Top Tweets for #utpi
A few additional thoughts:
Obviously, #UTPI was way off-sides this month. Reviews grew 46% MoM while Originations fell 3.9%.
Up until last month, UTPI has been an incredibly reliable indicator as to where Origination Volume was going to land. After today's release, it's pretty clear that the prior long-standing relationship is no longer valid. At the very least, it's outputs should be taken with much less reliability.
Possible explanations include lower approved loan sizes (or more reviews coming from Cash Line) or a change in how reviews are published (i.e. Review Rate).
$1,342M puts Upstart on track to meet their guidance, but doesn't put them comfortable ahead of vastly exceeding it yet. Macro risk (UMI) remaining unchanged at 1.50 is a relative positive.
Dang! Very disappointing☹️
Upstart $UPST August Originations are $1,342M - down 3.9% MoM and up 56.6% YoY
September 3 UMI is 1.50 - flat MoM from August 3
#UTPI with a big swing and a miss 😱
@garbagebutter78 @StockZombie222 I expect trend in lower #UTPI / origination volume ratio to continue/ accelerate. Hence, I would expect lower origination volume compared to what TP reviews suggest. The focus still remains on Personal loans with lower overall volume per review but higher margin >>profits will 🚀
Upstart $UPST August Trustpilot #UTPI reviews hit 2,281 - up 200.0% YoY and 46.0% MoM 🛡️⚔️
This is the strongest month of Trustpilot review activity on record for the UTPI era - and it's not even close. August Origination Volume & UMI will be released on Thursday, September 3.
To meet the implied revenue guidance, my math suggests Upstart only needs $2,800M in OV volume for the remainder of the quarter. In my 3Q26 Earnings Review, I told you we were looking at a sandbag. The first proof points are here.
While not a direct 1:1 relationship, UTPI has proven time and time again to be directionally correct on the trend of Origination Volume, even highlighting last year's model tightening well in advance.
@paulxgu 🧑🍳
@sec_filings_bot @RepTonyWied is a very smart dude! 👏
$UPST 💪
#AI #fintech #stocks #lending #HenryInvests #UTPI
Signal > Noise. #UTPI
$UPST Aug #UTPI reviews running well above July’s pace — daily count nearly doubled vs June/July. Curious if this maps to internal originations, and hoping it’s genuine demand, not a 3Q25-style tightening whiplash. Would love visibility into whether credit discipline is holding.
This is the difference in my Upstart $UPST interest rate for a $10,000 loan from July 26th to today, August 10th.
No $600 origination fee, 25bps lower interest rate - materially lower APR. #UTPI has gone from 50.9 to 52.9 (+3.9%) during this timespan - maybe UMI has come down? Interesting nonetheless
@HenryInvests Thanks Henry! Those numbers make me wanna dance! 🧟♂️🕺 🤖 🔊🎶
#Henryinvests #UTPI
✈️✈️✈️✈️
#UTPI data drop 🙌 happy friday!
#UTPI
Upstart $UPST recorded 87 Trustpilot reviews yesterday, a new all-time single day high for the UTPI era.
This breaks the previous record of 84, which was just achieved ..... on Wednesday!
Turn on the jets! ✈️
Luckily, we have #UTPI which in combo with other variables is a great leading indicator.
If you just run simple math on the OV needed to arrive at $1.4B this year - based on the 2Q26 Take Rate (which I define as platform fees / OV) plus some growth rates for Servicing and NII - it's really not much to meet the guide.
Macro could cause this to be more challenging, but as long as UMI does not materially up-tick, the writing is on the wall here for UPST to come in here with a FY topline beat.
My take is Gu is managing expectations for a beat and raise into the end of this year.
Upstart $UPST July Trustpilot #UTPI reviews hit 1,562, up 54.0% YoY and 5.5% MoM 🛡��⚔️
July's Trustpilot Reviews per Day hit 50.4, up 54.0% YoY and 2.1% MoM, reaching a new all-time high. This comes in light of what will likely be a UMI print over 1.50 on Monday.
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh appears dead set on appeasing POTUS by keeping rates on hold. So, the bond market is doing the tightening for him. The 2yr & 10yr treasuries are surging. As the risk-free rate rises, so does the cost to borrow.
Less Fed guidance & less market communication = a risk premium building on the long end. That pressure hits lending, then the broader economy. Couple that with an oil / energy shock, and I would be surprised if Upstart's models do not tighten (as they should) in 3Q26.
Review trends suggest the models did begin to tighten in the middle of July - as I outlined in my earnings preview. #UTPI reached 52.6 on July 14, before parsing gains to 49.0 as of July 31 as compared to 48.3 on July 1. While we all want to see massive OV growth, ultimately Upstart must get the credit performance right.
The surge in yields and energy is undeniable - my best guess is that this model tightening continues into August. Of course, this can all change depending on how the geopolitical landscape materializes, which is incredibly volatile.
Overall, I am still confident in Upstart's ability to meet the annual guidance. That's the key word - annual. This business is a bit noisy, month-to-month fluctuation in originations are the exact reason why Upstart's management team stepped away from quarterly guidance and swapped to annual.
July originations and August 3 UMI will be reported on Monday. My guess is OV lands near ~ $1,420M with UMI near 1.55. While #UTPI review counts were up MoM - June OV included the last weekend in May, and I suspect that converted borrowers were approved at slightly lower loan amounts as macro worsened.
Total 2Q26 OV was $4,227M, with trajectory as $1,274M -) $1,453M -) $1,500M. On this basis, I am projecting $356M in 2Q26 revenue.
As we look out into 3Q26, depending on intensity of the macro, I could see a scenario of $1,420M -) $1,400M -) $1,480M which would equal $4,300M in 3Q26 OV. There is obvious upside here if macro risk unwinds on any Iran peace deal.
Running some napkin math here on Take Rate. Servicing Revenue, and NII, in my estimation, would yield ~$360M in 3Q26 revenue as compared to analyst estimates of ~$365M. Those estimates are noisy. For example, 2 weeks ago the sell-side had Upstart's 2Q26 topline at ~$345M, now it's $352M.
An Upstart's 2026 revenue path of $308M -) $356M -) $360M -) $376M puts them right at the $1.4B guidance. I think it's highly likely they achieve this and the macro is souring what could've been a truly epic year (although I still think it will be epic). In the long-term, model improvements will always trump macro. Paul Gu could also pull the price lever on Take Rate to protect near-term financials, which is something I think he very well may consider.
TLDR: July Trustpilot Review #UTPI trends were strong, yet strength faded modestly in the back half of the month as macro worsened. 3Q26 will almost certainly experience some tightening, but as of today Upstart appears on track to meet their guidance.
@boon2168 We've waited this long Boon, what's another 4-5 years? 🤷♂️I'm going to wait it out. It takes patience & brass balls to be able to accomplish some goals.
#KeepTheFaith
Let's give @paulxgu a chance, I believe he can get it done.
#ThoseWhoStay 🏆 #HenryInvests #UTPI
cc: @cgreen136
Was I on this or what?
#AI #fintech #stocks #finance #lending #HenryInvests #UTPI
cc: @bradsferguson
https://t.co/RvakaMuSof
Last Seen Hashtags on Sotwe
Most Popular Users
Elon Musk 
@elonmusk
241.7M followers
Barack Obama
@barackobama
119M followers
Cristiano Ronaldo
@cristiano
114.5M followers
Donald J. Trump
@realdonaldtrump
111.9M followers
Narendra Modi
@narendramodi
107.2M followers
Rihanna
@rihanna
98.7M followers
NASA
@nasa
92.4M followers
Justin Bieber
@justinbieber
91.8M followers
KATY PERRY
@katyperry
90M followers
Taylor Swift
@taylorswift13
84M followers
Lady Gaga
@ladygaga
75.5M followers
Virat Kohli
@imvkohli
73.5M followers
Kim Kardashian
@kimkardashian
70.9M followers
YouTube
@youtube
68.8M followers
Neymar Jr
@neymarjr
66.5M followers
Bill Gates
@billgates
65.2M followers
Selena Gomez
@selenagomez
63.1M followers
The Ellen Show
@theellenshow
62.3M followers
CNN
@cnn
61.8M followers
X
@x
60.7M followers