Top Tweets for #CFBPicker
CFP Championship #CFBPicker projections : Indiana vs Miami
47 of 48 models have Indiana winning, from 17.4 to 3.5 points. 29 of 48 have Indiana covering 7.5.
Highest on Indiana: @dratings, @beta_rank_fb, @davidsasser
Highest on Miami: @RyderAnalytics (SUP!), @OddsTrader_
Very early look at the NCG, for #CFBPicker tracked models that have been refreshed to reflect yesterday's results ...
Let's go modelers, get your stuff updated, let's go!
CFP Semifinal #CFBPicker projections : Indiana vs Oregon
41 of 48 models have Indiana winning.
26 of 48 have Oregon covering 3.5.
Highest on Indiana: @trentonsorensen, @davidsasser, @beta_rank_fb
Highest on Oregon: @RyderAnalytics, Moore Ratings, @mcillecesports, @DRatings
CFP Semifinal #CFBPicker projections : Mississippi vs Miami
44 of 48 models have Miami winning SUP, but 29 of 48 have Mississippi covering 3.5.
Highest on Ole Miss: @ESPN_BillC (2.9), @davidsasser (2.5)
Highest on Miami: Moore Ratings (7.2), SRS via @CFB_Data (7.0)
CFP QF #CFBPicker projections : Georgia vs Ole Miss
Among 48 tracked models, all 48 have Georgia winning, but a whopping 42 have Ole Miss covering 6.5.
Highest on Georgia: @Room44B, @trentonsorensen, @mcillecesports
Highest on Ole Miss: @ESPN_BillC, @slate_fluker, @CFB_Data
CFP QF #CFBPicker projections : Indiana vs Alabama
Among 48 tracked models, 47 have Indiana winning, and 32 have Indiana covering 7.5. The models LOVE Indiana.
Highest on Indiana: @beta_rank_fb, @trentonsorensen
Highest on Alabama: @RyderAnalytics (SUP!), @SportsLine
CFP QF #CFBPicker projections : Texas Tech vs Oregon
Among 48 tracked models, 25 have Oregon winning, and 22 have Texas Tech winning. 38 have Texas Tech covering 2.5.
Highest on Oregon: @trentonsorensen, @davidsasser
Highest on Texas Tech: @bcfremeau, @SportsLine
CFP QF #CFBPicker projections : Ohio State vs Miami
All 48 models have Ohio State winning SUP, by a range of 3.5 points (@CFB_Geek) to 14.3 points (@beta_rank_fb).
39 of 48 had Miami covering the earlier line (9.5), but 29 of 48 have Ohio State covering the current (7.5).
CFP Game 4 #CFBPicker projections
Oregon vs James Madison ... the models leaned on JMU to cover 21.5 (26 of 40), but it's now at 20.5 so that would be much more split.
36 of 40 models have Oregon winning by 2 TDs.
CFP Game 1 #CFBPicker projections
Oklahoma vs Alabama ... the models like Oklahoma to win, despite being a 1 point dog for much of this week (has recently flipped to -1.5 at Caesars).
But this should be a fantastic, competitive game.
2025 Wk 16 #CFBPicker recap ...
Congrats to model of the week, @mcillecesports, which went 55.6% ATS w/ better wATS, and exceptional 9.83 MAE, 0.19 points better than #2.
Other strong models:
Congrove
PiRate
@trentonsorensen
@slate_fluker
Dashboard: https://t.co/nZYmXOptou
I have added the following options under the Game Type filter on both the #CFBTV & #CFBPicker dashboards ...
CCG
CCG + CFP
CFP
Here are the tracked model projections in every CCG the last 3 years. In 2024 they were awful. In 2023 they were awesome.
CCG week leverage chart has been complete. May update retroactively on Sunday, but I think this pretty much covers it.
This is one of my favorite private datasets, covering every postseason game since 1946.
It powers the Game Type tabs on the #CFBPicker & #CFBTV dashboards.
@VSiNLive @TShoeIndex Anybody interested in this type of information should check out the #CFBPicker dashboard, which compares the performance & projections of 50 public models. @TShoeIndex being one of them ...
(best on desktop)
https://t.co/nZYmXOptou
2025 Wk 15 #CFBPicker recap
Congrats to model of the week, the Congrove Rankings, which went 64.6% ATS & beat Vegas by 4 games SUP.
https://t.co/lJqin86B9J
Other strong ones:
@ProfessorSides (elite MAE)
@PEARatings (64.6% ATS)
@davidsasser
Dashboard: https://t.co/nZYmXOptou
@seattleisking @HuskyFanPodBDTW @WiLLi909 @dawg206 @WestCoastCFB For HFA just apply whatever you want. Im my formal projections, I am using 2.8 this year but that can be kind of a matter of personal taste.
All projections from this system, and many others, can be found on the #CFBPicker dashboard.
https://t.co/nZYmXOptou
2025 Wk 14 #CFBPicker recap
Congrats to the model of the week, Keeper Ratings, which rode 66.1% ATS w/ MAE almost a full point better than Vegas to the best score of the week.
https://t.co/oajbYey5jo
Other strong ones:
@Room44B
@beta_rank_fb
Dashboard: https://t.co/nZYmXOptou
2025 Wk 14 #CFBPicker backward looking standings
Through week 13, @CFPResumeRanks remains the model with the best retroactive performance.
Other contenders:
#MetricsConsensus
@CFB_Data (SRS)
@TeamRankings
@PEARatings
But it's going to be difficult to unseat the retroactive 👑
The #MetricsConsensus is doing well in 2025.
Among 47 #CFBPicker tracked models who have projected 99% of the games this year, in overall performance across SUP/ATS/MAE, it ranks ...
1st/6th against closing lines
1st/2nd against Mon night lines
1/2
2025 YTD ...
We have a new top model, and it's the Sunday version of the #MetricsConsensus. It passed the @CaesarsSports open/Mon lines to take the top spot.
Next best civilian models:
@CFB_Geek
@cfb_professor
#MetricsConsensus (Monday version)
SP+ via @ESPN_BillC
2025 Wk 13 #CFBPicker recap
Congrats to the model of the week, SRS ratings via @CFB_Data.
It went a blistering 48-10 SUP, 35-22 ATS, 11.31 MAE. Supporting KPIs were also outstanding.
Other good ones:
@TeamRankings
@mgrissom
@CFBNerds
Dashboard: https://t.co/nZYmXOptou
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