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#1pageassessukrwar #OrcLossRate #RussianLosses #UkraineRussiaWar #ktoBSFdestroyers
Updated Russian and Ukrainian losses from Oryx.
Russia's destruction of their assets they began war with continues at an epic rate; tank losses for one...Black Sea Fleet as another.
Implications of BSF destruction here:
https://t.co/2EqaDTtHjU
...and a list of ships sunk/destroyed/damaged here:
https://t.co/yOceetEHp5
I have updated the main Oryx loss lists with infographics from our partners at @valka_online
#1pageAssessUkrWar #OrcProductionFunnel #OrcLossRate
T55s pressed into service (tweet below). Some serious tank losses for Russia: they set a modern record. 😀
#ruZZia has dug up T-55A tanks out of the mothballs.
#OrcLossRate #1pageAssessUkrWar #ukraine #UkraineWarNews
@EuromaidanPress tweet below shows a HUGE drop off in Russian tank losses: burned through their stock (military incompetence/Ukrainian tenacity) and the age of drones dawned. Quite accomplishment by little tsar: most post WW2 tank losses. Similar AFV/APVs and about every other vehicle class.
Checked out helo and aircraft losses. They've slowed to a trickle: Russia unwilling to commit what remains of those assets in theater (besides glide bombs) due to never establishing air superiority in Ukraine.
Given lack of kit, Russia just continuing to toss meat at the front...which explains little tsar's recent push for a limited mobilization given significant continuing troop losses.
Russia lost 9,655 tanks—more than NATO's entire inventory. Drones made armored assaults suicidal. Advances now happen on foot.
Newly built T-90Ms aren't going to the front. They're deploying toward Finland—facing NATO, not Ukraine. 👇
#OrcProductionFunnel #OrcLossRate #1pageAssessUkrWar #Ukraine #ukraineWar #UkraineWarNews
Related: https://t.co/eSUexiLEf5
The speed of the Russian offensive in Ukraine is the slowest of any war in the last 100 years, - The Wall Street Journal.
Putin is trying to portray the actions of the occupying army as an "inevitable victory," and Donald Trump seems to share this view. But the Ukrainian armed forces and independent experts say that the reality is quite different:
➡️ The Russian offensive is slow, and casualties are high. The speed of the advance is lower than in almost all major military campaigns of the last century, even compared to the Battle of the Somme in 1916, when the Allies pushed the Germans back 10 km.
➡️ The Russian army reached Pokrovsk, 8-10 km away, in August-September 2024, but the first groups of soldiers didn't enter the city until the end of October 2025—9-10 months longer than the Allies took at the Somme.
➡️ Russian army documents state that the Russians plan to breach the fortifications at a rate of 1.5–3 km per day, but in reality, they are advancing at approximately 1.5 km per month.
Instead, Moscow is actively using disinformation and fake maps to influence foreign public opinion and Ukrainian society, the WSJ concludes.
Only Trump is stupid enough to believe everything the Russians say.
#OrcDesertion #OrcProductionFunnel #OrcLossRate #RussianArmyMutiny #1pageAssessUkrWar #UkraineWar
Did some analysis last year regarding Russian desertion rates benchmarked. In September, updated estimate of Russian desertions and pegged it 70k (10%-12% of Russian army in Ukraine). Pretty healthy rate now😀
Little tsar is really working Useful idiot and his band of boobs to pressure Ukraine to surrender. Why? Russia in a race against time: Russian armies do mutiny and Russian economy (ex: oil production) under severe pressure (which, can produce political turbulence - even in tightly controlled fascist state).
Related article regarding Russian desertion rates here:
https://t.co/1C8FgEAzgS
Shout out to @Mylovanov for posting a link to the article
#OrcProductionFunnel #OrcLossRate #1pageAssessUkrWar #Ukraine #ukraineWar #UkraineWarNews
Starting a key stats chart comparing various stages of the war. Plan to add much to it. Will be fun to add economic cost to Russia and destruction of their strategic position. Will also add the addition of a Useful Idiot in 2025.
@general_ben #OrcProductionFunnel #OrcLossRate #1pageAssessUkrWar
Yes...less than a 2% gain in last 3 years fighting a country 1/3 its size in pop.
@secretsqrl123 #OrcLossRate
Russian tank formations haven't fared well during Russia's invasion of Ukraine (v2022-2025)
#OrcProductionFunnel #OrcLossRate #1pageAssessUkrWar #UkraineWar #UkraineWarNews
Fantastic analysis by @Jonpy99 (thread below). His analysis shows a reduction in tanks stored in depots during the war of ~5k. Oryx pegs Russian tank losses at 4.2k.
1/ A couple days ago @CovertCabal released his MT-LB count video, done in collaboration with me. I was celebrating my birthday AFK this weekend, but now it's time to make a thread about it. https://t.co/Ajdy9EKzUB
@mediazona_en #1pageAssessUkrWar #OrcLossRate #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWarNews #RussianArmyLosses
Related: https://t.co/CsMZmxXrTC
#1pageAssessUkrWar #OrcLossRate #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWarNews #RussianArmyLosses
Saw the chart left from @mediazona_en . Was curious how loss rate by Russian region correlated with population, population change since 2021, density, non Orthodox religion, Russian ethnicity. Also tried to related to reported losses of particular units from each region:
Decent correlation: lower population, declining population growth, greater prevalence of non Orthodox religion, ower population density and lower percentage of ethnic Russian population regions have higher losses (as reported elsewhere throughout the war).
Rich sons of Moscow & St.Petersburg aren't serving in the war (note two areas at the bottom of the list).
Little tsar and Russia using the war to eliminate Russian "undesirables" and "expendables" (from the viewpoint of rich/ruling class in Moscow and St.Petersburg); no surprise there.
@hochuzhit_com #1pageAssessUkrWar #OrcLossRate #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWarNews #RussianArmyLosses #OrcProductionFunnel
Related: https://t.co/GHuGrTWbCP
#1pageAssessUkrWar #OrcLossRate #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWarNews #RussianArmyLosses
Analysis from @hochuzhit_com (tweet below) pegs Russian loss rate at 361/day this year. Ukraine gov't daily report pegs in at 1,168/day in 2025 ...or 3.2x. (chart left) and 851/day since war start.
@mediazona_en confirms 133k Russian KIA since war start. (chart right). Since these are confirmed, we would need to multiply to account for those not confirmed (left on the battlefield, missing, etc). Pick a number? 2x? 3x? No idea.
@BBCNews pegs Russian KIA at 322k. No WIA or MIA numbers.
@CSIS puts Russian KIA at 250k, WIA at 700k thru JUN 2025...or 750/day.
Which is correct? 361/day - 750/day - 851/day? My 2 cents peg it close to 750/day. Why?
#OrcProductionFunnel analysis - one needs to look at the number of troops that invaded, minus losses, plus sent into theater, minus the few that have rotated out and balance to troop level today. I haven't updated that analytical thread in quite awhile. Will do so soon.
The Ukrainian project @hochuzhit_com has published a photo of a document with Russian losses over 8 months, from January to September 2025. According to it, total KIA numbers 86,744, roughly 10,843 per month, which is very close to our earlier estimates. Total losses are 281,550
#OrcLossRate #1pageAssessUkrWar #RussianTanks #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar
Tank losses. Little tsar, Shoigu and Gerasimov have managed to lose somewhere between 4k (Oryx @WarSpotting and 11k tanks during the war. Blend of estimates place the number around 7k.
Context? Most tank losses suffered by an army post WW2: by a country mile. More importantly, one of Russia's BIG advantages when the war began was kit (tanks, arty, air). All three have been relatively neutralized (except air glide bombs). A historic achievement - to enter a war with a tremendous advantage in kit - and fail to win, significantly hurt your economy and expand the alliance (NATO) against you.
So, why hasn't Russia geared up tank production since the war began? Many reasons. Tweet below from @EuromaidanPress dabbles in part of the Russian problem.
Been some chatter that Russian (unconfirmed) has ramped up production to around 300 a year (plus the ~600 old rusty crapola they manage to refurbish).
More context? During WW2, Russia pumped out around 90k tanks (65k t34s!).
Given rates of destruction (and they have slowed and will slow since Russia will maintain some minimal reserve unless the state collapses), likely a few thousand t80s, t72s remain; a shadow of what Russia began war with. @WarSpotting pegs t55,t62,t70 losses as a percentage of all tank loss now at 75% - with a dramatic increase in the percentage from t55s and t62s (37%!).
More detailed loss analysis here: https://t.co/CESKMEz6Lv
and here:
https://t.co/fCv2EqcHAe
(which shows a recent dramatic increase in t55 and t62 losses).
All good; destruction of Russian military assets at an impressive rate continues.
How many T-90M tanks is Russia building—300 or just 10? NATO’s asking for a friend
The analysis community’s best guesses range from “almost none” to “a lot,” which isn’t much help for military planning.
https://t.co/q2Lu6fetNv
#kto41army #1pageAssessUkrWar #Ukraine #UkraineWar #UkraineRussianWar #OrcLossRate #RussianArmyMutiny #OrcProductionFunnel #OrcDesertion
Also in the stats from @Tatarigami_UA
today (tweet below); desertion rate for the 41st Army. I pegged the desertion rate for the Russian army at ~17% in 2022. Seems to be increasing. I need to update this analytical thread.
Chart below puts desertion rates into some historical context. Shout to USA and British armies in WW2: no desertion (under 1%) with those lads. That will happen when fighting a just cause.
Afghan army deserves a shoutout: desertion rate above 85% twice in three generations! Note to major powers: don't count on them to hold the field.
4/ At the same time, over 7,846 service members are officially listed as deserters, with criminal investigations currently underway. This figure includes only active, unresolved cases. The 74th brigade leads, with an astonishing 3,012 soldiers actively wanted for desertion
#1pageAssessUkrWar #OrcLossRate #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine #Russianarmy
Updated Russian army loss rates for 2025.
I think the last official stats from Russian MoD has them losing 48k for the year war and a few tanks. I doubt the validity of their stats.
@CSIS peg's Russian KIA at 250k and 700k WIA...so 19x what Russian MoD claims. @TheStudyofWar in that ballpark. Ukraine MoD pegs total Russian losses at 1M.
Good related article here: https://t.co/YrHEhzDA9O
Context in the third chart: what has Russian gained for 1M battlefield losses? A strategic defeat on scale of Russo-Japanese War 1904-05. Strategic blowback will be epic.
#1pageAssessUKRwar #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine #OrcLossRate
Saw the tweet from @astraiaintel below. I was interested what the cost to Russia was of that minimal territorial gain. Analysis below.
At current rate of territorial gain, Russia will need a few more decades to conquer Ukraine. There will be changes during that time frame that will impact that territorial gain or roll back 😀 As was always the case, long term favors Fremen and dooms House Harkonnen and their #putinAmericanCollaborators
#UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineWar #OrcLossRate #1pageAssessUkrWar
Time to update this chart. Great work by @KilledInUkraine (tweet below)
I remind you that before the invasion there were only 318 names on the memorial for decades of wars from Afghanistan to Syria. Now there are an estimated 2000+ dead from the war against Ukraine alone.
New names:
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