Top Tweets for #OrcProductionFunnel
#1pageAssessUkrWar #OrcProductionFunnel #OrcLossRate
T55s pressed into service (tweet below). Some serious tank losses for Russia: they set a modern record. 😀

#ruZZia has dug up T-55A tanks out of the mothballs.
#ORCdesertion #ORCproductionFunnel #RussianArmyMutiny
Looking forward to that analysis, @Tatarigami_UA
Periodically, we get a glimpse at it:
https://t.co/QWZU3BBOru
https://t.co/fUKxY5CvQF
70k Russians in 2025? vs 500k-700k actually in theater. 10% plus. Other data indicates the pace of that increase.
Been trying to benchmark Russian desertion rates - those are somewhat buried within MIA estimates. Will update the analysis in JAN 2026

4/ At the same time, over 7,846 service members are officially listed as deserters, with criminal investigations currently underway. This figure includes only active, unresolved cases. The 74th brigade leads, with an astonishing 3,012 soldiers actively wanted for desertion

#OrcProductionFunnel #OrcLossRate #1pageAssessUkrWar #Ukraine #ukraineWar #UkraineWarNews
Related: https://t.co/eSUexiLEf5
The speed of the Russian offensive in Ukraine is the slowest of any war in the last 100 years, - The Wall Street Journal.
Putin is trying to portray the actions of the occupying army as an "inevitable victory," and Donald Trump seems to share this view. But the Ukrainian armed forces and independent experts say that the reality is quite different:
➡️ The Russian offensive is slow, and casualties are high. The speed of the advance is lower than in almost all major military campaigns of the last century, even compared to the Battle of the Somme in 1916, when the Allies pushed the Germans back 10 km.
➡️ The Russian army reached Pokrovsk, 8-10 km away, in August-September 2024, but the first groups of soldiers didn't enter the city until the end of October 2025—9-10 months longer than the Allies took at the Somme.
➡️ Russian army documents state that the Russians plan to breach the fortifications at a rate of 1.5–3 km per day, but in reality, they are advancing at approximately 1.5 km per month.
Instead, Moscow is actively using disinformation and fake maps to influence foreign public opinion and Ukrainian society, the WSJ concludes.
Only Trump is stupid enough to believe everything the Russians say.

#OrcDesertion #OrcProductionFunnel #OrcLossRate #RussianArmyMutiny #1pageAssessUkrWar #UkraineWar
Did some analysis last year regarding Russian desertion rates benchmarked. In September, updated estimate of Russian desertions and pegged it 70k (10%-12% of Russian army in Ukraine). Pretty healthy rate now😀
Little tsar is really working Useful idiot and his band of boobs to pressure Ukraine to surrender. Why? Russia in a race against time: Russian armies do mutiny and Russian economy (ex: oil production) under severe pressure (which, can produce political turbulence - even in tightly controlled fascist state).
Related article regarding Russian desertion rates here:
https://t.co/1C8FgEAzgS
Shout out to @Mylovanov for posting a link to the article

#OrcProductionFunnel #OrcLossRate #1pageAssessUkrWar #Ukraine #ukraineWar #UkraineWarNews
Starting a key stats chart comparing various stages of the war. Plan to add much to it. Will be fun to add economic cost to Russia and destruction of their strategic position. Will also add the addition of a Useful Idiot in 2025.

@general_ben #OrcProductionFunnel #OrcLossRate #1pageAssessUkrWar
Yes...less than a 2% gain in last 3 years fighting a country 1/3 its size in pop.

#OrcProductionFunnel #OrcLossRate #1pageAssessUkrWar #UkraineWar #UkraineWarNews
Fantastic analysis by @Jonpy99 (thread below). His analysis shows a reduction in tanks stored in depots during the war of ~5k. Oryx pegs Russian tank losses at 4.2k.

1/ A couple days ago @CovertCabal released his MT-LB count video, done in collaboration with me. I was celebrating my birthday AFK this weekend, but now it's time to make a thread about it. https://t.co/Ajdy9EKzUB
@hochuzhit_com #1pageAssessUkrWar #OrcLossRate #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWarNews #RussianArmyLosses #OrcProductionFunnel
Related: https://t.co/GHuGrTWbCP
#OrcDesertionRate #OrcProductionFunnel #RussianArmyMutiny #1pageAssessUkrWar #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Ukraine️
Desertion rate within #RussianArmy continues to grow (analysis from @Tatarigami_UA below). I've seen estimates of 10 to 20% now; definitely accelerating.
As has been the case since beginning of war, this war likely ends one of two ways: the bunker (little tsar toppled) or the battlefield (Russian army mutiny).

Our research, based on tens of thousands of personal records, shows that desertion rates in the Russian army have doubled in 2025 compared with 2024. If the trend continues, we estimate at least 70,000 deserters this year - roughly 10% of the entire force deployed in Ukraine:

#kto41army #1pageAssessUkrWar #Ukraine #UkraineWar #UkraineRussianWar #OrcLossRate #RussianArmyMutiny #OrcProductionFunnel #OrcDesertion
Also in the stats from @Tatarigami_UA
today (tweet below); desertion rate for the 41st Army. I pegged the desertion rate for the Russian army at ~17% in 2022. Seems to be increasing. I need to update this analytical thread.
Chart below puts desertion rates into some historical context. Shout to USA and British armies in WW2: no desertion (under 1%) with those lads. That will happen when fighting a just cause.
Afghan army deserves a shoutout: desertion rate above 85% twice in three generations! Note to major powers: don't count on them to hold the field.

4/ At the same time, over 7,846 service members are officially listed as deserters, with criminal investigations currently underway. This figure includes only active, unresolved cases. The 74th brigade leads, with an astonishing 3,012 soldiers actively wanted for desertion

#OrcProductionFunnel #1pageAssessUkrWar #OrcLossRate #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar
Update of the Russian Production Funnel thread. Of course, a ton of SWAGs to get to a number. How, slogging through the dynamics of what it implies relative to current battlefield context produces a few comments
1) Troop quality: The old required 3-1 force ratio equation for success is broken. Lots of analysis regarding that. TQ more critical than raw numbers on a modern battlefield. How has that changed?
2) Change in platform quality: There's a reason Russian relying on FABs instead their depleted artillery: Ukrainian improvement in battlefield arty, CB and drones relative to Russian decline (see chart below right - I need to update that...FABs). Of course, there's an answer to FABs - longer range anti air. Maybe NATO will stop slow walking providing those capabilities to Ukraine. Anyways, relative platform quality should be accounted for somehow to determine 2025 outcomes.
3) Kursk: Kursk happened which changed narrative of the war (at that time) on many levels. Still unclear how that fits into the equation.
4) Regime stability: In order to estimate ~500k to ~600k Russian troops in Ukraine, given what Russia has raised ~1.1M troops for their meat assaults since FEB 2022, they are suffered ~700k losses. Check out survival rates of each "class" of recruits (chart below) Implication? Morale more brittle. It produced Prig's mutiny in JUN 2023. Will it produce another with Russian continuing relatively fruitless (check out rate of KM gain per month? Will Kremlin teams what to change up their general parter - little tsar? No idea, but fruitless meat wave assaults have a big cost that is eventually paid in strategic will/morale.
5) Vichy: Clear that there has been a DRAMATIC change in USA policy due to JAN 20 change out in administration. Agree that this is now European republic's big test. Unclear how that plays out.
6) Frontage. Check out frontage (troops/km) benchmarks.
Obviously, treat the funnel analysis with caution. It is importance is examining what has come into it, what has happened to it and its implications.

"A minimum of 172,000 Russian troops have been killed and 611,000 wounded, of which at least 376,000 are severely wounded (disabled), with up to an accumulated 235,000 wounded but recoverable." per @IISS_org estimates.
https://t.co/fbUvGiMEwq
#RussianArmy #RussianArmyMutiny #OrcLossRate #OrcProductionFunnel #1pageAssessUkrWar #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine #RussianArmyDesertionRate
Took a swipe at estimating current Russian army desertion rate. My guess? 15 to 20%. Methodology and related stats below. @ChrisO_wiki did a related thread in NOV 2024 (quoted tweet below).

1/ The equivalent of an entire regiment – more than 1,000 soldiers, including two lieutenant-colonels – has deserted from a single Russian division. The huge numbers highlight the normally well-hidden scale of desertions from the Russian army. ⬇️

#1pageAssessUkrWar #OrcProductionFunnel #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Ukraine #OrcSuckerBet #CostToRentNKtroops
NK troops that haven't fought in war in 3 generations vs a top 5 army in the world that has been fighting for 10 years? Little tsar's NK feudal troops ain't working out so well.

#1pageAssessUkrWar #OrcProductionFunnel #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Ukraine #OrcSuckerBet #CostToRentNKtroops
Interesting tweet from @NOELreports regarding little tsar paying for NK feudal troops. Analysis below: NK taking little tsar to the cleaners.
Did a bit in AUG 2024 regarding the expected value of a Russian taking a contract to fight in Ukraine. A very bad bet. Chart right.
Why would little tsar need to pay relatively high amounts to get contract soldiers? Or, pay high prices for NK feudal troops? Guess there is a manpower shortage in Russia these days...and little tsar fears the blowback from mobilization.

According to a report from the New York Times, Putin reportedly paid Kim Jong Un up to $6 billion for weapons and soldiers sent to the Kursk region. Kim received approximately $315 million for sending 11,000 North Korean soldiers to Kursk. The arms supplies to Russia are estimated to be worth between $1.72 billion and $5.5 billion. Part of the payment was made in cash, while the rest was exchanged through barter, including oil and food.
https://t.co/BUF60Yceaq

#1pageAssessUkrWar #OrcLossRate #OrcProductionFunnel #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine #UkraineWar
Interesting chart from @M0nstas (quoted tweet below). Thought I would examine Russian troop and kit loss rates during different periods of the war - and compared to net changes in territory occupied. Chart left below.
So what?
1) RUS lost a lot of kit compared to troop losses during the initial invasion...a ratio of 4 orcs to 1 kit.
2) #operationKupcake - rollback of Kursk and then liberation of Kherson...a ratio of 8 orcs to 1 kit.
3) RUS then went with #BakhmutHaig meat grinder. Ratio jumped to 21 to 24 orc/kit.
4) Since JUN 1, 2023...been averaging 9 to 1. Very consistent.
5) Russian has been losing 1,300 troops/day since APR 23, 2024. 40k/month. Probably why little tsar begging North Korea for its feudal troops. Would guess Russia running about 10k troops/month short of replacement rate: a significant burn rate.
6) Chart right below graphs orc and kit loss rate by period of war. Burn rate for Russian HIGHLY elevated last 6 months. Little tsar counting on the election of his Useful Idiot next week for that to payoff.

High risk high reward operations.
October losses will total about 450 km².
While that's significant, it may not seem as severe once you zoom out a bit.

#OrcProductionFunnel
Related chart.

#OrcLossRate #1pageAssessUkrWar #Russia #UkraineWar #russianlosses #UkraineWar #UkraineRussiaWar️️ #OrcProductionFunnel
Russian loss rates for last three months continue at dramatically elevated levels. Chart below compares loss rates for various periods of the war. Rate for last month a tad under loss rate since late April.
Updated #OrcProductionFunnel (3rd chart). I take Ukrainian estimates published daily and deflate by about 1/3. Published USA/UK/NATO intel shows a further deflator of 40%. Or, if Ukraine official stats show 100 Russian KIA/WIA/MIA, I slice it to 66...Published USA/UK/NATO intel then clock in at 40.
What's the actual TOTAL ALL IN Russian losses (not counting those that fled country & went underground)?
0.6M (USA/UK/NATO published)
1.0M (mine)
1.5M (Ukrainian gov't est)?
No idea.
We do know it is enough to give Elvira heartburn (quoted tweet below). 😀 This is good: war ends in bunker (little tsar deposed) or battlefield (Russian army mutinies). Evidently, we still have a ways to go. Nov 5th may get us closer...assuming #PutinAmericanCollaborators not elected.

The Central Bank of russia predicted a slowdown in the economy to almost zero next year and inflation that would exceed government forecasts by one and a half times
The head of the Central Bank, Nabiullina, said that labor reserves and production capacity are almost exhausted, which creates a risk of stagflation. The growth in consumer prices will reach 6.5-7%, and supplies of imported goods will continue to decline.
To curb inflation, the Central Bank raised the key rate to 18%, but this could lead to a slowdown in economic growth. Additional complications are created by sanctions due to the war in Ukraine, which complicate the financial transactions of russian companies.

#1pageAssessUkrWar #ukraine #russia #UkraineStrong #Ukraine2024South #UkrOffensive2023Zap #krynky #kherson
Hadn't checked in on the Russian OOB in South (using @ukraine_map ) since NOV 2023. Update below.
So what?
1) Stress. #OrcProductionFunnel stressed. Another data point. Despite little tsar's goal of raising 30k new troops a month, that's not happening. On the southern front, there appears to be about 5 new regiments. That's it.
2) Unknown. We have no idea how full or not these regiments are. If we peg Russian force total in Ukraine at about 280k...probably 40% here....or 110k....1400/regiment....3 battalions each...around 500...which I think makes sense. Russian battalions were under strength at start of war and that hasn't significantly changed.
3) Composition. Only real change on the front is Russian MOD continuing to freakout regarding #krynky bridgehead. Russia tossed in some new VDV/Air Assault and naval infantry units. Additionally, Russia has added about 6 arty regiments to this front
4) CBRN: Something that caught my eye was the CBRN units at Gold/Juno/Sword. Maybe I missed them in NOV, but I think they are new. Why added to this area? background piece here:
https://t.co/d1z96FQBsM
5) Russia on defense: Russia continuing to play defense on this front. Occasionally, they make an idiotic lunge at #Vuhledar ...but overall on defense with no apparent plans (or capability) to push significantly forward.
Summary: Continuing significant opportunity for Ukraine IF Ukraine can strangle RUS LoCs on this front (the long game) and coordinate multi brigade offensive operations.

@PhillipsPOBrien #OrcLossRates very high (thus, strip the borders) and #OrcProductionFunnel under severe stress. Response? Little tsar runs to North Korea.

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