Top Tweets for #latecycle
People are about to find out…
ALL BEAR MARKETS BEGIN WITH A YIELD SPIKE..
Good luck chasing the most overrated, overhyped, & overvalued market ever.
Source: BCA Research
Now I feel much better about Kevin Warsh.
He dislikes data, models, forecasts, and targets.
Hard to know what’s left—ouija boards, vibes, or just whatever Trump says that morning?
#Fed #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #LateCycle #Institutions #DebtCycle
In this speech, Kevin Warsh is:
- Skeptical of data
- Skeptical of models
- Skeptical of forecasting
- Skeptical of explicit targets
Exactly how should the Fed set the funds rate? What would be a measure success?
@patrickbetdavid @patrickbetdavid leadership transitions often align with late-cycle pressures.
Capital tightening forces organizational resets long before markets stabilize.
https://t.co/w9BVovJ4GI
#Silver #Gold #LateCycle #CapitalDiscipline
Oh… and this dropped recently.
The UN warns of imminent financial collapse as funding dries up.
Geopolitics + capital stress = real questions ahead.
Hope shorts managed risk.
Physical was scarce, we added what was left.
Next week should be interesting. #Gold #SilverPrice
BREAKING: the Truth Social Crypto Blue Chip ETF unveiled! The trust will track a basket of assets including $BTC (70%), $ETH (15%), $SOL (8%), $CRO (5%) and $XRP (2%).
Check out the new new highs chart for the Technology sector. Does that look like #latecycle or #earlycycle?
Join us at https://t.co/H4p1RcpfIn for more sector charts and analysis.
Only Dumb/Manipulative #StockMarket fund managers will tell you rate cuts will be coming at todays levels🧐99% fact is rate cuts NEVER happen until Stocks start to crash 1st. So remember higher rates UNTIL we see a crash that ends THIS #LateCycle $SPX (1987/2001/2009/2018/2020)
#StockMarket tactical buy/sell signal is neutral selling👇Pic2 Shows how bad Sept is during a PreElection year. Sept always deserves seasonally to be down, but might only be down 3-6% depending on how bad news gets? Respect Seasonals so that they always work for all of us $SPX
Past 0.786 retrace, solid monthly/weekly candles. Getting harder & harder to make a technical argument against new highs. Need some selling ASAP or this is no BMR $SPX $QQQ #LateCycle
@Hedgeye @federalreserve @KeithMcCullough The federal reserve’s job isn’t to be right, it’s to maintain a narrative
@emilyrroland Moving away from the companies that produce the items we want and toward those that produce the items we need. Well said. #latecycle #markets
Je m'adresse à celles ou ceux qui sont à côté de leurs pompes au sujet de l'état du cycle financier. Cet article pourrait grandement vous aider. #marketcrash #latecycle $CAC $DAX $SPX $IXIC #gold #silver #copper $BRENT $WTI
https://t.co/hbvasnqQd5
If the Fed had actually Cut Rates….
Banks would have pulled back Lending on Lower #LateCycle Risk Adjusted Returns… & a Credit Based System would have De-Levered self perpetuating and amplifying a Downturn like 2018-2020 on XYZ Catalyst.
Now it’s the Exact Opposite.
The answer is Fed never required GSIBs 2publicly show Bank Level OpCo LCRs in 2019… coz they were razor thin vs RLAP Living Will Requirements (RLAP).. & perhaps didn’t want 2scare markets.. when running at “$50Bs” of QT per month #LateCycle w no $1.8B RRP Shocks + $900B Struts.
Most Economists don’t get the Yield Curve imho… which is why they were jamming people into Risk for the entire year in 2019 & especially after the Sep 2019 Repo crisis catalyzed QE4… meanwhile the Fed cut to ZIRP.. thereby cutting incentives to lend amidst #LateCycle leverage.
@siddiqui71 In 2019 we were #LateCycle.. & SLR Pressure came from a Recession & ensuing loan loss provisioning cycle with hits to Tier 1 Capital as the largest driver of pressure…now we are #EarlyCycle & still Relief is needed coz of the Denominator of the ratio that excludes Fed Cash.
BTW, the @gamesblazer06 vs @Stimpyz1 debate...
Rechecking history should settle.
If we still have the exact same problems as the last cycle then we haven't advanced anywhere.
Therefore,
We are ultra #LateCycle, not #EarlyCycle
Manx cat Wins!
https://t.co/fNxwKxBiuw
Stuff you don’t usually see #LateCycle
Now Savings at 6.4%.. still close to this Century’s average of 6.6%.. some “Normalization” of Credit Costs off 50 year lows.. but Banks Reserved in Cards at 6-8% still w 1 handle still on Jobless Claims & 11MM JOLTs.
$XLF #Reflation
@barryknapp @EPBResearch @siddiqui71 Great list… Also Consumer Card Net Charge Offs & Delinquencies are at the lowest in 35+ Years…Beveridge Curve on Steroids, Savings Rate at 7.3% is still at highs versus previous credit cycles.
$XLF #Reflation
Great chart Liz Ann. Employment is the last of the Mohicans - latest if #LateCycle indicators to fall
Small businesses’ hiring plans (orange) have rolled over considerably, while job openings that are hard to fill (blue) are off peak, but haven’t fallen as swiftly
@gamesblazer06 Don't kid yourself! Russia wacked, China going full 2007 right now, emerging markets off a cliff, energy & food rising on declining supply.
That's contraction, depressionary contraction on a global scale.
It's late #LateCycle. You got it wrong b/c COVID didn't end last cycle...
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