Rosenblatt is cautious. Side GM expectations have gotten too high and do not factor in price increases from LITE and COHR as suppliers.
$CRDO -- viewed as a niche player, not strongly relevant to the CPO optical supply chain. Expects 1.6T AECs to be weaker than the market expects.
If CPO scale-up slips beyond the current 2H27 build window, 2028 becomes a buying opportunity rather than a revenue year. Wafer supply, test and measurement, DSP, PIC, and laser capacity are all identified as potential chokepoints.
But the direction is not in question. NVIDIA is the demand signal and NVIDIA asked for 20x. The supply chain is building for 12x. The gap between those two numbers is the entire trade.
$LITE $COHR $AAOI $SIVE for the InP laser supply chain.
$IQE $AXTI $SOI for the InP epi and substrate layer underneath them.
$SOI for SiPh substrate.
Bullish Photonics