China is a conglomerate willing to use its GDP and power to cross-subsidize any internal business that benefits from scale economies and network effects, until that business achieves a global supply monopoly.
You are not responsible for your first thought,
but you are responsible for your second thought and first action.
Your automatic first thought is due to conditioning.
Your response is due to choice.
You cannot control what pops into your mind, but you can control what you do with it.
#Wisdom
New essay by @sayashk and me clarifying and deconstructing a slippery concept: We argue that AGI is not a milestone. There is no capability threshold that will lead to sudden impacts.
With the release of OpenAI’s latest model o3, there is renewed debate about whether Artificial General Intelligence has already been achieved. The standard skeptic’s response to this is that there is no consensus on the definition of AGI. That is true, but misses the point — if AGI is such a momentous milestone, shouldn’t it be obvious when it has been built?
In this essay, we argue that AGI is not a milestone. It does not represent a discontinuity in the properties or impacts of AI systems. If a company declares that it has built AGI, based on whatever definition, it is not an actionable event. It will have no implications for businesses, developers, policymakers, or safety. Specifically:
* Even if general-purpose AI systems reach some agreed-upon capability threshold, we will need many complementary innovations that allow AI to diffuse across industries to realize its productive impact. Diffusion occurs at human (and societal) timescales, not at the speed of tech development.
* Worries about AGI and catastrophic risk often conflate capabilities with power. Once we distinguish between the two, we can reject the idea of a critical point in AI development at which it becomes infeasible for humanity to remain in control.
* The proliferation of AGI definitions is a symptom, not the disease. AGI is significant because of its presumed impacts but must be defined based on properties of the AI system itself. But the link between system properties and impacts is tenuous, and greatly depends on how we design the environment in which AI systems operate. Thus, whether or not a given AI system will go on to have transformative impacts is yet to be determined at the moment the system is released. So a determination that an AI system constitutes AGI can only meaningfully be made retrospectively.
The essay has 9 sections:
1. Nuclear weapons as an anti-analogy for AGI
2. It isn’t crazy to think that o3 is AGI, but this says more about AGI than o3
3. AGI won't be a shock to the economy because diffusion takes decades
4. AGI will not lead to a rapid change in the world order
5. The long-term economic implications of AGI are uncertain
6. Misalignment risks of AGI conflate power and capability
7. AGI does not imply impending superintelligence
8. We won’t know when AGI has been built
9. Businesses and policy makers should take a long-term view
Full essay (about 5k words):
https://t.co/EfHFwCoAJZ
The Man Who Raised Calcutta🧵
It may sound peculiar, but what if we were to say that a single man is responsible for the birth of almost the majority of the marvels of Calcutta, and many more? Yes, this is the story and journey of a genius who went largely uncelebrated.
I have changed my employer, operating from a new laptop, using a new email id .. still they are able to connect, this is some crazy user tracking @pagerduty does.
It will be fair to say Elon musk is filling the void created by Trump on Twitter, just blabber some dumb shit for the white masses, play the popularity contest game, garner likes, rinse and repeat. #elon
@markedmonds1 Yes confirmed from other people this is true.
Clearly Elon doesn’t have empathy for people because he was never a… hold on, he’s a dad to several kids. So surely he could emphasise if he had empathy.