Top Tweets for #RussianArmyMutiny
#ORCdesertion #ORCproductionFunnel #RussianArmyMutiny
Looking forward to that analysis, @Tatarigami_UA
Periodically, we get a glimpse at it:
https://t.co/QWZU3BBOru
https://t.co/fUKxY5CvQF
70k Russians in 2025? vs 500k-700k actually in theater. 10% plus. Other data indicates the pace of that increase.
Been trying to benchmark Russian desertion rates - those are somewhat buried within MIA estimates. Will update the analysis in JAN 2026

4/ At the same time, over 7,846 service members are officially listed as deserters, with criminal investigations currently underway. This figure includes only active, unresolved cases. The 74th brigade leads, with an astonishing 3,012 soldiers actively wanted for desertion

#OrcDesertion #OrcProductionFunnel #OrcLossRate #RussianArmyMutiny #1pageAssessUkrWar #UkraineWar
Did some analysis last year regarding Russian desertion rates benchmarked. In September, updated estimate of Russian desertions and pegged it 70k (10%-12% of Russian army in Ukraine). Pretty healthy rate now😀
Little tsar is really working Useful idiot and his band of boobs to pressure Ukraine to surrender. Why? Russia in a race against time: Russian armies do mutiny and Russian economy (ex: oil production) under severe pressure (which, can produce political turbulence - even in tightly controlled fascist state).
Related article regarding Russian desertion rates here:
https://t.co/1C8FgEAzgS
Shout out to @Mylovanov for posting a link to the article

#OrcDesertionRate #OrcProductionFunnel #RussianArmyMutiny #1pageAssessUkrWar #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #Ukraine️
Desertion rate within #RussianArmy continues to grow (analysis from @Tatarigami_UA below). I've seen estimates of 10 to 20% now; definitely accelerating.
As has been the case since beginning of war, this war likely ends one of two ways: the bunker (little tsar toppled) or the battlefield (Russian army mutiny).

Our research, based on tens of thousands of personal records, shows that desertion rates in the Russian army have doubled in 2025 compared with 2024. If the trend continues, we estimate at least 70,000 deserters this year - roughly 10% of the entire force deployed in Ukraine:

#kto41army #1pageAssessUkrWar #Ukraine #UkraineWar #UkraineRussianWar #OrcLossRate #RussianArmyMutiny #OrcProductionFunnel #OrcDesertion
Also in the stats from @Tatarigami_UA
today (tweet below); desertion rate for the 41st Army. I pegged the desertion rate for the Russian army at ~17% in 2022. Seems to be increasing. I need to update this analytical thread.
Chart below puts desertion rates into some historical context. Shout to USA and British armies in WW2: no desertion (under 1%) with those lads. That will happen when fighting a just cause.
Afghan army deserves a shoutout: desertion rate above 85% twice in three generations! Note to major powers: don't count on them to hold the field.

4/ At the same time, over 7,846 service members are officially listed as deserters, with criminal investigations currently underway. This figure includes only active, unresolved cases. The 74th brigade leads, with an astonishing 3,012 soldiers actively wanted for desertion

#1pageAssessUkrWar #PrgMutinyPalooza #RussianArmyMutiny #UkraineWar #UkraineRussiaWar️️ #ukraine
Great thread by @TuiteroMartin below regarding Prig mutiny 2 years ago. 2 bits I posted at the time (left and upper right).
Some bits and bobs bottom right. I really do need to update the mutiny thread analysis.
Bottomline: 1 failed mutiny so far, no significant mutiny since. Why? Daily reports of desertions, mistreatment, low morale in Russian army - but it has definitely not broken despite big losses, miserable leaders and conditions, etc. Why?

1. Wagner invade Rusia, Día 2. Prigozhin: "controlamos las instalaciones militares de Rostov, incluido el aeropuerto".
_________
Wagner invades Russia, Day 2. Prigozhin: "we control the military installations in Rostov, including the airport."
#RussianArmyMutiny
Related: https://t.co/ThEAYjUMom
‼️So Many Prisoners, There’s Nowhere to Put Them — Russians Surrendering in Mass Near Lyman
At the Lyman front, what’s unfolding looks more like a military collapse than the actions of the "second-largest army in the world." Russian soldiers are surrendering by the dozens — according to Ukrainian forces, this wave of voluntary surrenders has never been seen throughout the war.
This was shared by Rostyslav Yashchishyn, a soldier from the 63rd Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, in an interview with the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s ArmyInform agency. He said that the Russians are no longer fighting — they are surviving.
Without food, water, or command. And in response to their pleas for help, drones drop... the Russian flag. "So they’ll run around, take pictures," says Yashchishyn.
The prisoners themselves share how they spent their days chewing bitter grass, hoping for drops of morning dew. Many fought until the very end, but realizing they had been abandoned, they emerged with their hands raised.

#RussianArmyMutiny #1pageAssessUkraineWar #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianArmy #Ukraine
Good news from @RFUEnglish regarding #Kupyansk / #Lyman front:
https://t.co/iqx5vE5ZKu
As has been the case since FEB 24, 2022, the war only ends if:
1) Russian army mutiny
2) Putin deposed
3) Ukraine conquered
#3 is not going to happen; despite election of Useful Idiot NOV 5, 2024.
Related charts on mutiny context and Kupyansk front below. I need to update the mutiny chart; been some developments on that thread as the vid from @RFUEnglish indicates.

#RussianArmy #RussianArmyMutiny #OrcLossRate #OrcProductionFunnel #1pageAssessUkrWar #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine #RussianArmyDesertionRate
Took a swipe at estimating current Russian army desertion rate. My guess? 15 to 20%. Methodology and related stats below. @ChrisO_wiki did a related thread in NOV 2024 (quoted tweet below).

1/ The equivalent of an entire regiment – more than 1,000 soldiers, including two lieutenant-colonels – has deserted from a single Russian division. The huge numbers highlight the normally well-hidden scale of desertions from the Russian army. ⬇️

#1pageAssessUkrWar #RussianArmyMutiny #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine #UkraineWar
Haven't updated the Russian army mutiny analytical thread in awhile (chart left below). I also haven't updated desertion rate analysis for quite awhile (on the to do list).
Report from @PStyle0ne1 (quoted tweet) regarding desertions from 20th motorized rifle (255th regiment?) and 98th VDV divisions.
20th Mot Rif took a hammering during the Kherson 2022 campaign (OOB chart right), while the 98th VDV suffered significant losses initial lunge on Kyiv. Since then, both have not fared well. 98th was rumored to have tossed in with Prigozhin during his mutiny. Additionally, 98th VDV's commander was fired this summer (98th's failure at Chasiv Yar); at least the 2nd time their commander has been tossed out. Finally, there has been MUCH chatter lately regarding relatives of 98th VDV troops trying to find their MIAs:
https://t.co/bauXxhMw9Z
The war was only going to ever end favorably for Ukraine if Kremlin makes a change in its general partner (little tsar exits) or the army mutinies (something much broader than #prigMutinyPalooza ). For Russia, they win if strategic will of NATO and/or Ukraine cracks (Useful Idiots working that one for little tsar).

An entire regiment of the 20th motorized rifle division of the Russian Armed Forces deserted
Internal documents from the Ministry of Defense about an entire regiment of deserters have been posted online.
It has become known that more than a thousand soldiers of the Russian 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division have fled from the front and are listed as having left the unit without permission.
The document contains the names, dates of birth, ranks and other information of 858 contract soldiers, 150 mobilized soldiers and two conscripts.
Among them are 26 junior officers, a major and 2 lieutenant colonels.
Russian journalists managed to confirm the authenticity of this list.
It also became known that a large number of servicemen who left the unit without permission are listed in the 98th Guards Airborne Division.

#RussianArmyMutiny #1pageAssessUkraineWar #RussianArmy #UkraineWar️️
Continuing Russian morale problems - accentuated by having no reserves and having to use conscripts and what not to try to plug hole at Kursk.
https://t.co/cih9fOBGxg
#1pageassessukrwar #KtoKursk2024 #Kursk #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar️️ #RussianArmyMutiny
Well that's interesting: helps secure flank (Sudzha).

Ukrainian forces have taken control of the town of Russkoe Porechnoe Kursk region signifying an advance.
@IAPonomarenko #russianArmyMutiny #ktoKursk2024 #1pageAssessUkrWar
I really do need to just do a mutiny chart on the last 8 days of the Kursk operation. Very good news to see an entire Russian formation saying No Mas.

#1pageassessukrwar #KtoKursk2024 #Kursk #KurskPeoplesRepublic #Ukraine #UkraineStrong #ktoKorenevo #korenevo #UkraineRussiaWar️️ #RussianArmyMutiny
Day off to a good start:
1) Progress again at Korenevo reported
2) Reports of a Russian formation surrendering (488 Motor Rifle... ~100)
3) Little tsar declares an emergency in Belgorod oblast
4) Russian trains not running on time
Chart below left has gotten a little busy: tried to show the changes since two days ago. There have been a lot 😄


#RussianArmyMutiny
Related: https://t.co/PnTrog1snH
SBU units reportedly captured over a hundred Russian soldiers.

#RussianArmyMutiny #1pageAssessUkraineWar #RussianArmy #UkraineWar #KtoKursk2024
I need to update the chart below. Through yesterday - due to Kursk Operation - I've seen estimates of 2k - 4k POW/MIA. That hasn't happened in a week previously I believe. And I don't recall 100+ Russian troops surrendering at one time (quoted tweet from @IAPonomarenko below).
Something else.
Had a discussion with mates that "It is not 1941". Different now - Ukraine responding after being invaded and brutalized the last 2.5 year. It is different than the previous invader on bent on a war of enslavement (i.e. what little tsar desired for Ukraine). Also, you didn't have social media (an outlet for social discontent).
Finally, little tsar's promise to Russia for 2 decades is an absence of chaos and a rising economy. That ended FEB 24, 2022 - due to little tsar's war of conquest. And now, the chaos accelerates in Russia: a brilliant operation by Ukraine to create strategic dislocation of Russia (which had been occurring, but, this is up a few levels).
Anyways, I need to update the Russian Army Mutiny chart. 😀

Unbelievable.
About 100 Russian troops, basically an entire company, surrendering to Ukraine in Kursk Oblast.
We have never seen anything like this before.
#RussianArmy #RussianArmyMutiny #1pageassessukrwar #Ukraine #UkraineWar #UkraineRussiaWar️️
Been awhile since I updated the mutiny chart. Need to grab some stats. Good to see accelerating surrenders (quoted tweet below) and desertions from the Russian army.

We were captured by the "Ukrainian Army."
The conscripts in #Sudzha, with minimal training and no reinforcements, did the smart thing and surrendered. Of course, there are some Russian mothers and wives who will be denied a bag of carrots and some dumplings, but that is the price of war.
#OSINT #UkraineWar #BreakingNews #BreakingNow #Ukraine #Russia
Repost appreciated!
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